Analysis of Alaska Transportation Sectors to Assess Energy Use and Impacts of Price Shocks and Climate Change Legislation Alaska University Transportation Center Alaska University Transportation Institute UAA of Economic Research Social and Photo Authors: Ginny Fay, Tobias Schwörer, Mouhcine Guettabi, Jeffrey Armagost Date: April 2013 Prepared By: Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage Alaska University Transportation Center UAA Institute of Social and Economic Duckering Building Room 245 Research P.O. Box 755900 3211 Providence Dr. Fairbanks, AK 99775-5900 Anchorage, AK 99508 INE/AUTC13.03 Form approved OMB No. REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Public reporting for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestion for reducing this burden to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-1833), Washington, DC 20503 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (LEAVE 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED BLANK) April 2013 Final Report (8/1/2009-4/31/2013) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Analysis of Alaska Transportation Sectors to Assess Energy Use and Impacts of Price Shocks and Climate Change Legislation 309002 DTRT06-G-0011 6. AUTHOR(S) Ginny Fay, Tobias Schwörer, Mouhcine Guettabi, Jeffrey Armagost 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Institute of Social and Economic Research REPORT NUMBER University of Alaska Anchorage 3211 Providence Drive Anchorage, Alaska 99508 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING Alaska University Transportation Center AGENCY REPORT NUMBER PO Box 755900 INE/AUTC13.03 Fairbanks, AK 99775-5900 11. SUPPLENMENTARY NOTES 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE No restrictions 13. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 words) We analyzed the use of energy by Alaska’s transportation sectors to assess the impact of sudden fuel prices changes. We conducted three types of analysis: 1) Development of broad energy use statistics for each transportation sector, including total annual energy and fuel use, carbon emissions, fuel use per ton-mile and passenger-mile, and cost of fuel per ton-mile and passenger-mile. 2) Economic input-output analysis of air, rail, truck, and water transportation sectors. 3) Adjustment of input-output modeling to reflect sudden fuel price changes to estimate the potential impact on industry output and employment. Alaska air transportation used approximately 1.9 billion gallons of fuel annually; 961 million gallons were used for intra-state and exiting Alaska flights. Water transportation used 101.8 million gallons annually, approximately 84.3 million gallons for intra-state and exiting segments. Railroad and truck transportation used 5.1 and 8.8 million gallons annually, respectively. Simulated fuel price increases resulted in an estimated $456.8 million in value-added losses to the Alaska economy through the increase in cost of transportation services, as well as an equivalent loss in income to Alaska household of $26.8 million. A carbon emissions tax would have the greatest impact on the cost of air transportation services followed by water, trucking and rail. 14- KEYWORDS : transportation, fuel prices, emissions, Alaska, air transportation, water transportation, rail 15. NUMBER OF PAGES transportation, truck transportation, energy economics 16. PRICE CODE N/A 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF OF REPORT CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT Unclassified PAGE ABSTRACT N/A Unclassified Unclassified NSN 7540-01-280-5500 STANDARD FORM 298 (Rev. 2-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 298 Contents List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................... iii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................ iv Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................................ vi Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................... vii Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 6 Background ................................................................................................................................................... 7 Alaska’s Transportation Modes ................................................................................................................ 9 Water Transportation ........................................................................................................................... 9 Trucking ............................................................................................................................................... 13 Railroads.............................................................................................................................................. 15 Aviation ............................................................................................................................................... 16 Research Approach ..................................................................................................................................... 17 Water Transportation ............................................................................................................................. 18 Marine Ships ....................................................................................................................................... 18 Barges .................................................................................................................................................. 19 Ferries ................................................................................................................................................. 19 Land Transportation ................................................................................................................................ 20 Railroad ............................................................................................................................................... 20 Trucking ............................................................................................................................................... 20 Aviation ................................................................................................................................................... 20 Economic Impact Analysis of Fuel Price Changes on the Alaska Economy ............................................. 21 IMPLAN ............................................................................................................................................... 22 Findings and Applications ........................................................................................................................... 23 Fuel Use and Efficiency by Mode ............................................................................................................ 23 Water Transportation ......................................................................................................................... 23 Land Transportation ............................................................................................................................ 30 Aviation ............................................................................................................................................... 33 Intermodal Fuel Use Comparisons ...................................................................................................... 35 Change in Transportation Costs and Impact on Alaska Industries ......................................................... 40 i Impact of Change in Transportation Costs on Alaska Households ......................................................... 52 Carbon Emissions Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 55 Direct Emissions from Fuel Use .......................................................................................................... 55 Carbon Emissions Tax Analysis ............................................................................................................ 57 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................. 61 References 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