BANK OF NAMIBIA BANK OF NAMIBIA QUARTERLY BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 2000 VOLUME 9 No. 3 Registered Office 71 Robert Mugabe Avenue P.O. Box 2882 Windhoek Namibia i QUARTERLY BULLETIN Published by the Research Department of the Bank of Namibia. Any enquiries should be directed to: The Head of Research Department P.O. Box 2882 WINDHOEK NAMIBIA Te l : +264 61 283 5111 Fax: +264 61 283 5231 e-mail: [email protected] ii BANK OF NAMIBIA Bank of Namibia Corporate Charter MISSION The mission of the Bank of Namibia is to promote monetary and financial stability in the interest of the Nation s sustainable economic growth and development. VISION Our vision is to be a centre of excellence - a professional and credible institution, a leader in the areas of economics, banking and finance, driven by competent and dedicated staff. VALUES We are committed to service excellence. We uphold integrity, impartiality, open communication and transparency. We care for our staff, their well being and their contribution to the organisation. We value teamwork. iii QUARTERLY BULLETIN NAMIBIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Economic Indicators Population (Millions) 1.4 1.49 1.54 1.59 1.64 1.69 1.75 1.8 Namibia Dollar per US Dollar 2.85 3.26 3.55 3.63 4.27 4.60 5.49 6.11 Gini Coefficient 0.7 0.7 0.7 Real Sector GDP (N$ mil.) (current prices) 8050 8587 10576 11694 13421 14901 16826 18737 % Change 6.7 23.2 10.6 14.8 11.0 12.9 11.4 GDP (N$ mil) (constant prices) 7017 6897 7335 7607 7770 7975 8165 8410 % Change -1.7 6.4 3.7 2.1 2.6 2.4 3.0 GDP per capita (N$) (constant Prices) 4830 4601 4744 4772 4729 4702 4666 4680 % Change -4.7 3.1 0.6-0.9 -0.6-0.8 0.3 Inflation 17.7 8.5 10.8 10.0 8.0 8.8 6.2 8.6 Monetary & Financial Indicators Broad Money (M2) Annual Growth Rate 28.5 21.5 29.7 23.4 24.3 7.610.7 20.4 Narrow Money (M1) Annual Growth Rate 28.5 53.7 17.9 5.5 64.0 1.1 30.1 24.1 Domestic Credit (N$ millions) 3477.0 4357.3 5398.1 6713.5 8431.9 9257.7 10537.8 12356.0 Private Sector Credit (N$ millions) 3082.9 3854.2 4916.9 6262.3 7016.2 7956.1 8752.8 9233.7 % Change 30.2 25.0 27.627.4 12.0 13.4 10.0 5.5 Prime Rate 18.9 16.5 15.8 18.3 19.8 20.5 21.8 19.43 Bank Rate 17.9 15.4 14.8 16.9 17.5 17.3 18.5 14.08 Treasury Bill Rate 13.9 12.2 11.3 13.9 15.2 15.7 17.3 13.3 Call Account Rate ----14.1 14.5 15.7 12.7 Average Deposit Rate 11.4 9.69.2 10.8 12.612.7 13.0 10.82 External Sector Trade Balance -221.9 -136.8 -304.7 -470.5 -390.3 -1285.2 -1579.8 -1090.6 Current Account Balance 142.9 359.8 305.3 724.3 718.9 393.7 446.6 940.2 Overall BoP Balance -18.7 298.4 266.3 87.3 98.5 312.3 309.4 348.7 Net Foreign Assets -99.0 -132.3 -208.0 -335.6 943.6 876.9 1332.3 2262.1 Gross Official Foreign Reserves 142.4 455.6719.6809.3 907.7 1219.0 1527.2 1877.0 Import Cover in Weeks 1.6 4.3 6.0 5.5 5.2 6.3 7.3 8.3 Public Sector Government Budget Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP -2.4 -1.8 -3.9 -6.4 -2.8 -4.8 -4.5 Domestic Borrowing (Millions) 757.4 1285.5 1551.5 2059.4 2755.4 2514.9 3365.5 4112.3 External Borrowing (Millions) 465.6 490.0 475.0 496.6 487.8 353.8 545.3 729.0 As % of Exports 12.4 11.610.1 9.7 8.1 5.7 8.2 9.6 Total Public Debt 1223.0 1775.5 2026.5 2556.0 3243.2 2868.7 3910.8 4841.3 As % of GDP 14.3 13.7 18.621.1 23.7 19.0 24.0 27.0 Source: Central Bureau of Statistics Bank of Namibia Ministry of Finance iv BANK OF NAMIBIA CONTENT 1. REVIEW OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS . 1 2. REAL SECTOR AND PRICE DEVELOPMENT . 3 2.1 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT . 3 2.2 PERFORMANCE OF THE PRIMARY SECTOR . 3 2.3 PERFORMANCE OF THE SECONDARY SECTOR . 4 2.4 PERFORMANCE OF THE TERTIARY SECTOR . 5 2.5 PRICE TRENDS . 5 3. MONETARY AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS . 7 3.1 MONETARY AGGREGATES . 7 3.2 CREDIT TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR . 8 3.3 MONEY MARKET . 10 3.4 CAPITAL MARKET . 10 4. PUBLIC FINANCE . 12 4.1 FINANCING OF THE BUDGET DEFICIT AND SECURITIES ISSUE . 12 5. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS . 13 5.1 CURRENT ACCOUNT . 13 BOX CURRENT ACCOUNT: METHODOLOGY USED . 16 5.2 CAPITALAND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT . 18 5.3 EXCHANGE RATES . 18 6. ARTICLE TRADE DIVERSIFICATION IN NAMIBIA: AN ANALYSIS OF THE COMPOSITION AND DIRECTION OF TRADE . 22 7. PRESS RELEASES . 27 7.1 PRESS STATEMENT ISSUED PYRAMID SCHEMES, JULY 21, 2000 . 27 7.2 EXCHANGE CONTROL POLICY CHANGES, APRIL 06, 2000 . 29 8. STATISTICAL TABLES . 31 8.1 METHODS AND CONCEPTS . 31 8.2 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS . 32 8.3 MONETARY STATISTICS . 32 8.4 GOVERNMENT FINANCE STATISTICS . 32 8.5 EXTERNAL SECTOR STATISTICS . 32 v BANK OF NAMIBIA 1. REVIEW OF ECONOMIC credit, covering credit extended by the commercial CONDITIONS banks and other banking institutions continued its course in the second quarter of 2000 recording a Economic conditions showed a slowdown growth of 4.7 per cent. For the year ending June 2000, during the second quarter of 2000 as compared with the increase in private sector credit was even more the first quarter of 2000 and the corresponding quarter significant at 13.6 per cent compared with 4.6 per cent of the preceding year. This is reflected in the real GDP, in the previous year. This sharp increase in private which recorded a positive but lower growth rate of 0.9 sector credit over the year can be attributed to the low per cent in the second quarter of 2000 as compared interest rate prevailing since the middle of 1999. The with 3.4 per cent growth in the second quarter of 1999. high demand for credit during the second quarter was The subdued growth occurred in the wake of a also reflected in the tight liquidity conditions of substantial decline witnessed in the output of the commercial banks, the credit to deposit ratio as well as agriculture, mining, fishing and construction sectors, changes in their net foreign assets position. while the government followed by the manufacturing and transport and communication sectors registered a The Namibian financial markets recorded mixed higher growth. The electricity and water, and tourism developments during the second quarter of 2000. sectors have recorded moderate growth. During this period most of the money market rates were adjusted downwards, others either remained The persistent increase in fuel prices may steady or moved up. During this period the Namibian perhaps be the main reason behind the acceleration in Bank rate remained unchanged at 11.5 per cent, but in the consumer price inflation since the first quarter of the wake of higher inflation, the real Bank rate declined 2000. On a quarterly basis, the inflation rates rose from 3.5 per cent in the first quarter to 2.0 per cent in from 7.8 per cent in the first quarter to 9.3 per cent in the second quarter. Similarly, the commercial bank s the second quarter. The corresponding rate for the prime lending rate remained at an average level of second quarter stood at 8.8 per cent in the preceding 15.5 per cent. The real rate, however, declined from year. The increase in the international oil price seems 7.5 per cent in the first quarter to 5.7 in the second to leave little lee way for the authorities in containing quarter. the emerging inflationary pressures. This situation poses a challenge to the authorities in both the The stock market remained subdued during the countries (Namibia and South Africa) in ensuring a second quarter. This is reflected in the decline in relatively stable macro-economic situation. turnover as well as in subdued trends in share prices. Consequently, there was a decline in the market Broad money supply (M2) recorded a modest capitalisation on the Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX) growth during the second quarter of 2000 after it had from N$301.1 billion as at the end of the first quarter to contracted during the first quarter of the year. N$291.3 billion during the second quarter. The local However, on an annual basis, the growth rate of market capitalisation also declined from N$4.0 billion in money supply declined from 16.8 per cent at the end the first quarter to N$3.2 billion in the second quarter. of June 1999 to 12.2 per cent at the end of June 2000. The increase in money supply for the year ending June A preliminary estimate of the budget deficit for 2000 was mainly driven by a strong increase in private the first fiscal quarter of the year 2000 amounted to sector credit and lower interest rates that prevailed N$307.3 million and was financed through treasury during the same period.