‘The Role and Importance of Sri Lanka in the Geopolitical Strategies of China and India’ Bachelor Thesis Political Geography Name: Stan Goudsmit Studentnumber: 10755446 Supervisor: Dr. N.P.C. Beerepoot Second reader: Dr. J.M. Bavinck Study: Sociale Geografie & Planologie Words: 16935 Date: 19-06-2017 Table of contents Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................. 2 Chapter 2: Theoretical Framework ........................................................................................... 4 2.1 Introducing the Balance of Power Theory and Power Transition Theory ...................... 4 2.1.1. A brief general overview of both theories ......................................................................................... 4 2.1.2 Similarities ........................................................................................................................................................ 5 2.1.3 Differences ........................................................................................................................................................ 6 2.2 The extended alliances theories ................................................................................................. 10 2.3 The different Powers ...................................................................................................................... 11 2.3.3 Great Powers ................................................................................................................................................ 11 2.3.2 Middle Powers and Regional Powers ................................................................................................ 12 2.3.3 Small Powers ................................................................................................................................................ 13 2.4 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................... 14 Chapter 3: Methodology ............................................................................................................. 15 3.1 Research design and approach ................................................................................................... 15 3.2 Method ................................................................................................................................................ 15 Chapter 4: The geopolitical strategies of China and India .............................................. 17 4.1 Military-security .............................................................................................................................. 17 4.2 The diplomatic field ........................................................................................................................ 19 4.2.1 Diplomatic battles in the Asian Organizations ............................................................................... 19 4.2.2 The latest foreign policy under Modi and Xi Jinping ................................................................... 20 4.3 Economic Field ................................................................................................................................. 21 4.4 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................... 23 Chapter 5: The importance and role of small power Sri Lanka .................................... 24 5.1 The Sri Lanka relations in the past ............................................................................................ 24 5.1.1 Sino-Sri Lanka relation ............................................................................................................................. 24 5.1.2 Indo-Sri Lanka relation ............................................................................................................................ 25 5.2 The importance and concern of Sri Lanka’s geographical location ................................ 26 5.3 The influence of Sri Lanka’s domestic policy on the New Great Game .......................... 28 5.4 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................... 29 Chapter 6: Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 30 6.1 Findings theory ................................................................................................................................ 30 6.2 Role and importance of Sri Lanka .............................................................................................. 32 References: ..................................................................................................................................... 34 1 Chapter 1: Introduction "Whosoever controls the Indian Ocean, dominates Asia. In the 21st century, the destiny of the world will be decided upon its waters” (The Indian Government 2002). That is what Captain Alfred Thayer Mahan said a century ago. He was an American naval officer during the 19th century and, moreover, one of the most celebrated naval historians of his era. In 2002 the Indian government used the quotation in its press release ‘Guarding the coastline of the country’ to emphasize the importance of the Indian Ocean. The prediction of Captain Mahan now looks to be more true than ever before. The blue waters of the Indian Ocean host some of the most important and busiest sea- lanes of the world. Approximately 50% of all the container traffic and 70% of all petroleum products go through the Indian Ocean (Sellstrom 2015). Therefore, a lot of countries have an interest going through the Indian Ocean. One of those countries with a rising interest in the Indian Ocean is China. The arrival of China results in rivalries in the Indian Ocean. Kaplan (2010: 8) writes in his book Monsoon that there is no ocean in the world that is more in need of strategic stability. He continues by mentioning that the Indian Ocean is the platform for two rivalries. On the global scale China and the US are competing with each other in the Indian Ocean and India and China are the two main players in the regional rivalry. According to Admiral Scott Swift, US Pacific Fleet commander, is the presence of China in the Indian Ocean adding to a sense of ‘anxiety’ in the region (The Times of India 2016). This thesis, however, will focus on the regional rivalry between India and China. The rivalry between India and China has been labeled in the media as the New Great Game (See: BBC 2011 & Mullin & Poplin 2015). In this game China and India are struggling for political and commercial influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Both countries have started strategies, as will be shown later in this thesis, to rule the regional rivalry in its favor. In the past both countries had mainly continental aspirations (Mohan 2015). However, both countries are these days more focusing on their maritime aspirations. Whereas 70% of India’s energy requirements are going through the Indian Ocean, China has an even bigger share with 82% going through the Indian Ocean (Sokinda 2015). This shows the high interest of both countries in the Indian Ocean. The existing literature is mainly focused on the military capacities of India and China (Sellstrom 2015). However, both countries have made clear that war will not be the solution (Mullen & Poplin 2015). Mullen and Poplin (2015) argue in their article in Foreign Affairs that this fight will be fought with the use of soft power diplomacy. Nye (2004) defines soft power as the ability of a state to make its own interest the interest of another state without using force. One of the countries that is subject to the soft power diplomacy of both India and China is Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka is one of the islands that has a central location in the Indian Ocean. Although it is a small island in a big ocean, it is one of the focus points for both countries in their geopolitical strategies. Evans (2016) calls Sri Lanka in his article a place where India’s and China’s sphere of influence overlap. Therefore, this thesis will further analyze the role and importance of Sri Lanka in the geopolitical strategies of China and India. It will answer the main research question by using the power of balance theory and power transition theory as theories. These 2 theories, with extensions, and necessary definitions will be reviewed in chapter 2. In the next chapter the methodology will be explained that is used to conduct this research. Chapter 4 will study the strategies of India and China on an international scale to answer the sub-question: How are China and India competing with each other for geopolitical power in the New Great Game? In Chapter 5 Sri Lanka will be analyzed on a national scale to answer the sub-question: How is Sri Lanka playing a role in the strategies of China and India? These two sub-questions will answer the main research question of this thesis: Why is Sri Lanka of great importance for India and China in their regional rivalry in the Indo-pacific region? By answering the main question this thesis will contribute to the existing literature on the rise of both China and India and its implications. Krishnappa and Sisodia (2009) argue that only since 2009 India has been part of the debate on the developing construction of a new security