Observed climate change in the Himalayas Hemant Borgaonkar, IITM Science and Training Workshop on Climate Change over the High Mountains of Asia during 9 -12 October, 2018, IITM, Pune • Temperature analysis ……trends • Rainfall analysis…………….trends • Dendroclimatic reconstructions over the Himalayan region Sr. Station State Lat. Long. Alti. Temperatur Rainfall No. (M) e 1 Srinagar J&K 340 05’ 740 50’ 1587 1901-2016 1892-2016 2 Quazigund J&K 330 30’ 750 10’ 1630 1962-2016 1962-2016 72O 75O 78O 81O N | | | | 3 Banihal J&K 330 35’ 750 05’ 1690 1962-2016 1962-2016 36O- * 4 Leh J&K 340 09’ 770 34’ 3506 1901-1990 1876-1990 33O- * * * 5 Shimla H.P. 310 06’ 770 10’ 2202 1901-2007 1863-2007 * O * 30 - 0 0 ** * * 6 Bhunter H.P. 31 50’ 77 10’ 1067 1964-2014 1964-2014 *** * 7 Dehra Dun U.K. 300 19’ 780 02’ 682 1901-2015 1863-2007 8 Mukteswar U.K 290 28’ 790 39’ 2311 1901-2014 1964-2014 9 Mussoorie U.K. 300 27’ 780 05’ 2042 1901-1990 1863-2007 10 Joshimath U.K. 300 33’ 790 34’ 2045 ---- 1871-1987 11 Almora U.K. 290 30’ 790 35’ 1642 ---- 1856-1978 12 Nainital U.K. 290 25’ 790 27’ 2084 ---- 1849-1978 13 Pauri U.K. 300 07’ 780 44’ 1824 ---- 1871-1978 14 Pithoragarh U.K. 30001’ 800 14’ 1514 ---- 1864-1978 15 30 C) Srinagar = 1 C) 30 Banihal = 3 30 O O 10 20 20 20 5 10 10 10 Rainfall(Cm) Rainfall(Cm) 0 0 Temperature( 0 0 Temperature( J FMAMJ JASOND J FMAMJ JASOND Month Month Qazigund = 2 1.5 20 C) Leh = 4 20 30 C) O O 15 20 1 10 10 5 10 0.5 0 Rainfall(Cm) Rainfall(Cm) Temperature( 0 0 Temperature( 0 -10 J FMAMJ JASOND J FMAMJ JASOND Month Month 15 30 C) Bhunter = 6 O 60 Shimla = 5 30 C) O 10 20 40 20 5 10 20 10 Rainfall(Cm) Rainfall(Cm) 0 0 Temperature( 0 0 Temperature( J FMAMJ JASOND J FMAMJ JASOND Month Month 80 30 C) C) O 40 Mukteswar = 8 20 O Mussoorie = 9 60 30 20 20 10 40 10 20 Rainfall(Cm) 10 Rainfall(Cm) Temperature( 0 0 Temperature( 0 0 J FMAMJ JASOND JFMAMJ JASOND Month Month 80 40 C) 30 Dehradun = 7 O Almora = 11 60 30 20 40 20 20 10 10 Rainfall(Cm) Rainfall(Cm) 0 0 Temperature( 0 J FMAMJ JASOND Month J FMAMJ JASOND Month 30 Joshimath = 10 80 Nainital = 12 20 60 40 10 Rainfall(Cm) Rainfall(Cm) 20 0 0 J FMAMJ JASOND Month J FMAMJ JASOND Month 40 Pauri = 13 40 Pithoragarh = 14 30 30 20 20 Rainfall(Cm) 10 Rainfall(Cm) 10 0 0 J FMAMJ JASOND J FMAMJ JASOND Month Month Monthly variations of rainfall and temperature of western Himalayan stations based on long-term averages. Temperature Analysis Mean, standard deviation and long-term trends (trend/100 yrs) of max. min and mean temperature over the Western Himalaya Station Data Parameter Winter Pre-Monsoon Monsoon Post-Monsoon Annual Period Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Mean 7.3 -1.6 2.8 19.1 7.3 13.2 29.0 15.7 22.4 18.9 3.0 10.9 19.5 7.2 13.3 Shrinagar 1901-2016 s.d. 2.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 Trend 2.2** 1.1** 1.7** 1.5** 0.7** 1.1** 0.0 0.3* 0.2* 0.6 1.5** 1.0** 1.0** 0.8** 0.9** Mean 11.7 0.7 6.2 21.2 8.1 14.7 28.1 15.5 21.8 21.5 5.3 13.4 21.1 8.3 14.8 Banihal 1962-2016 s.d. 1.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.7 Trend 5.2** 2.4** 3.8** 3.9** 1.1 2.4** 0.7 0.5 0.6 4.0** 1.2 2.6** 3.1** 1.3* 2.2** Mean 7.8 -2.1 2.8 19.1 6.4 12.7 27.3 14.4 20.9 18.8 3.3 11.1 19.0 6.4 12.7 Quazigund 1962-2016 s.d. 2.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.6 Trend 7.6** 2.9** 5.3** 3.4** -0.8* 1.3* -0.3 -1.1 -0.7 2.9* -1.3* 0.8 3.1** 0.0 1.5** Mean 1.8 -12.2 -5.2 12.3 -1.1 5.6 23.2 8.6 15.9 11.5 -3.8 3.8 13.2 -1.1 6.0 Leh 1901-1990 s.d. 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 Trend 1.4 -0.3 0.6 0.7 2.2** 1.4** 3.4** 3.7** 3.6** 0.6 -0.2 0.2 1.8** 1.8** 1.8** Mean 10.1 3.1 6.6 18.8 10.7 14.8 21.3 15.1 18.2 16.6 9.0 12.8 17.1 10.0 13.5 Shimla 1901-2007 s.d. 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.9 Trend 3.8** 1.2* 2.5** 2.9** 0.8* 1.9** 2.7** 0.2 1.4** 3.7** 0.6* 2.2** 3.2** 0.7* 1.9** Mean 16.9 2.2 9.6 26.8 9.7 18.3 31.3 18.2 24.8 25.4 7.3 16.4 25.6 10.3 18.0 Bhunter 1964-2014 s.d. 1.5 0.6 0.8 1.5 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 Trend 5.0** 1.0 3.0** 2.2 1.1 1.6 0.3 1.0 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.7** 1.1** 1.4** Mean 20.6 7.1 13.9 31.3 16.7 24.0 31.1 22.4 26.8 26.7 13.2 20.0 27.9 15.6 21.7 Dehradun 1901-2015 s.d. 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 Trend 1.5** -0.1 0.7* 0.3 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 -.01 1.0** 0.0 0.6** 0.6** -0.3 0.2 Mean 11.8 2.6 7.2 20.2 9.6 14.9 21.2 13.8` 17.5 17.5 7.8 12.6 18.0 8.9 13.5 Mukteswar 1901-2014 s.d. 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 Trend 3.2** 0.1 1.7** 2.0** -0.6* 0.7 0.9** -0.6* 0.2 2.2** -0.3 1.0** 1.9** -0.4* 0.8** Mean 11.2 3.4 7.3 20.1 11.1 15.6 21.1 15.3 18.2 16.9 9.2 13.0 17.7 10.3 14.0 Massoorie 1901-1990 s.d. 1.4 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 Trend 2.6** 0.2 1.4** 0.8 -0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.4* -0.1 1.9** 0.2 1.1** 1.2** -0.1 0.5** * p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01 Long-term trends(trend/100 yrs.) in maximum temperature DJF MAM JJAS 72O O O O 72O O O O O 75 78 81 E 75 78 81 E 72 75O 78O 81OE | | | | | | N | N | N | | | | O O 36 - 36 - 36O- O O 33 - 33 - 33O- O O 30 - 30 - 30O- O O 27 - 27 - 27O- 72O 75O 78O 81O E O 75O 78O O E N | | | | 72 81 N | | | | 36O- 36O- 33O- 33O- : +ve sig.> 5% : +ve non-sig 30O- 30O- : -ve sig > 5% : -ve non-sig 27O- 27O- ON ANNUAL Long-term trends(trend/100 yrs.) in minimum temperature DJF MAM JJAS 72O O O O 72O O O O O 75 78 81 E 75 78 81 E 72 75O 78O 81OE | | | | | | N | N | N | | | | O O 36 - 36 - 36O- O O 33 - 33 - 33O- O O 30 - 30 - 30O- O O 27 - 27 - 27O- 72O 75O 78O 81O E O 75O 78O O E N | | | | 72 81 N | | | | 36O- 36O- 33O- 33O- : +ve sig.> 5% : +ve non-sig 30O- 30O- : -ve sig > 5% : -ve non-sig 27O- 27O- ON ANNUAL Long-term trends(trend/100 yrs.) in Mean Temperature DJF MAM JJAS 72O O O O 72O O O O O 75 78 81 E 75 78 81 E 72 75O 78O 81OE | | | | | | N | N | N | | | | O O 36 - 36 - 36O- O O 33 - 33 - 33O- O O 30 - 30 - 30O- O O 27 - 27 - 27O- 72O 75O 78O 81O E O 75O 78O O E N | | | | 72 81 N | | | | 36O- 36O- 33O- 33O- : +ve sig.> 5% : +ve non-sig 30O- 30O- : -ve sig > 5% : -ve non-sig 27O- 27O- ON ANNUAL Annual mean surface temperature variations of western Himalayan stations with linear trend in red dotted line.