THE ARAB UPRISINGS EXPLAINED NEW CONTENTIOUS POLITICS IN THE MIDDLE EAST EDITED BY MARC LYNCH THE ARAB UPRISINGS EXPLAINED Columbia Studies in Middle East Politics Columbia Studies in Middle East Politics Marc Lynch, Series Editor Columbia Studies in Middle East Politics presents academically rigorous, well-written, relevant, and accessible books on the rapidly transforming politics of the Middle East for an interested academic and policy audience. Sectarian Politics in the Gulf: From the Iraq War to the Arab Uprisings, Frederic M. Wehrey Edited by MARC LYNCH THE ARAB UPRISINGS EXPLAINED NEW CONTENTIOUS POLITICS IN THE MIDDLE EAST COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS NEW YORK Columbia University Press Publishers Since 1893 New York Chichester, West Sussex cup.columbia.edu Copyright © 2014 Columbia University Press All rights reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The Arab uprisings explained : new contentious politics in the Middle East / edited by Marc Lynch. pages cm. — (Columbia studies in Middle East politics) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-231-15884-8 (cloth : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-231-15885-5 (pbk. : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-231-53749-0 (ebook) 1. Arab Spring, 2010– 2. Revolutions—Arab countries—History—21st century. 3. Democratization—Arab countries—History—21st century 4. Arab countries—Politics and government—21st century. I. Lynch, Marc, 1969– JQ1850.A91A826 2014 909'.097492708312—dc23 2014009250 Columbia University Press books are printed on permanent and durable acid-free paper. This book is printed on paper with recycled content. Printed in the United States of America c 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 p 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 cover design: Martin Hinze cover image: © Getty References to websites (URLs) were accurate at the time of writing. Neither the author nor Columbia University Press is responsible for URLs that may have expired or changed since the manuscript was prepared. Contents Acknowledgments vii 1. Introduction 1 Marc Lynch 2. Theories of Transition 29 Daniel Brumberg Part I: Regional and Cross-National Dimensions 55 3. Diffusion and Demonstration 57 David Patel, Valerie Bunce, and Sharon Wolchik 4. Authoritarian Learning and Counterrevolution 75 Steven Heydemann and Reinoud Leenders 5. Media, Old and New 93 Marc Lynch 6. Inter-Arab Relations and the Regional System 110 Curtis R. Ryan VI CONTENTS Part II: Key Actors 125 7. States and Bankers 127 Clement M. Henry 8. Arab Militaries 142 Robert Springborg 9. Political Geography 160 Jillian Schwedler and Ryan King 10. Labor Movements and Organizations 180 Vickie Langohr 11. Islamist Movements 201 Quinn Mecham 12. Elections 218 Ellen Lust Part III: Public Opinion 247 13. Political System Preferences of Arab Publics 249 Mark Tessler and Michael Robbins 14. Political Attitudes of Youth Cohorts 273 Michael Hoffmann and Amaney Jamal 15. Constitutional Revolutions and the Public Sphere 296 Nathan J. Brown 16. Conclusion 313 Marc Lynch List of Contributors 317 Index 319 Acknowledgments This book originated in the May 2011 annual conference of the Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS), which I direct at George Wash- ington University. Convened only a few months after the outbreak of the Arab uprisings, the workshop brought together more than thirty leading political scientists specializing on the Middle East, along with half a dozen specialists on other regions. Following those intensive discussions, I invited the participants to submit proposals for what eventually became this book. A smaller group, including many of the authors in this volume, then con- vened at the American University of Cairo for a conference on the Egyptian revolution, which POMEPS organized with Lisa Anderson. We discussed in depth the draft chapters at the May 2012 POMEPS annual conference and also at an October 2012 GW workshop comparing the Arab uprisings with the post-Soviet revolutions. In addition to the authors who contributed to this volume, I would like to thank the many outstanding scholars who commented on the draft chapters or par- ticipated in the conferences along the way. My thanks go to Holger Albrecht, Michael Barnett, Mark Beissinger, Eva Bellin, Lindsey Benstead, Dina Bishara, Jason Brownlee, Rex Brynen, Melani Cammett, Sheila Carapico, Janine Clark, Daniel Corstange, Jill Crystal, Emma Deputy, Kristin Diwan, John Entelis, Elea- nor Gao, Gregory Gause, Henry Hale, Michael Herb, Manal Jamal, Toby Jones, Charles Kurzman, Adria Lawrence, Rabab el-Mahdi, Peter Moore, Gwenn Okruhulik, Anne Peters, Wendy Pearlman, Dina Rashed, Glenn Robinson, Etel Solingen, Josh Stacher, Shibley Telhami, Lisa Wedeen, Stacy Yadav, and Sean Yom. Many more contributed either directly or indirectly. VIII ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The conferences and research for this volume were made possible through the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Social Science Research Council. I would particularly like to thank Hilary Wiesner and Thomas Asher for their enthusiastic support for POMEPS over the years. Mary Casey and Maria Kornalian played a pivotal role in organizing and running the POMEPS network and conferences and offered editorial assistance on the Middle East Channel. Shana Marshall helped organize several of the key conferences. Susan Glasser and Blake Hounshell supported Foreign Policy’s Middle East Channel, a key part of the POMEPS initiative. Cara Beining and Gregory McGowan provided edi- torial assistance in the preparation of this manuscript. Finally, my thanks to Anne Routon of Columbia University Press for believing in this book and making it the foundation of our new series, Columbia Studies in Middle East Politics. Above all, my thanks to the entire intellectual community of the political science of the Middle East. Despite a wide range of methodological, theo- retical, and political differences, these scholars have managed to construct powerful explanations for extremely important political developments and to offer useful, effective guidance for those attempting to fathom their meaning. The last few years have proven more than ever before that this is an intellectual mission worth pursuing. THE ARAB UPRISINGS EXPLAINED 1 Introduction MARC LYNCH The period of contentious politics unleashed by Mohammad Bouazizi’s self-immolation in December 2010 in Tunisia has reshaped the terrain of regional politics and challenged the theories that have dominated the literature on the comparative politics of the Middle East. The broad out- lines of the story are familiar.1 In the face of massive popular protests, the Tunisian president, Zine al-Abdine Ben Ali, was deposed, followed a month later by the removal of the Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak. A wave of protest then swept across the region as Arab citizens, inspired by the example of change broadcast on al-Jazeera and spread over increas- ingly ubiquitous social media, rose up to challenge their own entrenched authoritarian rulers. By the end of February 2011, virtually every country in the Arab world was beset by tumultuous demonstrations demanding fundamental political change. Whereas Ben Ali’s and Mubarak’s regimes gave in, the next wave of chal- lenged leaders fought back. Some, like Morocco’s king, offered limited, pre- emptive political concessions, while some wealthy regimes like Saudi Ara- bia’s combined repression with lavish public spending. Others, determined not to share the fate of their deposed counterparts, responded to peaceful challenges with brutal force. Libya’s Muammar al-Qaddafi unleashed the full force of his army on peaceful protesters, triggering a virtually unprece- dented international military intervention to prevent a slaughter of rebels in the city of Benghazi. In Bahrain, a carefully negotiated political power- sharing bargain collapsed as Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) troops poured in to the tiny island and the al-Khalifa dynasty began a systematic purge of its political opponents. The Yemeni president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, 2 INTRODUCTION clung to power as virtually every sector of society and even the military turned against him. Syrian troops unloaded the fury of a Baathist regime on protesters in Deraa, which led to the escalation of protests across the country. The viciousness of these responses to popular challenges suggest- ed that the institutions of authoritarian rule had not lost their relevance. Some regimes seemed to right themselves quickly, while others appeared to slide toward civil war. Like most of the regimes and almost all U.S. policymakers, Ameri- can political science was ill prepared for this tumult. For the last several decades, the political science literature on the region concentrated on the resilience of entrenched authoritarianism, the relative weakness of civil society, and the apparently limited effect of the diffusion of novel norms and ideas through new information and communications technologies. The first responses to the uprisings probably overstated their novelty and scope in the heat of enthusiasm for long-denied popular challenges. Now, however, political scientists should take stock of the uprisings and what they did and did not signify. Whether the upsurge in contentious political action will bring enduring political change remains highly uncertain. We also cannot yet define and measure the political changes that have occurred. Even the fall of the dic- tators in Tunisia and Egypt only opened the door to new political strug- gles, which left many of the revolutionaries at home and observers abroad deeply concerned.