This paper has been prepared by the Ukrainian non- governmental organization “European Pravda” RESEARCH AUTHORS: Natalie Ischenko (Gumba) – independent analyst, Yuriy Panchenko – editor of “European Pravda”, Sergiy Sydorenko – editor of “European Pravda” TRANSLATOR Mariya Yemets EDITOR OF THE ENGLISH VERSION Lesia Dubenko This research was funded by the Kharkiv office of theKonrad- Adenauer-Stiftung in Ukraine. The authors are responsible for the content of this research. CONTENTS 03 SUMMARY 07 MOLDOVA 29 GEORGIA 41 LESSONS LEARNED FOR UKRAINE 01 01 SUMMARY The military conflict in Donbas is a challenge for the Ukrainian government. On the one hand, Kyiv needs to engage the population of the non-controlled territories in the national election process. On the other, it has to figure out how to ensure that the elections are democratic, free, and fair. These endeavours require a set of solutions, which the Ukrainian government currently lacks. In this analytical note, we present an analysis of how Moldova and Georgia managed to organize the electoral participation for citizens living in the non- controlled territories. It analyses both the solutions and the shortcomings of the relevant procedures and practices. The takeaways of our analysis are the following: Neither Moldova nor Georgia holds national elections directly in the occupied territories. Also Chișinău and Tbilisi do not hold local elections there and do not recognize the de facto authorities on the territories not controlled by the government. Accordingly, Ukraine cannot replicate their experience for organization of elections on the occupied Ukrainian territories before their reintegration. Nonetheless, some of the practical solutions and experience gained by Moldova and Georgia over decades could contribute to the discussion whether it is possible to hold local elections in the occupied areas of Donbas. The citizens of Moldova and Georgia from the occupied territories can only vote in the government-controlled territory: all the preparatory work takes place exclusively there, not in the occupied parts. Besides, the Moldovan government has recently decided to create special polling stations for the Transnistrian voters. The voting process in Moldova is regulated by the country’s Electoral Code, by-laws and decisions of authorities at all levels. Ukraine could scrutinize these approaches and decide whether their implementation is possible in the country. Analytical Note 3 During national elections, it is impossible to hold a full-scale electoral campaign in the occupied territories. Neither Ukrainian political parties nor politicians can carry out a full-fledged election campaign in Crimea (where Russia does not deny its rule) or Donbas. Even though they blame the ongoing military conflict for this problem in Donbas, the experience of Moldova and Georgia, both of which have had frozen conflicts” for decades, shows that it is still virtually impossible to do it. Even in Transnistria, a region where hostilities terminated 28 years ago and which has been partially integrated into Moldova in terms of both economic and interpersonal ties, Moldovan politicians cannot carry out neither a limited nor a full-scale campaign. There is no political pluralism or freedom of speech in the occupied territories. Yet, it is subjected to continuous propaganda. The fact that there is no real political competition further augments the problem and violates the voting rights of the local population. Furthermore, these circumstances cast doubts on how democratic the electoral process really is, even when the voting takes place outside the occupied territories. Neither Moldova nor Georgia has managed to find a solution to this problem. Even though Moldovan politicians and experts are aware of the problem, in their view, it cannot serve as a reason to deprive the citizens from the uncontrolled territories of their right to vote. The constitutional authorities in Moldova and Georgia are unable to ensure that the occupied territories respect the electoral process’s legal procedures. This could lead to the unpunished practice of vote “trading” among the residents of the occupied territories. The media and the international observers note that it was particularly widespread during the 2019 parliamentary elections in Moldova. Since the central authorities cannot pre-empt such fraud in the uncontrolled territories, the overall legitimacy of the electoral process in these areas is often under question. In Ukraine, this problem is particularly acute and requires being tackled. Otherwise, the voters might be dragged into vote- buying schemes. 4 Elections involving uncontrolled territories It should be noted that neither Moldova nor Georgia has managed to fully realize the rights of voters living in the uncontrolled territories. This is due to the fact that the politicians are unable to carry out a proper election campaign and the inability to ensure that the vote fully meets the standards of democracy and freedom of choice. At the moment, international institutions lack ready solutions on how to carry out democratic and and free elections in the occupied territories. It is therefore likely that all three countries — Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine — will have to come up with a one-type solution that would comply with the basic standards of democracy and freedom of choice. To fully ensure that the citizens living in the occupied areas of Donbas and Crimea get to vote and that the elections are democratic, Ukraine will have to consider all the bottlenecks and challenges. Otherwise, the overall electoral process’s democracy and legitimacy could be jeopardized. Analytical Note 5 02 Note. Map of the 1990s of Map Note. 6 02Elections involving uncontrolled territories MOLDOVA Official Chișinău does not recognize elections held in Transnistria, the uncontrolled territory, by its de-facto authorities. Nor does the Republic of Moldova (hereinafter RM) organize voting in the occupied territories. The citizens of the RM, as well as those residing in Transnistria, are eligible to participate in the national elections. «Our state gave them citizenship. Thus, we have to ensure that they can participate in the elections», says Ion Manole, the executive director at the Promo-LEX association, which monitors elections and deals with Transnistria- related issues1. Yet, the voters residing in Transnistria, can only vote in the government- controlled territory. Unlike the Ukrainian and Georgian conflicts, the Transnistrian one did not cause a massive displacement of the population to the government-controlled territories neither during its ‘hot’ period at the beginning of the 1990s nor after it. This means that the elections are being organized for the Moldovan citizens, living in the self-proclaimed “Transnistrian Moldavian Republic”. Yet, the design of these norms also effectively apply to the internal migrants. After all, there are many people in Moldova who are studying, working, or temporarily living in the government-controlled territories while keeping their residence registration in Transnistria. Analytical Note 7 01 BACKGROUND While the citizens of Moldova in Transnistria have always had the right to vote in the national elections, until recently they remained inactive and did not exercise this right. The de facto authorities in Tiraspol have not facilitated their participation; sometimes they even tried to impede it. However, according to a joint research project by “NewsMaker” (Moldova) and “European Pravda” (Ukraine)2, the situation has recently changed. The first drastic increase of voter activity in Transnistria took place during the presidential elections in 2016 when Maia Sandu and Igor Dodon were competing in the final round (the latter won the elections). The turnout of Transnistrian voters in the second round was higher than ever before: 16,7 thousand people came to the polling station (during the 1st round, the respective number stood at 6,9 thousand whereas in 2014 a total of 9,3 thousand Transnistrian voters participated in the parliamentary elections. Before that the number was even lower). This is when the media first reported about the organized transportation of Transnistrian voters to the polling stations. When the results of the 2nd round were announced, some citizens took to the streets of Chișinău: the protesters demanded to hold the 2nd round of the election again, claiming that the Transnistrian voters had been transported to the polling stations to ensure Igor Dodon’s victory. However, back then the Transnistrian voters did not play a key role in his victory: Mr. Dodon was ahead of Sandu by almost 67,5 thousand votes. Eventually, the situation calmed down. In the 2019 parliamentary elections, the Transnistrians voters were even more active. These elections were held under the mixed electoral system (50% of MPs were chosen via the proportional system; 50% via single-member constituencies). For the first time, Chișinău created two constituencies for the Transnistrians alongside. As a result, the number of the Transnistrian voters doubled even compared to the 2016 elections: around 37 thousand voters, about 2,6% of the total turnout, came to the polling stations. 8 Elections involving uncontrolled territories Besides, the government also opened 47 specialized polling stations in the government-controlled territory for the Transnistrian voters in the government- controlled territory. Before that, Transnistrians had voted at the usual polling stations that drew up dedicated lists for them,