How Ireland Voted 2007 This page intentionally left blank How Ireland Voted 2007: The Full Story of Ireland’s General Election Edited by Michael Gallagher Michael Marsh palgrave macmillan Editorial Matter and Selection © Michael Gallagher and Michael Marsh 2008 Chapters 1–13 and Appendices © Palgrave Macmillan Ltd 2008 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2008 978-0-230-50038-9 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their right to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2008 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St Martin’s Press LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 978-0-230-20198-9 paperback ISBN 978-0-230-20198-9 ISBN 978-0-230-59799-0 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230597990 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. 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A catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 Contents List of tables and figures vii Notes on contributors ix Preface xi Glossary xiv List of abbreviations xv Chronology of 2007 election campaign xvi Illustrations xix 1 The background to the election 1 Gary Murphy 2 The fulfilment of election pledges 19 Rory Costello and Robert Thomson 3 Campaign strategies and political marketing 33 Neil Collins and Patrick Butler 4 Candidate selection: democratic centralism or managed democracy? 48 Liam Weeks 5 The view from the campaign trail 65 Niall Collins, Terence Flanagan, Kathleen O’Meara and Niall Ó Brolcháin 6 The earthquake that never happened: analysis of the results 78 Michael Gallagher 7 Explanations for party choice 105 Michael Marsh 8 The polls: a clear improvement 132 Gail McElroy and Michael Marsh 9 The election as horse race: betting and the election 148 Michael Gallagher 10 The media and the campaign 167 Heinz Brandenburg and Zbyszek Zalinski 11 The Seanad election 187 Theresa Reidy 12 Government formation in 2007 205 Eoin O’Malley 13 Fianna Fáil and Irish party competition 218 R. Kenneth Carty vi How Ireland Voted 2007 Appendices Liam Weeks Appendix 1: results of the 2007 general election 232 Appendix 2: members of the 30th Dáil 238 Appendix 3: the government and ministers of state 244 Appendix 4: the Irish electoral system 246 Appendix 5: regulation of campaign spending 248 Index 250 List of Tables and Figures Tables 2.1 Election pledges on socio-economic issues from the 2002 manifestos 22 2.2 The fulfilment of socio-economic election pledges in the 2002–07 government period 25 4.1 Occupational backgrounds of candidates, 2007 59 4.2 Political experience of candidates, 2007 60 4.3 Gender and family links of candidates, 2007 61 6.1 Fate of candidates at the 2007 election 80 6.2 Result of the 2007 election, with changes since 2002 82 6.3 Fianna Fáil performance under six leaders, 1927–2007 83 6.4 Party gains and losses, 2007 85 6.5 Transfer patterns at the 2007 election 94 6.6 Constituencies where transfers affected the outcome 96 7.1 Preference for government, 2002 and 2007 110 7.2 Issues mentioned as influencing vote, 2002 and 2007 111 7.3 Party preferences of various social groups 115 7.4 Party supporters in different social classes, 1997–2007 117 7.5 Closeness to a party and party choice 118 7.6 Relationship between party choice and issue salience 119 7.7 Voters’ assessment of the TV debates, 1997–2007 121 7.8 Party preferences by preference for government 123 7.9 A multivariate model of party choice 125 7.10 Impact of perceived leader competence on choice of government 128 8.1 Accuracy of campaign polls in predicting final outcome 135 8.2 Expectations from a poll of polls 136 8.3 Results of constituency polls 137 8.4 Raw and adjusted vote shares in final IMS and RED C polls 140 8.5 Raw and adjusted vote shares in final TNS mrbi poll 142 8.6 Differences between vote intention and reported vote in final RED C poll 144 9.1 Expected composition of next government, election day 155 9.2 Shortest and longest odds about government options, 1 January–24 May 2007 156 9.3 Betting on winners in Dublin North constituency 157 9.4 Overrounds in election betting markets 158 vii viii How Ireland Voted 2007 9.5 Predictions of spread betting markets, election day 160 10.1 Readership of Irish national newspapers, 2006 168 10.2 Prominence of campaign coverage in the Irish press 173 11.1 Composition of the Seanad electorate 189 11.2 Candidates put forward by nominating bodies at the 2007 Seanad election 191 11.3 Candidates put forward by Oireachtas members at the 2007 Seanad election 192 11.4 Candidates put forward by affiliation, 2007 Seanad election 193 11.5 Results of the panel elections 199 11.6 Composition of 23rd Seanad 202 12.1 Vote intention for alternative coalition governments 206 12.2 Party seat strengths in the 166-member 30th Dáil 207 12.3 Some post-election coalition options 207 13.1 Fianna Fáil’s quarter-century from 1977 221 13.2 Fianna Fáil’s electoral and parliamentary decline, 1969–2007 224 A1.1 Electorate, valid votes, and vote for each party 232 A1.2 Turnout and percentage votes for each party 234 A1.3 Seats and candidates by party 236 A2.1 Members of the 30th Dáil 238 Figures 1.1 Party support in opinion polls, November 2005–April 2007 16 7.1 GDP quarterly growth rates during the 1997–02 and 2002–07 governments (four quarter moving average) 106 7.2 Satisfaction with government, 1997–2002 and 2002–07 107 7.3 Satisfaction with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael leaders, 1997–2002 and 2002–07 108 8.1 Ratio between candidates of same party in the final local poll and the election: Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael only 139 10.1 TV3’s 5:30 News election coverage 174 10.2 Newspaper issue agenda, 30 April–24 May 175 10.3 Coverage of three main campaign issues over time 176 10.4 Party coverage in national newspapers 182 10.5 Party time allocation on RTÉ radio and TV election coverage 183 13.1 Party system fragmentation, 1969–2007 223 13.2 Dáil seats contested by Fianna Fáil 226 13.3 Fianna Fáil’s electoral system bonus 227 13.4 Fianna Fáil candidates, votes and seats, 1969–2007 227 13.5 Trends in major party vote shares, 1967–2007 228 Notes on Contributors Heinz Brandenburg (PhD, Trinity College Dublin) is a lecturer in Politics at the University of Aberdeen. His teaching and research focuses on the field of political communication. His interests include the application of quantitative methods to the study of electoral campaigns and political rhetoric, the relationship between the military and the media, and the alleged value of online media for political deliberation. Patrick Butler is Associate Professor of Marketing at Melbourne Business School, University of Melbourne, Australia. Formerly based at Trinity College Dublin, he remains fascinated by Irish politics and elections. R. Kenneth Carty is Professor of Political Science and Brenda and David McLean Chair in Canadian Studies at the University of British Columbia. He recently served as Director of Research for the first Citizens’ Assembly on Electoral Reform. The author of many studies of party organisation, political leadership and electoral institutions, his first book was Party and Parish Pump: Electoral Politics in Ireland (Ontario, 1981). Neil Collins is Professor of Government at University College Cork. He has written extensively on Irish politics. His most recent book is Modernising Irish Government: the Politics of Administrative Reform (Dublin, 2007), co-authored by Patrick Butler and Terry Cradden. Rory Costello is a doctoral candidate in the Department of Political Science, Trinity College Dublin, and an IRCHSS Government of Ireland Scholar. His research interests include decision-making in the European Union and Irish politics. His PhD dissertation focuses on legislative competition between the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers. Michael Gallagher teaches Irish politics and is Professor of Comparative Politics at Trinity College Dublin. He is co-editor of The Politics of Electoral Systems (Oxford, 2008) and Politics in the Republic of Ireland (Abingdon, 2005), and co-author of Representative Government in Modern Europe (New York, 2006) and Days of Blue Loyalty (Dublin, 2002). Gail McElroy is a lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Trinity College, Dublin.