Final Technical Report (FTR) Project Type-CCP-DST Socio Economic Vulnerability of Himachal Pradesh to Climate Change Financial Support provided by Department of Science and Technology, Government of India Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe) C-80, Shivalik, Malviya Nagar, New Delhi-110017 Tel + 91 11 2668 2226/ Fax +91 11 2668 2226 www.irade.org Final Technical Report (FTR) Project Type-CCP-DST Socio Economic Vulnerability of Himachal Pradesh to Climate Change Submitted to Climate Change program, Department of Science and Technology (CCP- DST), Government of India Project Team Dr. Jyoti Parikh Dr. Ashutosh Sharma Chandrashekhar Singh Asha Kaushik Mani Dhingra ii Acknowledgments We thank everyone who contributed to the richness and the multidisciplinary perspective of this report “Socio Economic Vulnerability of Himachal Pradesh to Climate Change ’’. We are grateful to the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India for choosing IRADe to do this study. We are grateful to Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Scientist-G & Head, Strategic Programmes, Large Initiatives and Coordinated Action Enabler (SPLICE) and Climate Change Programme (CCP), DST, Dr. Nisha Mendiratta, Director / Scientist 'F' SPLICE & CCP Division, DST, Dr Rambir Singh, Scientist-G, SPLICE, DST and Dr. Anand Kamavisdar, Scientist – D, DST for extending their support during the execution of this project. We are also thankful to the expert committee on Climate Change Programme (CCP) of DST for reviewing the project report during the course of this study. The study could not have been taken place without the support of Dr. Pankaj Sharma Joint, Director, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, H.P, Mr. Yograj Thakur Assistant Agriculture, Statistic Officer , Directorate of Agriculture, Dr. Y.S Pathania, Sr. Pesticide Officer, Directorate of Agriculture, Dr. S.M Katia, Deputy Director Horticulture, Projects & Planning, Directorate of Horticulture, S. C Kamal, In charge, Department of Disaster Management, H.P State Secretariat, Mr. Pramod Shah, Divisional Horticulture Officer, Department of Horticulture, Brahmor, Dr. Rajiv Raina , Senior seed research officer, Programme Coordinator, SKVK Chamba, Sh Rajiv Chandra, Subject Matter Specialist, Dept of Horticulture, Chamba, Dr. Rajinder Kumar Sharma, District Horticulture Officer, Dharamshala, Dr. Kamal Sheel Negi, Subject Matter Specialist, North Zone horticulture Department, H.P, Mr. Shiv Kumar, Divisional Forest Officer Brahmor, , Dr. M. Kirupashanka, IFS, Divisional Forest Officer, Chamba, Mr. ARM Reddy, IFS, Chief Conservator of Forests, Chamba Circle, Dr. Suresh Upadhyay, Professor of Horticulture, CSK-H.P agriculture university, Palampur, Kangra and Dr. Ranbir Singh Rana, Principal Scientist (Agronomy), CSK-H.P agriculture university. We are also thankful to various state officials who were consulted for the study for their valuable inputs and insights. We would like to extend our sincere thanks to Dr. Kirit Parikh (Chairman IRADe) for having given his valuable comments and suggestions throughout the course of this study. Last but not the least we would like to thank all the staff of IRADe and the summer interns from Forest Research Institute, Dehradun. Dr. Jyoti Parikh On behalf of project team iii Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 1 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 3 2. Profile of Himachal Pradesh ............................................................................................................ 7 2.1 Socio-economic profile ............................................................................................................... 10 2.1. Livelihoods ............................................................................................................................ 12 Data Source: Estimated using NSSO 68th roundhousehold consumer expenditure survey. ............... 13 3. Climate change in context of Himachal Pradesh .......................................................................... 15 3.1 Analysis of Temperature Data for Himachal Pradesh ................................................................. 17 3.1.1 Data and Methodology ........................................................................................................ 17 3.1.2 Empirical Finding .................................................................................................................. 19 3.2 Comparative Analysis of Current and Future Climatic Condition Based on RCPs ....................... 20 3.2.1 Annual Mean Temperature .................................................................................................. 21 3.2.2 Annual Precipitation ............................................................................................................ 24 3.2.3 Temperature Seasonality ..................................................................................................... 26 3.2.4 Precipitation Seasonality...................................................................................................... 28 4. Status of Agriculture and Horticulture .......................................................................................... 31 4.1. Increase in pesticide and fertilizer usage: ............................................................................. 42 4.2 Losses due to extreme weather/climatic events ........................................................................ 45 5. An analysis of Apple farming in Himachal Pradesh ....................................................................... 47 5.1. Trend in Apple Area and Production Himachal Pradesh....................................................... 47 5.2. Data ....................................................................................................................................... 47 5.3. Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 51 5.4. Empirical Results ................................................................................................................... 52 6. Forests in Himachal Pradesh ......................................................................................................... 56 6.1. Forest Fire in Himachal Pradesh ........................................................................................... 57 6.2. Climate Change and Forest Fire ............................................................................................ 59 6.3. Increase in Invasion by alien species .................................................................................... 61 6.4. Non Timber Forest Product (NTFPs) ..................................................................................... 63 6.4.1. Sources and categories of Non Timber Forest Product (NTFPs) ................................... 63 6.4.2. NTFP Species with High Socio-Economic Impact .......................................................... 64 6.4.3. Contribution of HMPs (Herbal Medicinal Plants) in the Rural Economy ...................... 64 7. Socioeconomic vulnerability assessment ..................................................................................... 67 iv 7.1. Questionnaire Design ............................................................................................................ 68 7.2. Sample Composition and Survey Locations .......................................................................... 69 7.3. Survey Findings ..................................................................................................................... 72 7.3.1 Inadequate/ Insufficient irrigation facilities ............................................................................ 72 7.4. Market development ............................................................................................................ 86 7.4.1 . Easy transportation of horticulture produce .................................................................. 86 7.4.2 Increase in ancillary activities and livelihood opportunities ................................................. 87 7.5 Forestry and Non Timber Forest Produce (NTFP) ................................................................. 88 8 Conclusion and recommendations ............................................................................................... 96 References .......................................................................................................................................... 100 v List of Figures Figure 1: Schematic framework representing anthropogenic drivers, impacts of and responses to climate change, and their linkages ......................................................................................................... 4 Figure 2: Flow Chart of research Methodology ...................................................................................... 6 Figure 3: Numbers of registred trucks across districts ......................................................................... 14 Figure 4 :Area under foodgrains and Oilseeds in Himachal Pradesh .................................................... 31 Figure 5 Area under Fruits and Fruit Area as a Percentage of Net Area Sown (NAS) ........................... 36 Figure 6 Distribution of fruit area