WORKING PAPER 2018-11 Beyond road vehicles: Survey of zero-emission technology options across the transport sector Authors: Dale Hall, Nikita Pavlenko, and Nic Lutsey Date: July 18, 2018 Keywords: Zero-emission vehicles, aviation, maritime, off-road, rail 2018 INTRODUCTION related to these modes for 2018 and pro- jections for 2060.2 In total, transport rep- Electrification continues to make resents about 25% of global greenhouse 30% strides in the passenger vehicle market, gas emissions from fossil fuel combus- representing more than 1% of global tion; this share is expected to increase sales and up to 40% of sales in leading as the power sector decarbonizes.3 As markets in 2017.1 Enabled by falling shown, whereas road vehicles are the 47% battery prices and increasing invest- largest sources and have received the ment from traditional and new vehicle 10% most attention, one-fourth of trans- manufacturers, this trend represents port CO emissions (2.2 gigatonnes) an opportunity to dramatically reduce 2 are attributable to maritime, aviation, 10% greenhouse gas emissions in the trans- and rail—a share projected to grow in port sector. Policymakers continue to the coming decades. Although light- 3% encourage a shift toward zero-emis- duty vehicle emissions are expected to 2060 sion vehicles through CO regulations, 2 peak around 2020 under this scenario, consumer incentives, and investment 41% maritime and aviation emissions are pro- in associated infrastructure. jected to rise through 2030 as a result of Although road vehicles currently rep- increasing demand and slower efficiency resent about 70% of transport green- improvements. This figure does not take 20% house gas emissions, other forms of into account the additional impacts of transport—including aviation, maritime, and off-road vehicles—are substantial 2 Using the 2-degree scenario from International Energy Agency, Energy technology emissions sources and are expected to perspectives 2017 (June 2017); www.iea. 24% see continued growth in the coming org/etp/. LDV, MDV, and HDV denote light-, 14% years. Figure 1 summarizes the emissions medium-, and heavy-duty road vehicles, respectively. 1% 3 J. D. Miller, C. Façanha, The state of clean transport policy: A 2014 synthesis of LDV MDV/HDV Marine 1 J. Pontes, V. Irle, Global plug-in vehicle vehicle and fuel policy developments Aviation Rail sales for 2017—final results (EV Volumes, (ICCT, December 2014); www.theicct.org/ February 2018); http://www.ev-volumes. publications/state-clean-transport-policy- Figure 1. Share of global transport-related com/news/global-plug-in-vehicle-sales-for- 2014-synthesis-vehicle-and-fuel-policy- greenhouse gas emissions by mode in 2017-final-results/. developments. 2018, and projections for 2060. Acknowledgments: This work is conducted for the International Zero-Emission Vehicle Alliance and is supported by its members (British Columbia, California, Connecticut, Germany, Maryland, Massachusetts, the Netherlands, New York, Norway, Oregon, Québec, Rhode Island, the United Kingdom, and Vermont). We thank Dan Rutherford, Anastasia Kharina, Bryan Comer, and the ZEV Alliance members who provided critical reviews on an earlier version of the report. Their review does not imply an endorsement, and any errors are the authors’ own. © INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION, 2018 WWW.THEICCT.ORG BEYOND ROAD VEHICLES: SURVEY OF ZERO-EMISSION TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS ACROSS THE TRANSPORT SECTOR pollutants emitted at high altitudes in POLICY BACKGROUND diesel engines, but there are no fuel the aviation sector, which have complex efficiency or greenhouse gas stan- As part of their plans to limit green- and potent climate impacts, nor does it dards for these kinds of vehicles. house gas emissions, most govern- include the black carbon emitted from ments are committed to reducing many large ships, which has extremely International maritime agreements. emissions from the transport sector. severe short-term climate impacts. Although international maritime However, emissions from non-road shipping emissions are not covered Beyond these climate impacts, transport modes are typically more by the Paris agreement, the sector non-road transport sources—espe- difficult to control than on-road has committed to reducing its green- cially ships and off-road vehicles used vehicle emissions for a variety of house gas emissions. The International for construction and agriculture—are reasons. Accounting for the exact Maritime Organization (IMO) intro- emission impacts is more difficult a primary source of local air pollu- duced a strategy to reduce green- tion and contribute to its associated because of the cross-boundary nature house gas emissions from international of aviation, maritime, and rail, as well health impacts. Large maritime vessels shipping in April 2018, with targets of as the diffuse use of off-road con- burning heavy fuel oil and off-road a 40% reduction in carbon intensity struction and agricultural equipment. vehicles with older diesel engines [emissions per tonne–nautical mile National and local emission inven- produce substantial amounts of partic- (t-nm)] by 2030 and a 50% reduc- tories and legal authority to control ulate matter, NO , and SO near coast- tion in total greenhouse gas emissions x x many of these types of sources can lines and in cities. These emissions, as from 2008 levels by 2050.4 The IMO be limited. well as greenhouse gases and particles has already adopted energy efficiency (e.g., black carbon) that contribute to National emissions reduction targets. standards for new ships through its global climate change, are expected To meet global climate stabilization Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI). to increase in the coming decades as scenarios, emissions must peak in the The EEDI regulations mandate that shipping and air travel continue to 2020s and be reduced by at least 50 new ships be 10%, 20%, and 30% more increase. to 80% by 2050. Although emissions efficient (measured as 2CO /t-nm) than from international maritime trans- a baseline of similarly sized older ships Zero-emission technologies, includ- port and international aviation were in 2015, 2020, and 2025, respectively. ing plug-in electric vehicles and excluded from the Paris climate agree- The EEDI is the only mandatory energy hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, are ment, some national and local leaders efficiency measure for international advancing rapidly in cars, commercial in regions with substantial domestic shipping at the moment, but addi- vans, buses, and even heavier com- shipping and aviation emissions have tional measures to reduce greenhouse mercial trucks. Beyond these devel- sought ways to reduce these emis- gases from ships may follow as the opments, could these zero-emission sions. For example, U.S. EPA has ruled sector implements its greenhouse gas technologies similarly contribute to reduction strategy. Although some that CO2 emissions from domestic decarbonizing other transport modes? aviation must be regulated as part studies have outlined pathways for Zero-emission technologies are less of a 2016 endangerment finding; decarbonization,5 specific measures mature for non-road applications, but however, specific regulations have for deep, long-term emission cuts have demonstration projects and research not yet been enacted. Likewise, emis- yet to be set. activities are under way that could sions from flights within the European eventually enable widespread deploy- Economic Area are included within International aviation targets. ment of electric-drive ships, aircraft, the European Union (EU) emissions Although international aviation emis- and off-road equipment. To meet trading scheme (ETS). Norway plans sions are similarly not included in the global climate and local air quality to implement a blend-in requirement goals, governments are highly moti- for biofuels in aviation in 2019, while 4 D. Rutherford, B. Comer, The International Maritime Organization’s initial greenhouse vated to investigate options that go the EU is considering an incentive or gas strategy (ICCT, April 2018); www.theicct. beyond combustion and incremental subtarget for aviation alternative fuel org/publications/IMO-initial-GHG-strategy. efficiency improvements. This working within the forthcoming Renewable 5 See, for example, O. Merk, L. Kirstein, R. paper investigates recent research and Halim, Decarbonising maritime transport: Energy Directive for 2020 to 2030. Pathways to zero-carbon shipping by 2035 ongoing projects to assess the poten- Off-road construction and agricul- (International Transport Forum, March 2018), tial of zero-emission technologies in tural vehicles are typically regulated www.itf-oecd.org/decarbonising-maritime- transport; Lloyd’s Register & UMAS, Zero aviation, maritime, off-road, and rail at the national level to limit harmful emission vessels 2030 (Lloyd’s Register, transport. particulate and NOx pollution from 2017), info.lr.org/zev2030. 2 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION WORKING PAPER 2018-11 BEYOND ROAD VEHICLES: SURVEY OF ZERO-EMISSION TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS ACROSS THE TRANSPORT SECTOR Paris agreement, several emission vehicle technology, battery electric, Hydrogen. Hydrogen electrochemically reduction actions are under way. is becoming increasingly common as converted to electricity in a fuel cell has The EU includes aviation emissions a result of its relative efficiency, low no pollutant emissions at the vehicle. in its ETS, but only intra-EU flights per-mile costs, low maintenance costs, Hydrogen can