Science, Strategy and War The Strategic Theory of John Boyd Frans Osinga The cover illustration depicts the comprehensive rendering of the OODA loop which features in John Boyd’s final presentation titled The Essence of Winning and Losing. Cover design: Hermkens Design, Amsterdam ISBN 90 5972 058 X Eburon Academic Publishers P.O. Box 2867 2601 CW Delft The Netherlands Phone: +31 (0)15-2131484 / Fax: +31 (0)15-2146888 [email protected] / www.eburon.nl © 2005 F. Osinga. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission in writing from the proprietor. Science, Strategy and War The Strategic Theory of John Boyd Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van Doctor aan de Universiteit Leiden, op gezag van de Rector Magnificus Prof. Dr. D.D. Breimer, hoogleraar in de faculteit der Wiskunde en Natuurwetenschappen en die der Geneeskunde, volgens besluit van het College voor Promoties te verdedigen op dinsdag 11 januari 2005 klokke 14.15 uur door Frans Osinga geboren te Leeuwarden in 1963 PROMOTIECOMMISSIE Promotor Prof. Dr. A. van Staden Referent Prof. Dr. R. de Wijk Overige leden Prof. Dr. G.T. Hammond Prof. Dr. Ir. G. Ooms Prof. Dr. J.J.C. Voorhoeve De totstandkoming van dit proefschrift werd financieel mogelijk gemaakt door de Koninklijke Luchtmacht. We are survival machines. Richard Dawkins Strategy is the mode of survival of a society. Henry Kissinger First Lt. John Boyd in the cockpit of an F-86 during the Korean War (USAF photograph) CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................... 1 Who is John Boyd and what is A Discourse ?...................................................................................1 Why study Boyd? ..............................................................................................................................3 Objective and thesis .........................................................................................................................10 Organization...................................................................................................................................11 2. ON STRATEGY AND STRATEGIC THEORY ................................................... 13 STRATEGY ........................................................................................................................................13 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................13 Definitions ......................................................................................................................................14 Making good strategy is difficult ......................................................................................................17 STRATEGIC THEORY.......................................................................................................................18 The theory in strategic theory............................................................................................................18 The scope of strategic theory ............................................................................................................20 Strategic theory and practice.............................................................................................................24 Why strategic theorizing is difficult ..................................................................................................26 HOW STRATEGIC THEORY DEVELOPS: FORMATIVE FACTORS...............................................31 Sources of inspiration and for understanding ....................................................................................31 Experience, predecessors and pressing needs......................................................................................32 Science and Strategic Theory............................................................................................................34 The formative factors of Boyd’s A Discourse ....................................................................................38 3. THE SEEDS OF A THEORY AND THE FERTILE SOIL.................................40 THE SEED OF A THEORY; BOYD'S MILITARY LIFE....................................................................40 Flying fighters..................................................................................................................................40 Designing fighters ............................................................................................................................43 READING HISTORY ........................................................................................................................47 Rediscovering old masters.................................................................................................................47 Rediscovering flexibility and fluidity.................................................................................................48 Brain-warfare..................................................................................................................................50 The Indirect Approach ....................................................................................................................52 Boyd’s conceptual father: Sun Tzu...................................................................................................56 FERTILE SOIL: THE US MILITARY AFTER VIETNAM...............................................................65 Turbulent environment ....................................................................................................................68 Adaptive Marines...........................................................................................................................69 Boyd and tanks...............................................................................................................................71 A DISCOURSE AS PRODUCT OF INTERACTION..........................................................................76 4. SCIENCE: BOYD’S FOUNTAIN..........................................................................78 BOYD AND SCIENCE.......................................................................................................................78 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................78 Hidden fountain..............................................................................................................................78 SHIFTING FOUNDATIONS .............................................................................................................80 A new sensibility.............................................................................................................................80 Popper’s Evolutionary Epistemology................................................................................................84 vii Polanyi and the tacit dimension .......................................................................................................85 Paradigms and revolutions...............................................................................................................90 PARADIGM SHIFT ............................................................................................................................94 Beyond Newton...............................................................................................................................94 The end of certainty .........................................................................................................................96 THE EMERGING SYSTEMS VIEW OF THE WORLD....................................................................100 Wholes, not parts..........................................................................................................................100 Cybernetics....................................................................................................................................103 General Systems Theory ................................................................................................................105 SYSTEMS EVERYWHERE...............................................................................................................106 The structure of the brain ..............................................................................................................106 The cognitive revolution..................................................................................................................108 Creativity......................................................................................................................................112 BOYD AND THE FIRST STAGE OF THE PARADIGM SHIFT ......................................................116 A new view ...................................................................................................................................116 Boyd and the systems view of life ....................................................................................................117 Strategy, creativity, doctrines and mental modules...........................................................................118 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................119