Wind EnErgy china Proceeding as planned An Uygur woman walks by the Dabancheng wind farm in Urumqi in northwest In China wind power expansion continues to make rapid progress. The state China’s Xinjiang Uygur is acting only to moderate rank growth, and paves the way for rapidly Autonomous Region. Photo: dpa growing major manufacturers. his year the market volume in China is not li- With the amendments to the Renewable Energy kely to double, which would actually have Law, the government intends to clear the way for Tbeen a miracle given that a capacity of more green power to enter the grid, by obliging utility than 13 GW had been reached the year before (see companies to purchase renewable power. More over, bar diagram). Even in China there are limits to since August 2009 wind power operators can expect growth, and the industry must take a breather. This higher rates for the electricity they feed into the grid. China Balkendiagramm Windenergie-Marktentwicklung in China 1999 -is 2009 primarily due to the fact that transmission grids Feed-in tariffs range between CNY 0.51/kWh cannot be extended fast enough. Installing wind (0.058 €/kWh) in strong wind regions to CNY 0.61/ Jahr MW 1999 44 farms is relatively easy, but it is becoming ever kWh (0.070 €/kWh) in low wind regions. 2000 76 more difficult to get them connected to the grid. 2001 56 Market volume may shrink to 10 GW this year, but 2002 68 Maturity and transparency 2003 98 because the US market is experiencing a heavy de- 2004 197 cline, China will still remain the world’s number one A young market initially develops with wild prolifera- 2005 503 2006 1337 market. The state-set target for installing 100 GW tion, confusing and obscure like a jungle. Only with 2007 3287 capacity by 2020 has not been jeopardised to date, maturity does it become more transparent. Applying 2008 6246 and everything is still running as planned. this standard, the Chinese market still is at a fairly 2009 13750 early stage, as neither the precise number of manu- Quelle: BTM Consult facturers nor the respective installed capacity are Development of wind energy in China 1999 to 2009 known. Even so, the total installed capacity is quite well known. The two best-known market observers, 13.750 MW The wind energy the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) industry asso- market in China ciation and the Danish BTM Consult market research from 1999 to 2009. institute, both calculate that 13.8 GW were installed The market volume in China last year. at least doubled 6.246 On the other hand, individual manufacturer’s every year from market share can only be stated with qualified accu- 2004 to 2009. This racy. According to BTM Consult, Sinovel secured a 3.287 year, however, quarter, Goldwind a fifth and Dongfang a sixth of the 1.337 growth is expected 44 76 56 68 98 197 503 market in 2009 (see pie chart, page 236). BTM Con- to come to a halt. sult emphasises that these figures are exclusively Source: BTM Consult 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 based on manufacturers’ specifications. Greater clar- 234 Sun & Wind Energy 9/2010 DELTA® protects surfaces. HUSUM WindEnergy Hall 6, Booth B03 Make the most of the unbeatable effi ciency of our zinc lamella systems. (Before the competition gets wind of them.) The innovative and effi cient alternative in the fi eld of high-performance corrosion protection for wind turbines: the DELTA-MKS® zinc lamella systems from Dörken. Well-established throughout the world, specifi ed through the world, not to mention available throughout the world. If you would like to fi nd out more about the composition, applications and cost eff ectiveness of our systems, we are ready and waiting – in person or via the Internet: www.doerken-mks.de/wind WIND ENERGY 225_Doerken_Windenergie_210x297en.indd 1 13.08.2010 9:49:07 Uhr Wind EnErgy china mal competitive conditions would long since have ceased to exist. The wind power industry is not spared from this ei- ther. There are currently some 80 manufacturers in China bringing or intending to bring wind turbines to market. Many have not gotten farther than the proto- type development stage. Even the largest market in the world cannot feed such a plethora in the long run. Ap- parently, the government is now determined to take drastic action. As Windpower Monthly reports, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is trying to consolidate the scattered industry. It envis- ages excluding laggards from the race by using drastic measures and setting strict standards. Manufacturers that are unable to produce wind turbines with a capac- 40 m rotors for a wind farm ity of 2.5 MW or more, or to reach an annual production in Inner Mongolia are loaded ity might only be provided by the Chinese Wind Ener- of at least 1 GW will presumably no longer enjoy state onto a convoy of trucks at the gy Association (CWEA), the Chinese industry associa- support in future. This applies to tax breaks, allocation factory north of Beijing. tion, but this has not yet happened. It is noteworthy of land and granting of bank loans – virtually every- Photo: EPA/Adrian Bradshaw that the Chinese manufacturers themselves do not thing a company needs to thrive and survive. More- disclose exact details of their installed capacity, as if over, manufacturers have to provide evidence that they they were trade secrets. have produced at least 500 MW (i.e. 250 wind turbines Thus, nobody knows exactly how many of the tur- rated at 2 MW each) in a factory before they will be bines installed last year are actually generating elec- granted permission to expand that factory. The govern- tricity. Estimations fluctuate between two thirds and ment’s intention is clear: Only those companies that three quarters. The remaining turbines are still wait- are big enough to stand the test of the world market ing to be connected to the grid. As in all other coun- shall survive. tries, grid connection is the time-critical element. The The three leading manufacturers Sinovel, Gold- installation of large-scale wind farms must go hand in wind and Dongfang will have no trouble meeting these hand with the extension of transmission lines. In standards. Those that are not quite as big, such as the most European countries this now runs fairly smooth- manufacturers Guodian, Mingyang, XEMC, Shanghai ly. In China just as in the US, no viable solution to this Electric (Sewind) and CSIC Haizhuang, will have to go planning problem has been found up to now. to greater lengths. Presumably the government will suggest to them that they merge with suitable part- Capitalism and planned economy ners. However, the future looks bleak for the smaller manufacturers. Their annual output does not even The Chinese national economy is a curious – and prob- reach 100 MW and they have hardly any chance of ably unique – mixture of sprouting capitalism and com- surviving. Market shares in 2009 prehensive planned economy. Planners confine them- [%] Sinovel 25,0selves to the essentials and do not make the mistake Voith Turbo gets a foothold in Goldwind 19,5of wanting to fix the price of individual nuts and bolts. China Dongfang 17,7They focus in particular on regulating electricity and Guodian United Power 5,5major commodity prices, on setting growth targets and As early as last year it became apparent that Chinese 4,2 Vestas cutting back rank growth. In addition, the Chinese companies were increasingly losing interest in form- Mingyang 4,1 Hara XEMC 3,2planned economy regards its mission as protecting its ing joint ventures (see SWE 10/2009, page 152). They Gamesa 2,9own industry and keeping foreign competition out, prefer getting access to expertise by having it provid- Sonstige 17,9which can, however, result in unhealthy growth, since ed to them from European design offices specialised Summe 100,0in this way many companies survive which under nor- in wind power. The three best known ones, Aerodyn Quelle: BTM Consult (Germany), AMSC-Windtec (US/Austria) and Garrad Hassan (UK, now a division of the German GL group) Market shares in 2009 (%) participate in various new developments. Currently, Aerodyn is aiding manufacturer 17,9 Gamesa Sinovel 25,0 Mingyang in their efforts to bring a 3 MW turbine with 2,9 Sonstige Hara “super compact drive” (SCD) onto the market. This is XEMC 3,2 The wind energy market in a unique turbine design featuring a small tower head Mingyang 4,1 China 2009: mass and two-blade rotors. Independently from each 4,2 Vestas manufacturers’ other, but both in a joint effort with AMSC Windtec, 5,5 Goldwind 19,5 market shares. Sinovel and Dongfang are developing offshore wind Dongfang Guodian 17,7 Market volume has turbines having 5 MW capacity each. United reached 13,750 MW. Chinese manufacturers are not fond of adopting Power Source: BTM Consult intricate European technologies that they are com- pelled to incorporate in unmodified form into their 236 Sun & Wind Energy 9/2010 NORTH AMERICAN OFFSHORE WIND Conference & Exhibition OCTOBER 5–7, 2010 ATLANTIC CITY, NJ October 5 – 7, 2010 4 Atlantic City, NJ Get a big picture of the North American offshore wind market and the development opportunities throughout the coastal regions of North America. Learn from offshore wind leaders about financing options and challenges, project design and siting considerations, as well as growth potential, obstacles and, most importantly, rewards. www.offshorewindexpo.org produced in association with AWEA_Offshore_297x210mmad.indd 1 8/5/10 12:36:19 PM Wind EnErgy china Hafei Winwind Bohai pilot project Weihai 45 MW Dongtai Nordex Wind Power 2 x 300 MW CASC-Acciona Siemens Shanghai Donghai Bridge Legend Chinese company 10 GW power base Foreign company Offshore project Joint venture Yinhe Avantis Layout: EILERS-Media:www.eilers-media.de wind turbines as a “black box”.