Volume 1-3 North Central Florida Region Technical Data Report CHAPTER II REGIONAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS This page intentionally left blank. Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies Program Volume 1-3 North Central Florida Table of Contents CHAPTER II REGIONAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS .................................................................... 1 A. Hazards Identification and Risk Assessment ........................................................................ 1 1. Frequency of Occurrence .................................................................................................... 1 2. Vulnerability Factors ............................................................................................................ 1 3. Vulnerability Impact Areas .................................................................................................. 1 B. Coastal Storms and Hurricanes .............................................................................................. 5 1. Coastal Storm /Hurricane Hazard Profile .......................................................................... 5 2. Hurricane Hazards ................................................................................................................ 7 3. Storm Surge: The SLOSH Model ........................................................................................ 8 4. Hurricane Wind Analysis.................................................................................................... 17 5. Tornadoes ........................................................................................................................... 24 6. Hazardous Materials and Hurricanes ............................................................................... 27 7. Freshwater Flooding and the Inundation of Evacuation Routes ................................. 27 8. History of Hurricanes in the North Central Florida Region ........................................... 28 9. Probability of Future Hurricane Events ........................................................................... 39 C. Freshwater Flooding .............................................................................................................. 50 1. Inland/Riverine Flooding Profile ....................................................................................... 50 2. Probability of Flooding: FIRM Maps ................................................................................. 51 3. Dam Failure ......................................................................................................................... 54 4. History of Inland Flooding ................................................................................................ 55 5. Repetitive Flood Loss Areas .............................................................................................. 57 D. Wildfires and the Urban Interface ....................................................................................... 63 1. Wildfire Hazard Profile ....................................................................................................... 64 2. History of Wildfire in the North Central Florida Region ................................................ 64 3. Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) ...................................................................................... 65 E. Hazardous Material Incidents ............................................................................................... 68 1. Overview .............................................................................................................................. 68 2. History of the Local Emergency Planning Committees (LEPCs) .................................. 68 3. Mission of the LEPC ........................................................................................................... 69 Regional Hazards Analysis Table of Contents Volume 1-3 North Central Florida Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies Program 4. Hazards Analysis of Hazardous Materials ....................................................................... 70 F. Domestic Security Events ...................................................................................................... 77 1. Hazard Profile and Current Programs ............................................................................. 77 2. The Regional Domestic Security Task Forces (RDSTFs) .............................................. 81 3. History of Events ................................................................................................................ 82 4. Vulnerability Assessments ................................................................................................. 82 G. Nuclear Power Plant Incidents ............................................................................................. 82 H. Tsunami Events ...................................................................................................................... 83 List of Tables Table II- 1: Hazards Identified in Florida .......................................................................... 2 Table II- 2: Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale...................................................................... 6 Table II- 3: Cedar Key Basin Hypothetical Storm Parameters ..................................... 10 Table II- 4: Potential Storm Tide Heights by County* ................................................. 12 Table II- 5: Enhanced Fujita-Pearson Tornado Intensity Scale .................................. 26 Table II- 6: U.S. Mainland Hurricane Strikes by State (1851-2006) .......................... 40 Table II- 7: Major Hurricane Direct Hits on the U.S. Coastline .................................. 41 Table II- 8: Tropical Storms and Hurricanes within 100 NMi of Dekle Beach 1870 - 2007 ........................................................................................................................................ 44 Table II- 9: Tropical Storms and Hurricanes Passing within 100 NMi of Horseshoe Pt. 1870 - 2007 ..................................................................................................................... 46 Table II- 10: Summary for Hurricanes and Tropical Storms ....................................... 48 Table II-11: Summary for Hurricanes ............................................................................. 49 Table II- 12: Definitions of National Flood Insurance (NFIP) zones .......................... 51 Table II- 13: Flooplain Acreage by County .................................................................... 54 Table II- 14: Dams in the North Central Region ........................................................... 55 Table II- 15: North Central Florida Repetitive Loss Areas ............................................ 57 Table II- 16: District 3 Top Ten Section 302 Chemicals .............................................. 71 Table of Contents Regional Hazards Analysis Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies Program Volume 1-3 North Central Florida List of Figures Figure II- 1: Cedar Key SLOSH Basin ............................................................................. 11 Figure II- 2: SLOSH Grid with ........................................................................................... 12 Figure II- 3: Storm Tide Limits for the North Central Florida Region ......................... 16 Figure II- 4: Inland Wind Decay ...................................................................................... 19 Figure II- 5: Maximum Inland Extent of Winds for Hurricanes Approaching the Gulf Coast ....................................................................................................................................... 21 Figure II- 6: Maximum Inland Extent of Winds for Hurricanes Approaching the East Coast ....................................................................................................................................... 22 Figure II- 7: Wind Risk Assessment: Florida Building Code ........................................ 23 Figure II- 8: 50 Year Return Peak Gusts (using HAZUS) .............................................. 24 Figure II- 9: Prevailing Tracks - June............................................................................... 42 Figure II- 10: Prevailing Tracks - July............................................................................. 42 Figure II- 11: Prevailing Tracks - August ....................................................................... 42 Figure II- 12: Prevailing Tracks - September ................................................................ 43 Figure II- 13: Prevailing Tracks - October ..................................................................... 43 Figure II- 14: Prevailing Tracks - November ................................................................. 43 Figure II- 15: Hurricane Return Intervals for Dekle Beach ......................................... 48 Figure II- 16: North Central Florida FEMA Flood Zones ................................................. 53 Figure II- 17: Wildfire Level of Concern ......................................................................... 67 Figure II- 18: Hazardous Materials Sites ......................................................................... 76 Regional Hazards Analysis Table of Contents Volume 1-3 North Central Florida Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies Program This page intentionally left blank. Table of Contents Regional Hazards Analysis Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies