PETROCHEMICALS FROM OIL SANDS for ALBERTA ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE NOVA CHEMICALS LTD. SHELL CHEMICALS CANADA SUNCOR ENERGY INC. by T. J. McCann and Associates Ltd. with Lenef Consulting (1994) Limited KemeX Engineering Services Ltd. SFA Pacific, Inc. Sigurdson & Associates July 2002 DISCLAIMER Except as specifically noted the calculations, conclusions and recommendations of this report are the sole responsibility of T. J. McCann and Associates Ltd. Advice, calculations and other assistance of Lenef Consulting (1994) Limited, KemeX Engineering Services Ltd., SFA Pacific, Inc. and Sigurdson & Associates has been incorporated herein as considered appropriate. The data, conclusions and recommendations may not concur with the opinions and/or policies of any of the sponsoring organizations. It is to be noted that the underlying data and assumptions in this report are often forecasts and/or estimates by the team and no guarantees are provided as to qualities of data or recommendations. Notices • This report was prepared for the listed sponsors, who retain the sole rights to its distribution. However, as most assumptions drew on publicly available data/information, no specific proprietary technical rights of the sponsors are inherent in this report. • Whenever specific licensors and/or processes are noted these are for illustration only, with no implied recommendations. - i – TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE DISCLAIMER...........................................................................................................................................................................................i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: CONCLUSIONS AND KEY MESSAGES...................................................................................................vii 1.0 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................................................1 1.1 General...................................................................................................................................................................1 1.2 Objectives...............................................................................................................................................................1 1.3 Approach ................................................................................................................................................................2 1.4 Other Chemical Centers.........................................................................................................................................3 1.5 BASF et al Port Arthur, TX Expansion Project Examples.......................................................................................6 1.6 Financial Analyses Bases.......................................................................................................................................9 1.7 Gas Oil Note .........................................................................................................................................................11 1.7.1 Light “Gas Oil”......................................................................................................................................11 2.0 FEEDSTOCKS .....................................................................................................................................................................12 2.1 Introduction...........................................................................................................................................................12 2.2 Reference Prices ..................................................................................................................................................12 2.3 Bitumen Supply ....................................................................................................................................................12 2.4 Vacuum / Heavy Gas Oils ....................................................................................................................................14 2.5 Natural Gas Liquids..............................................................................................................................................14 2.6 Synthetic Gas Liquids...........................................................................................................................................15 2.7 Refinery Olefinic C3 C4’s.......................................................................................................................................17 2.8 Ethylene Plant C3 Plus Streams ...........................................................................................................................17 2.9 Joffre Ethylene Plant Hydrogen............................................................................................................................18 2.10 CO2 from Others ...................................................................................................................................................18 2.11 Refinery Naphthas................................................................................................................................................18 2.12 Feed Delivery Systems.........................................................................................................................................18 3.0 PRODUCTS..........................................................................................................................................................................19 3.1 Introduction...........................................................................................................................................................19 3.2 Petrochemical Products........................................................................................................................................19 3.2.1 Preamble ..............................................................................................................................................19 3.2.2 Ethylene ...............................................................................................................................................19 3.2.3 Propylene .............................................................................................................................................20 3.2.4 Benzene ...............................................................................................................................................21 3.2.5 P-xylene ...............................................................................................................................................21 3.3 Refined Products..................................................................................................................................................21 3.3.1 General – British Columbia ..................................................................................................................21 3.3.2 Gasoline ...............................................................................................................................................22 3.3.3 C4 Alkylate............................................................................................................................................23 3.3.4 Jet Fuel.................................................................................................................................................23 3.3.5 Diesels..................................................................................................................................................23 3.3.6 Heavy Aromatics ..................................................................................................................................24 3.3.7 Naphthas ..............................................................................................................................................24 3.3.8 Synthetic Crude Oils.............................................................................................................................24 3.4 Hydrogen ..............................................................................................................................................................24 3.5 CO2 .......................................................................................................................................................................25 3.6 Specialties ............................................................................................................................................................25 3.6.1 Synopsis...............................................................................................................................................25 3.6.2 Options .................................................................................................................................................26 3.7 Major Prospects....................................................................................................................................................26 3.8 Infrastructure ........................................................................................................................................................30 3.8.1 Introduction...........................................................................................................................................30 3.8.2 Transport System