$EVELOPMENT $EVELOPMENT #ENTRE 3TUDIES $EVELOPMENT #ENTRE 3TUDIES #HINESE %CONOMIC 0ERFORMANCE IN THE ,ONG 2UN #ENTRE #HINESE %CONOMIC 3%#/.$ %$)4)/. 2%6)3%$ !.$ 50$!4%$ !$ 3TUDIES 0ERFORMANCE IN THE ,ONG 2UN 4HIS BOOK IS UNIQUE IN ITS DEPTH OF PERSPECTIVE )T USES A COMPARATIVE APPROACH TO EXPLAIN WHY #HINAS ROLE IN THE WORLD ECONOMY HAS CHANGED SO DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST THOUSAND YEARS )T CONCLUDES THAT #HINA IS LIKELY TO RESUME ITS 3%#/.$ %$)4)/. 2%6)3%$ !.$ 50$!4%$ NATURAL ROLE AS THE WORLDS LARGEST ECONOMY BY THE YEAR THUS REGAINING THE POSITION IT HAD HELD UNTIL !$ 4HE STUDY PROVIDES A MAJOR REASSESSMENT OF THE SCALE AND SCOPE OF #HINAS RESURGENCE OVER THE PAST HALF CENTURY EMPLOYING QUANTITATIVE MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUES WHICH ARE STANDARD PRACTICE IN /%#$ COUNTRIES ! DYNAMIC LINK 3TAT,INK IS PROVIDED FOR EACH TABLE AND GRAPH WHICH DIRECTS THE USER TO A WEB PAGE WHERE THE CORRESPONDING DATA ARE AVAILABLE IN %XCEL FORMAT #HINESE !NGUS -ADDISON h4HIS SECOND EDITION IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE AND IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTION TO A SUBJECT THAT HAS DEEP SIGNIlCANCE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMYv 0ROFESSOR ,AWRENCE +LEIN .OBEL ,AUREATE h4HE BOOK IS A MUST FOR ANYONE WHO WANTS TO UNDERSTAND THE PAST AND THE FUTURE OF THE #HINESE ECONOMYv %CONOMIC *USTIN 9IFU ,IN &OUNDING $IRECTOR #HINA #ENTER FOR %CONOMIC 2ESEARCH 0EKING 5NIVERSITY h! WELCOME UPDATE TO A DAZZLING ESSAYv .ICHOLAS %BERSTADT !MERICAN %NTERPRISE )NSTITUTE h4HIS REVIEW OF A MILLENIUM OF #HINESE ECONOMIC HISTORY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE OF #HINA AND THE WORLD IS A REMARKABLE ACHIEVEMENT ! MUST READ FOR ANYONE INTERESTED IN #HINAv $WIGHT ( 0ERKINS 0ERFORMANCE (ARVARD 5NIVERSITY h! GREAT MASTERPIECE IN THE lELD OF ECONOMIC HISTORY THE SHOULDERS OF A GIANT ON WHICH NEW GENERATIONS OF SCHOLARS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD WILL STAND 7E #HINESE SCHOLARS WILL BENElT AS GREATLY FROM THIS SECOND EDITION AS WE HAVE FROM THE lRSTv ,I "OZHONG 0ROFESSOR OF (ISTORY 4SINGHUA 5NIVERSITY "EIJING IN THE !NGUS -ADDISON IS %MERITUS 0ROFESSOR OF %CONOMIC 'ROWTH AND $EVELOPMENT AT THE ,ONG 5NIVERSITY OF 'RONINGEN (E HELD A NUMBER OF SENIOR POSTS AT /%%# AND /%#$ BETWEEN AND AND HAS BEEN A POLICY ADVISOR TO GOVERNMENTS IN "RAZIL 'HANA 'REECE -EXICO AND 0AKISTAN (E IS THE AUTHOR OF BOOKS ON THE LONG RUN PERFORMANCE OF NATIONS 2UN AND THEIR INTERACTIONS WITHIN THE WORLD ECONOMY (E HAS BUILT UP AN INTERNATIONAL NETWORK OF SCHOLARS WORKING IN THIS lELD (E IS A FELLOW OF THE "RITISH !CADEMY A MEMBER OF THE 3%#/.$ !MERICAN !CADEMY OF !RTS AND 3CIENCE AND AN HONORARY FELLOW OF 3ELWYN #OLLEGE #AMBRIDGE %$)4)/. 4HE FULL TEXT OF THIS BOOK IS AVAILABLE ON LINE VIA THESE LINKS WWWSOURCEOECDORGDEVELOPMENT WWWSOURCEOECDORGEMERGINGECONOMIES WWWSOURCEOECDORGGENERALECONOMICS 4HOSE WITH ACCESS TO ALL /%#$ BOOKS ON LINE SHOULD USE THIS LINK !$ WWWSOURCEOECDORG 3OURCE/%#$ IS THE /%#$S ONLINE LIBRARY OF BOOKS PERIODICALS AND STATISTICAL DATABASES &OR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS AWARD WINNING SERVICE AND FREE TRIALS ASK YOUR LIBRARIAN OR WRITE TO US AT 3OURCE/%#$ OECDORG )3". 0 XXXPFDEPSHQVCMJTIJOH "-.+/26514 Faux-titre.fm Page 1 Tuesday, September 25, 2007 12:22 PM Development Centre Studies Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run SECOND EDITION, REVISED AND UPDATED: 960-2030 AD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE OF THE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT Faux-titre.fm Page 2 Tuesday, September 18, 2007 10:47 AM ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 30 democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation’s statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation, the OECD Development Centre or of the governments of their member countries. Also available in French under the title: L’économie chinoise : Une perspective historique DEUXIÈME ÉDITION, RÉVISÉE ET MISE À JOUR : 960-2030 Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda. © OECD 2007 No reproduction, copy, transmission or translation of this publication may be made without written permission. Applications should be sent to OECD Publishing [email protected] or by fax 33 1 45 24 99 30. Permission to photocopy a portion of this work should be addressed to the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC), 20, rue des Grands-Augustins, 75006 Paris, France, fax 33 1 46 34 67 19, [email protected] or (for US only) to Copyright Clearance Center (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, fax 1 978 646 8600, [email protected]. Table of Contents THE DEVELOPMENT CENTRE The Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development was established by decision of the OECD Council on 23 October 1962 and comprises 22 member countries of the OECD: Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom as well as Brazil since March 1994, Chile since November 1998, India since February 2001, Romania since October 2004, Thailand since March 2005 and South Africa since May 2006. The Commission of the European Communities also takes part in the Centre’s Governing Board. The Development Centre, whose membership is open to both OECD and non-OECD countries, occupies a unique place within the OECD and in the international community. Members finance the Centre and serve on its Governing Board, which sets the biennial work programme and oversees its implementation. The Centre links OECD members with developing and emerging economies and fosters debate and discussion to seek creative policy solutions to emerging global issues and development challenges. Participants in Centre events are invited in their personal capacity. A small core of staff works with experts and institutions from the OECD and partner countries to fulfil the Centre’s work programme. The results are discussed in informal expert and policy dialogue meetings, and are published in a range of high-quality products for the research and policy communities. The Centre’s Study Series presents in-depth analyses of major development issues. Policy Briefs and Policy Insights summarise major conclusions for policy makers; Working Papers deal with the more technical aspects of the Centre’s work. For an overview of the Centre’s activities, please see www.oecd.org/dev 3 ISBN: 978-92-64-03762-5 © OECD 2007 Chinese Econonomic Performance in the Long Run: 960–2030 AD Foreword When historians look back at our period, it is likely that few developments will appear quite so striking as the economic emergence of China. When those historians step back a bit further, though, they will see that this was not an emergence, but a re-emergence. China may well be on course to become the world’s largest economy, but it has held that title before – little more than a hundred years ago. Our knowledge of China’s long-term economic development is based in large part on the work of the author of this book, Angus Maddison. In a series of remarkable studies over the years, Mr. Maddison has traced the course of China and the world’s economy over the past 2000 years. This is a staggering intellectual achievement, and one with which the OECD is proud to be associated. His work has deepened immeasurably our understanding of the long-term growth of the global economy – the challenges that were met and the opportunities that were missed. The world faces a new set of economic opportunities and challenges, and China lies at the heart of them. Years of phenomenal growth have made China one of the engines of the global economy, bringing great benefits: the lives of millions of Chinese have been transformed, providing them with new opportunities for work, travel and personal development. But there are challenges that need to be addressed if China is to continue on this growth path. They include increasing inequality in income distribution; regional disparities; population ageing; environmental degradation and impediments to innovation. Yet, by overcoming those, the Chinese economy will provide the foundation to future prosperity and wellbeing of its population. In recent years, OECD has worked ever more closely with China to examine issues such as these, sharing insights we have gained from our member countries and learning from the extraordinary experience of this country. Our analysis has focused on issues such as governance, the economy, agriculture, innovation and environmental performance, as well as its growing economic relationships with countries in Africa and South America. Now, as this book – the 2nd edition of Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run – goes to press, OECD is beginning a new phase of our relationship, a process we call “enhanced engagement”. A deepening of our ties with China is indeed essential if OECD is to continue to play its role in developing responses to global policy challenges.