APPLICATION OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES TO CONSERVATION AND RESTORATION OF MEDITERRANEAN QUERCUS UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS PhD THESIS CORDOBA UNIVERSITY JOAQUÍN DUQUE LAZO MAY 2018 TITULO: Application of spatial analysis techniques to conservation and restoration of Mediterranean Quercus under future climate change scenarios AUTOR: Joaquín Duque Lazo © Edita: UCOPress. 2018 Campus de Rabanales Ctra. Nacional IV, Km. 396 A 14071 Córdoba https://www.uco.es/ucopress/index.php/es/ [email protected] DEPARTAMENTO DE INGENIERIA FORESTAL ESCUELA TÉCNICA UNIVERSITARIA DE INGENIEROS AGRÓNOMOS Y MONTES (ETSIAM) UNIVERSIDAD DE CÓRDOBA TESIS DOCTORAL APPLICATION OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES TO CONSERVATION AND RESTORATION OF MEDITERRANEAN QUERCUS UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS APLICACIÓN DE TÉCNICAS DE ANÁLISIS ESPACIAL PARA LA CONSERVACIÓN Y RESTAURACIÓN DEL QUERCUS MEDITERRÁNEO BAJO ESCENARIOS FUTUROS DE CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO JOAQUÍN DUQUE LAZO Director: RAFAEL MARÍA NAVARRO CERRILLO Córdoba, 14 de Mayo de 2018 PROGRAMA DE DOCTORADO BIOCIENCIAS Y CIENCIAS AGROALIMENTARIAS Index Informe Razonado del Director de la Tesis ............................................................................. 7 Actividades Realizadas ................................................................................................................ 10 Acknowledgement ......................................................................................................................... 19 Abstract ............................................................................................................................................. 23 Chapter 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 31 1.1. Introduction ..............................................................................................................................................32 1.1.1. Forest ecosystems and climate change. .....................................................................................32 1.1.2. Forest decline ........................................................................................................................................34 1.2. Mediterranean oak forest and oak decline ..................................................................................36 1.2.1. Mediterranean oak forest ................................................................................................................36 1.2.2. Mediterranean oak afforestations ...............................................................................................37 1.2.3. The main Mediterranean oak species: Quercus ilex and Quercus suber .....................37 1.3. Oak decline ................................................................................................................................................40 1.3.1. Phytophthora cinnamomi Rands .................................................................................................42 1.3.2. Xylophage insects and oak decline ..............................................................................................43 1.4. Big data, data mining and machine learning.............................................................................44 1.4.1. Species Distribution Models............................................................................................................47 1.5. Hypothesis, objective and structure................................................................................................50 1.6. References ..................................................................................................................................................53 Chapter 2. Transferability of species distribution models: The case of Phytophthora cinnamomi in Southwest Spain and Southwest Australia ................... 64 Abstract ...............................................................................................................................................................65 Chapter 3. Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia: Identification of priority areas for intervention .......................................... 77 Abstract ...............................................................................................................................................................78 Chapter 4. What to save, the host or the pest? The spatial distribution of xylophage insects within the Mediterranean oak woodlands of Southwestern Spain .................................................................................................................................. 95 Abstract ...............................................................................................................................................................96 Chapter 5. Assessment of the future stability of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) afforestation under climate change scenarios in Southwest Spain. .......................... 111 Abstract ............................................................................................................................................................ 112 Chapter 6. General discussion .......................................................................................... 129 6.1. General Discussion .............................................................................................................................. 130 6.1.1. Forest decline ..................................................................................................................................... 130 6.1.2. Database .............................................................................................................................................. 131 6.1.3. Oak decline .......................................................................................................................................... 131 6.1.4. The performance of SDM on forest pest distribution ....................................................... 133 6.1.5. Habitat characterization and response curve of oak declining agents .................... 134 6.1.6. Correlation of current projections ............................................................................................ 137 6.1.7. Afforestations and climatic stability........................................................................................ 137 6.2. Transferability of SDMs .................................................................................................................... 138 6.3. Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi ........................................ 139 6.4. Cerambyx “complex” in Andalusia ............................................................................................... 142 6.5. Assessing the future stability of cork oak afforestations .................................................... 143 6.6. Limitations and future research ................................................................................................... 144 6.7. References ............................................................................................................................................... 147 Chapter 7. Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 157 Annexes, other publications .................................................................................................... 160 Annex I: Climate change may threaten the southernmost Pinus nigra subsp. salzmannii (Dunal) Franco populations: an ensemble niche-based approach ..... 160 Abstract ............................................................................................................................................................ 161 ¿Qué tienes tú, negra encina campesina con tus ramas sin color en el campo sin verdor; con tu tronco ceniciento sin esbeltez ni altiveza, con tu vigor sin tormento, y tu humildad que es firmeza? En tu copa ancha y redonda nada brilla, ni tu verdioscura fronda ni tu flor verdiamarilla. Nada es lindo ni arrogante en tu porte, ni guerrero, nada fiero que aderece su talante. Brotas derecha o torcida con esa humildad que cede sólo a la ley de la vida, que es vivir como se puede. Antonio Machado “Hasta que caves un agujero, plantes un árbol, lo riegues y lo hagas sobrevivir, no has hecho nada. Sólo estás hablando” Wangari Maathai “A cada día su afán” Mi mujer DEPARTAMENTO DE INGENIERIA FORESTAL ESCUELA TÉCNICA UNIVERSITARIA DE INGENIEROS AGRÓNOMOS Y MONTES (ETSIAM) UNIVERSIDAD DE CÓRDOBA TESIS DOCTORAL APPLICATION OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES TO CONSERVATION AND RESTORATION OF MEDITERRANEAN QUERCUS UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS JOAQUÍN DUQUE LAZO Director: RAFAEL MARÍA NAVARRO CERRILLO Córdoba, 4 de Mayo de 2018 PROGRAMA DE DOCTORADO BIOCIENCIAS Y CIENCIAS AGROALIMENTARIA Acknowledgements Acknowledgements It is a pleasure to thank many people who made this PhD thesis possible. It was a long journey looking for a goal that seemed unattainable but that we have finally achieved. In the long way I have met many people from different countries who influence and help me at some stage. First of all, I would like to express my deep gratitude to my supervisor, Prof. Dr. Rafael M. Navarro Cerrillo. He offered me the opportunity to develop this PhD thesis; He supported, advised and kept me on the right direction every time I was “climbing trees”, without