PAradigm SHifts Modelling and INnovative Approaches Qualitative Scenarios Qualitative Scenarios Deliverable 1.1 Organisation : ISIS Date: December 2010 References: http://80.33.141.76/pashmina/ http://80.33.141.76/pashmina_models/ 1 PAradigm SHifts Modelling and INnovative Approaches Qualitative Scenarios ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ISIS would like to acknowledge the Project Partners, the Members of the Scientific Advisory Board and the external experts who contributed their ideas and expertise to this deliverable. We are especially grateful to Olivia Bina, Research Fellow, Institute of Social Sciences University of Lisbon, for her insight and inspiring advice. Report information Title: Deliverable 1.1. – “Qualitative Scenarios” Author: ISIS (Carlo Sessa, Andrea Ricci, Riccardo Enei, Giovanna Giuffrè) Mcrit Version: 1.1 Date of Publication: November 2010 Project Information Project Acronym: PASHMINA Project Name: “Paradigm Shifts Modelling and Innovative Approaches” Duration: January 2010 – December 2012 Commissioned by: Directorate General for Research, EC Lead Partner: ISIS 2 PAradigm SHifts Modelling and INnovative Approaches Qualitative Scenarios Table of Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 4 2. Developing visions of paradigm shifts: the ―Paradigm Shift Analyzer‖ .............................................. 6 3. Global Scenarios Review ........................................................................................................................... 12 3.1 Growing within Limits Scenarios, by Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ....................12 3.2 The Four Energy Descent and Climate Scenarios, by David Holmgren ...............................................14 3.3 Green Tomorrows: the Scenarios, by Jamais Cascio .................................................................................16 3.4 Shell global scenarios to 2025 ........................................................................................................................18 3.5 Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 .....................................................................................................................21 3.6 EPO Scenarios for the future, by European Patent Office ......................................................................22 3.7 Global Explanatory Scenarios – 2025, by the Millenium Project ............................................................24 3.8 2020 Global Energy Scenarios, by the Millenium Project ........................................................................26 3.9 Three Middle East Peace Scenarios, by the Millennium Project .............................................................28 3.10 Future S&T Management Policy Issues 2025 Global Scenarios, by the Millenium Project .............30 3.11 Anti-Terrorism Scenarios, by the Millenium Project ...............................................................................32 3.12 Global Normative Scenarios, by the Millenium Project .........................................................................35 3.13 Land Use Change Scenarios, by Rudolf de Groot, Kasper Kok, Mita Patel .......................................37 3.14 Future Europe Scenarios by Adjiedj Bakas, ..............................................................................................39 3.15 Northern Mediterranean Scenarios, by Intelcity ......................................................................................41 3.16 Great Transition Scenarios, by Global Scenario Group .........................................................................44 3.17 IPCC Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES), by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ......................................................................................................................................................................47 3.18 Scenarios for Europe 2010. Five Possible Futures for Europe, by Forward Studies Unit, European Commission. ............................................................................................................................................................49 3.19 Global Scenarios to 2025, by US National Intelligence Council ...........................................................52 3.20 Which World Scenarios, by Allen Hammond ..........................................................................................54 3.21 Global Scenarios, by Graeme Taylor .........................................................................................................56 3.22 World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBSCD) Global Scenarios 2000-2050 ....57 3.23 Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050, by World Energy Council .................................................................59 3.24 Intelligent Infrastructure Futures The Scenarios – Towards 2055, by Office of Science and Technology. .............................................................................................................................................................61 3.25 Millennium Assessment Scenarios, by Millennium Ecosystem Assessment .......................................67 4. Delphi Process ............................................................................................................................................. 69 4.1 1st Delphi Survey (September 2010) .............................................................................................................69 4.2 2nd Delphi Survey (October 2010) ........................................................................................................... 112 5. PASHMINA Qualitative Scenarios ........................................................................................................ 131 5.1 Overview of the four explorative scenarios ............................................................................................. 132 5.2 Growth without limits: global convergence towards an increasingly unequal world ........................ 137 5.3 Growth within limits: a global low carbon economy .............................................................................. 149 5.4 Global stagnation and conflicts in a resource constrained world ......................................................... 167 5.5 Global transition towards a ―beyond-growth‖ society ........................................................................... 171 5.6 Bibliography .................................................................................................................................................. 225 3 PAradigm SHifts Modelling and INnovative Approaches Qualitative Scenarios 1. Introduction PASHMINA WP1 Global meta-analysis aimed to deliver comprehensive qualitative scenarios for Europe by scanning the range of development options up to 2030 and 2050, harmonising and integrating quantitative results from many previous future-studies and developing a new generation of long term metamodels. The analysis has been done developing two parallel streams of investigation: Qualitative analysis: identification of “shifts” in future trends in relation to a plurality of socio- economic, technological, territorial, environmental and institutional factors (Task 1.1). This task aimed to develop visions of alternative futures (exploratory scenarios) based on a qualitative analysis of different pathways of development dependent on key drivers and paradigm shifts. A community of experts of different disciplines has been involved in a DELPHI survey. Special attention has been given to possible paradigm shifts in the energy-transport-environment nexus and the land-use and territorial functions within the next decades in Europe, developing separate analyses for: 1) energy transition the climate change challenge; 2) changes in urban form and dominant transport patterns; 3) changes in rural land use and biodiversity. Quantitative analysis: developing of meta-models and long-term forecasts (Tasks 1.2 to 1.5). The metamodels address the main long-term evolutions of key economic, social, technological and environmental indicators, showing up possible future states of the system at 2050, including the impact of different paradigm shifts that may result by a number of unfolding demographic economic, social and cultural trends, global environmental changes and breakthrough discontinuities, as for instance the emergence of new technologies and applications (e.g. nanotechnologies, competitive solar energy, zero-emission technological process etc.). These two streams of analysis have been coordinated and coherent qualitative and quantitative appraisal results are presented now in two deliverables: D 1.1 – Qualitative Scenarios: this deliverable includes the background paper presenting the “Paradigm Shift Analyser”, i.e. the conceptual tool used to frame the DELPHI survey, a review of the most prominent global scenarios available from recent studies and foresight exercises, the description of the DELPHI process and the summary of experts’ opinions about a first sketch of the four qualitative scenarios – the so called “pear”, “apple”, “orange” and “potato” world scenarios - and finally the description of the PASHMINA explorative scenarios emerging as a result of the whole qualitative analysis. Qualitative scenarios’ features have been harmonised with the forecast of key variables undertaken in the quantitative stream of analysis. For this purpose, an