COMMUNITY CLIMATE CH ANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Acknowledgements : This study is the result of a collaboration with four municipalities in the Western Valley Region, New Brunswick. This work was made possible by the participation of dedicated the residents from each community who formed the working groups, the Western Valley Regional Service Commission’s Planning Manager Katelyn Hayden, as well as Mark Castonguay and Dr. Paul Arp of the UNB Forest Watershed Research Centre. This work was funded by the Royal Bank of Canada Reproduction of this report in part or full requires written permission from WWF General disclaimer: Information in this report was obtained from highly regarded data sources, references, and individual experts. It is the intent to print accurate and reliable information. However, the authors are not responsible for the validity of all information presented in this report or for the consequences of its use. The views, opinions, or conclusions expressed in this report are those of the communities and do not necessarily reflect those of the WWF-Canada or the authors. Published: January 2017 By : Simon J. Mitchell (Senior Specialist, Freshwater) WWF Canada; Kim Reeder, Consultant Cover photo: St. John River near Woodstock, New Brunswick © Simon Mitchell / WWF-Canada TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................... 1 2 Background ...................................................................................................................................................................... 3 3 Regional Characterization ............................................................................................................................................... 5 3.1 Climate .................................................................................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Forest ....................................................................................................................................................................... 7 3.3 Wildlife and Habitat ................................................................................................................................................ 8 3.4 Settlement ............................................................................................................................................................... 8 3.5 Economy .................................................................................................................................................................. 8 3.6 Regional Climate Impacts ........................................................................................................................................ 8 3.6.1 Observed Impacts ............................................................................................................................................ 8 3.6.2 Projected Impacts ............................................................................................................................................ 9 3.7 Response to Impacts ............................................................................................................................................. 15 4 Assessment Methodology ............................................................................................................................................. 16 4.1 Community Vulnerability Assessment (CVA) Process ........................................................................................... 16 4.2 Selection of the Working Group Members ........................................................................................................... 18 4.3 Data Inputs ............................................................................................................................................................ 19 4.3.1 LiDAR ............................................................................................................................................................. 19 4.3.2 RESULTS FROM COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT MEETINGS ............................................................................................. 21 4.4 Environmental Considerations .............................................................................................................................. 41 5 Assessment of Vulnerability and Risk ............................................................................................................................ 44 5.1 Meeting 4 – June 25 th , 2015 .................................................................................................................................. 44 5.1.1 Sensitivity ...................................................................................................................................................... 44 5.1.2 Municipal Adaptive Capacity ......................................................................................................................... 47 5.1.3 Vulnerability Scores ....................................................................................................................................... 49 5.1.4 Likelihood Scores ........................................................................................................................................... 50 5.1.5 Consequence Scores ...................................................................................................................................... 51 5.1.6 Risk Scores ..................................................................................................................................................... 52 6 Next Steps ..................................................................................................................................................................... 55 7 References ..................................................................................................................................................................... 56 8 APPENDIX A ................................................................................................................................................................... 58 9 APPENDIX B ................................................................................................................................................................... 81 10 APPENDIX C ............................................................................................................................................................... 82 11 APPENDIX D ............................................................................................................................................................... 86 12 APPENDIX E ............................................................................................................................................................... 88 13 APPENDIX F ................................................................................................................................................................ 93 14 APPENDIX G ............................................................................................................................................................... 94 List of Figures Figure 1.Ecoregion Map of New Brunswick. Source: Our Landscape Heritage, Vincent F. Zelazny .......................................................... 6 Figure 2. Ecoregion Map of New Brunswick, study communities highlighted in red. Source: Our Landscape Heritage, Vincent F. Zelazny ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 3. NBELC Ecodistrict 5.3 - Meductic; defined by geomorphology, geology and tree species. Source: Our Landscape Heritage, Vincent F. Zelazny ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 4. Source: Chapter 11, Our Landscape Heritage, Vincent F. Zelazny .............................................................................................. 8 Figure 5. ACASA-derived map of New Brunswick’s average annual mean temperature, for the periods 1971 – 2000 utilizing current emissions ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 10 Figure 6. ACASA-derived map of New Brunswick’s average annual mean temperature, for the periods 1971 – 2000 utilizing an A2 emissions scenario................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 7. ACASA-derived map of New Brunswick’s average annual mean temperature, for the periods 2041 - 2070 utilizing an A2 emissions scenario................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 8. ACASA-derived map of New Brunswick’s average annual mean temperature, for the periods 2070 - 2100 utilizing an A2