Hampshire County Council Childcare Sufficiency Annual Update for Basingstoke and Deane Area: Basingstoke and Deane Period: April 2018 - March 2019 Report by: Linda Clarkson, Childcare Development & Business Officer (CDBO) 1. Area demographic profile Number and ages of children According to Hampshire’s Small Area Population Forecast (version 2017) there are a total of: Sources: 0 - 4 years 10861 5 - 14 years 22477 http://www.hants.gov.uk/factsandfigures/ 15 - 19 years 9109 population-statistics/pop-estimates/small- area-pop-stats.htm The forecast for 2020 indicates 11204 children a rise of (343) children within this age range over SfYC District by age graphing tool 2016 the next (3) years and an increase of this – 2023 population by (3.16%). This in turn will have an SfYC Ward by age graphing tool 2016 - impact on childcare and school places in the 2023 district. Labour Market Bulletin 9,600 (1.2%) claimants Basingstoke and Deane. February 2019 The Hampshire average 1.5% with the National https://www.solentgrowthhub.co.uk/wp- average at 2.6% content/uploads/2019/08/Hampshire- Labour-Market-Bulletin-Feb-19.pdf and DWP Out-of-Work Benefits (Not updated this https://www.solentgrowthhub.co.uk/wp- month, next release May 2019) content/uploads/2019/08/Hampshire- DWP Out-of-work benefits for August 2018 stood Labour-Market-Bulletin-Feb-19.pdf at 69,290. This equates to an estimated rate 6.0% of the working age population (16-64yrs), aligned with the South East (6.0%), but below the national average (8.8%). The lowest of the 14 HIOW authorities is Hart (3.0%) and the highest is the Isle of Wight (9.9%). Under Universal Credit a broader span of claimants are required to look for work than under Jobseeker's Allowance. As Universal Credit Full Service is rolled out the number of people recorded as being on the Claimant Count is therefore likely to rise. Department for Work and Pensions DWP data set for Spring 2019 indicated that there (DWP) 2 year olds were 371 children eligible for the two year old scheme. There was 269 claims within this Source: HCC Early Years Tool reporting period therefore 70% conversion of Headcount/ DWP data places. Employment profiles and income: Population 16-64 110,100 Source: ONS Population estimates Source: Percentage working = 84.4% (93,300) https://www.solentgrowthhub.co.uk/wp- employment breakdown: content/uploads/2019/08/Hampshire- Number % Labour-Market-Bulletin-Feb-19.pdf Employed (full-time) 61000 70.9 1 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/ la/1946157300/report.aspx?c1=1941962 Employed (part-time) 25,000 29.1 884&c2=2092957698#tabrespop Self-employed 7,300 12.3 Full-time student # N/A Student # N/A Looking after home / # N/A family Total: 93,300 84.4 Housing Development The Basingstoke and Deane Local Plan (2011– 2029) was adopted in May 2016. Within the Source: Taken from Basingstoke and borough of Basingstoke and Deane major housing growth is taking place at the following Deane District Local Plan: Housing & locations: employment allocations March 2016 https://www.basingstoke.gov.uk/content/ Manydown 3500 page/48082/AMR%202016.pdf East of Basingstoke (Chineham) 615 Cufaude Farm 150 https://www.basingstoke.gov.uk/rte.aspx Golf Course, Beggarwood 1000 ?id=799 Hounsome Fields 750 2. Childcare places analysis 2.1 Childcare mix known at May 2019 This data is produced by the Services for Young Children Local Development Team (LDT) of Ofsted registered childcare from known changes in the childcare market that have occurred in the period. Table 1 Childcare Places Source: All Services Report, Capita Provider Total Total number Total Total number Net growth type number of of registered number of of registered or loss of providers places gained providers spaces lost (if places gained or (if known) lost known) since the settings last quarter that have (- / + ) extended places Childminders 6 15 <27 Home child carers 4 5 -2 EYE Non- Domestic Premises – 2 60 2 60 0 Full Day Care 2 EYE Non- Domestic Premises – Term Time Care 54 0 Q3 2 54 2 Q4 Holiday Playscheme 1 30 0 0 30 ASC (inc BC) 2 30 1 15 15 Comment: During this year 22 childminders have opened, 4 home childcarers, 1 nursery, 2 term time provisions and a breakfast club. However 26 childminders have ceased operating, 11 home childcarers have ended their registration, 2 term time providers, 1 holiday scheme and 1 after school club have closed. While the figures indicate an overall loss of 15 known childminder places many of these will not have been active. An assumption of 2 places has been made on the number of homechildcare places as it is not known how many children they support which results in a loss of 2 places. During this period 2 term time providers have opened offering 62 places so the overall loss to the market is 14 places. 2.2 New childcare and early years provision known at April – March 2019 This is data that is known to the Local Development Team of childcare developments that have completed registration in the period. That data includes all types of provision including childminders. Table 2 New Provisions Source: All Services Report, Capita ONE Ward Postcode Total Age range offered1 Type of setting2 (first places 0-<2 2-<3 3-<5 5+ FDC/SC/OSC/CM part) offered /HC Rooksdown RG24 9 6 Childminders South Ham RG22 6 5 Childminders Hatch Warren RG22 4 Childminders 3 and Beggarwood South Ham RG22 6 Childminders Popley East RG24 9 Childminders South Ham RG22 6 46 FDC Basing RG24 7 38 SC Sherborne St RG26 5 HC John 1 Where providers have informed data will be inserted for age range. Assumption will be made based on information provided to the development officer where data is not provided. Childminders will be assumed 3 places. 2 Key: FDC – Full Day Care, SC – Sessional Care, OSC- Out of School Care, CM – Childminder, HC – Home Child Carer 3 Pamber and RG26 3 HC Silchester Out of County RG10 8 HC Oakley and North RG23 7 HC Waltham Oakley and North RG25 2 HC Waltham Burghcl, Highcl. & RG20 9 HC St Mary Bourne Upton Grey and RG25 2 HC The Candovers Hatch Warren HPS RG22 4 and Beggarwood Winklebury RG23 8 HPS Burghcl, Highcl. & OSC/BC RG20 9 16 St Mary Bourne Winklebury RG23 8 Total Comment: If an assumption of 3 children per childminder is made where no numbers are known it can be estimated that there will be 20 new childminder places in the market. An assumption of 2 children per Home childcarer adds 14 places to the market with a further46 full day care places in Southam plus 38 term time places in Old Basing. The opening of an out of school/breakfast club provisions will provide 16 new places Burghclere while 2 holiday schemes will offer places in Hatchwarren & Beggerwood and Winklebury 2.3 Proposed childcare and early years provision known at May 2019 This is data known to the Local Development Team of childcare provision that is proposed to be developed. It is likely that these provisions have made application to Ofsted. Table 3 Proposed Provision Source: All Services Report, Capita ONE Ward Postcode Total Age range offered Typ e of set ting (first part) places 0-<2 2-<3 3-<5 5+ FDC/SC/OSC/C offered M/HC Total Comment: It is likely that the proposed provision had converted to known providers above or withdrawn their interest at this time 2.4 Early years and childcare provision under threat of closure known at March 2019 This data is provided by the Local Development Team to indicate areas where childcare operations are known to have difficulty in the childcare market. Table 4 Provision under threat of closure 4 Source: LDT Quarterly Reports Ward Postcode Total Age range offered Type of setting (first part) places 0-<2 2-<3 3-<5 5+ FDC/SC/OSC/CM/ offered HC Kempshott RG22 5 30 SC Total Comment: While we have been made aware of a setting that will close at the end of the summer term a new provider has been identified. 2.5 Early years and childcare provision closed at March 2019 This data provided by Local Development Team of known closures of childcare operations in the period. Table 5 Provision Closed Source: All Services Report, Capita ONE Ward Postcode Total Age range offered Type of (first part) places 0-<2 2-<3 3-<5 5+ setting offered FDC/SC/OSC/ CM/HC Hatch Warren RG22 4 3 Childminders and Beggarwood Whitchurch RG28 7 4 Childminders Winklebury RG23 8 5 Childminders Grove RG21 3 Childminders Kempshott RG22 5 3 Childminders Brighton Hill RG22 4 6 Childminders North Brighton Hill RG22 4 Childminders North Chineham RG24 8 6 Childminders Chineham RG27 0 Childminders Popley East RG24 9 Childminders Upton Grey and RG25 2 Childminders The Candovers Rooksdown RG24 9 2 Childminders Baughurst and RG26 5 Childminders Tadley North Basing RG24 8 6 Childminders Kingsclere RG20 5 Childminders Buckskin RG22 6 3 Childminders Chineham RG24 8 3 Childminders Kempshott RG22 4 6 Childminders Norden RG21 4 Childminders Basing RG24 8 8 Childminders South Ham RG22 6 50 FDC Eastrop RG21 7 48 FDC Basing RG24 7 24 SC Brookvale and RG21 7 HC 5 Kings Furlong South Ham RG22 6 34 OSC Brighton Hill OSC RG22 4 South Total Note: Where a number is not indicated the assumption is that the carer has not provided childcare for some time. Comment: In this period the assumption is that there has been a total potential loss of up to 74 places.