POLITICAL REPORT POLITICAL REPORT A MONTHLY POLL COMPILATION Volume 15, Issue 7 • July/August 2019 IN THIS ISSUE: Donald Trump and 2020 (pp.1–3) | Revisiting Polls on Brett Kavanaugh (pp.4–7) Trump’s ReelectionPOLITICAL Prospects: Early Sentiments REPORT In recent polls, higher percentages of registered voters have said they definitely plan to vote against Donald Trump in 2020 than said the same about Barack Obama at a comparable time in the 2012 election cycle. On this page and the next, we put polls that ask about intention to vote for or against Trump in context. His favorabil- ity rating has been relatively low since before he was elected in 2016, and in Fox’s trends, definite opposition to Trump’s reelection tracks closely with strong disapproval and strongly unfavorable views of him. Q: If the 2020 (2012) presidential election were held today, would you . ? POLITICTrump in 2020 AL---–- REPOR Obama in 2012 --–-- T May Aug. Jun. Jan. 2019 2011 2011 2011 Definitely vote to reelect 28% 29% 28% 23% Probably vote to reelect 10 15 16 19 Probably vote for someone else 7 9 13 15 Definitely vote for someone else 46 42 36 36 Note: Samples are registered voters. The surveys shown above are ones taken in the year prior to each election year. Earlier surveys are not shown. In May 2019, 68 percent of people who voted for Trump in 2016 said they would definitely vote to reelect him in 2020; 84 percent of Clinton voters said they would definitely vote for someone other than Trump in 2020. Source: Fox News, latest that of May 2019. Comparing Intent to Definitely Vote Against Trump with Strongly Negative Opinions 100 Definitely vote for someone else (not Trump) 90 Strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing 80 Strongly unfavorable opinion of Trump 70 60 50 48% 49% 46% 40 41% 41% 42% 30 20 10 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 Note: Samples are registered voters. Fox has asked the question about voting for Trump or someone else three times so far in this election cycle—in January 2018, December 2018, and May 2019. In the approval and favorability questions, only those who expressed opinions (approve/disapprove; favorable/unfavorable) were asked the “strongly or only somewhat” follow-up questions. Source: Fox News, latest that of June 2019. (Continued on the next page) AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org (Continued from the previous page) In NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist polls, higher percentages have said they definitely plan to vote against Trump than gave that response about Obama in the first half of 2011. However, the percentages saying they definitely plan to vote for Trump have been similar to what they were for Obama. In a recent survey, ABC News/Washington Post pollsters asked five presidential matchup questions pitting Trump against Democratic candidates. Those who did not choose Trump in any of the matchups feel more strongly about defeating him than those who chose him every time feel about reelecting him. Q: Thinking about the 2020 (2012) election, do you . ? ———————————————— Trump in 2020 ———————————————— Apr. Mar. Jan. May–Jun. 2019 2019 2019 2019 Definitely plan to vote for Trump for re-election as president 36% 33% 35% 30% Definitely plan to vote against him 51 54 54 57 Unsure (vol.) 13 12 11 13 ———————————————— Obama in 2012 ———————————————— Nov. Sep. Aug. Jun. Apr. 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Definitely plan to vote for Obama for re-election as president 38% 36% 40% 36% 37% Definitely plan to vote against him 48 49 40 43 44 Unsure (vol.) 14 15 20 21 18 Note: Samples are registered voters. “Unsure” was volunteered. The surveys shown above are ones taken in the year prior to each election year. Earlier surveys not shown. Source: For Trump, NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, latest that of May–June 2019. For Obama, McClatchy/Marist Poll, latest that of November 2011. Q: If the 2020 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were (Donald Trump, the Republican) and (______, the Democrat), for whom would you vote? Would you lean toward (Trump) or (______)? Joe Biden; Bernie Sanders; Elizabeth Warren; Kamala Harris; Pete Buttigieg Q: (Asked of those who chose Trump in all questions) How important is it to you personally that Trump wins a second term as president? Q: (Asked of those who did not choose Trump in any question) How important is it to you personally that Trump does not win a second term as president? Chose Trump in all questions 43% Did not choose Trump in any question 51% Extremely important to you that Extremely important to you that Trump wins a second term 22 Trump does not win a second term 37 Very important 11 Very important 8 Somewhat important 7 Somewhat important 3 Less important than that 3 Less important than that 2 Answer was not Trump in at least one question 58 Chose Trump in at least one question 49 Note: Separate questions were asked about each candidate matchup. Those who did not choose Trump in any question were also asked if there was a chance they would consider voting for Trump against any possible Democratic candidate. Two percent said they would not; 48 percent said they would. In the same poll, 44 percent of adults said they approved of the way Donald Trump was han- dling his job as president; 53 percent disapproved. Source: ABC News/Washington Post, June–July 2019. (Continued on the next page) AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 2 Democrats and the Electability Question A few recent polls have asked Democrats whether a candidate’s chances of beating Trump or views on the issues matter more to them. In a July NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 51 percent of registered voters who plan to vote in Democratic primaries said it is more important to them to have a candidate who comes closest to their views on the issues. When similar questions were asked of broader groups of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in recent CNN and Gallup surveys, majorities prioritized a candidate’s chance of beating Trump. Q: In selecting a presidential nominee for the Democratic Party, which of the following is most important to you . ? Responses of registered voters who say they would vote in Democratic primaries or caucuses A candidate who comes closest to your views on the issues 51% A candidate with the best chance to defeat Donald Trump 45 Note: In July 2015, 79 percent of Democratic primary voters said it was more important to them to select a Democratic nominee who came closest to their views on the issues; 20 percent that it was more important to select one with the best change to defeat the Republican candidate. Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, July 2019. In an October 2011 NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey, 67 percent of registered voters who planned to vote in Republican primaries said it was more important to them to select a Republican nominee who came closest to their views on the issues, while 31 percent said it was more important to them to select a candidate with the best chance to defeat Barack Obama. In January 2012, those responses were 54 percent and 43 percent, respectively. Q: Which is more important to you personally . ? Responses of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters That the Democratic Party nominate a presidential candidate who shares your positions on major issues 30% That the Democratic Party nominate a presidential candidate with a strong chance of beating Donald Trump 61 Source: CNN, June 2019. Q: Which type of candidate would you prefer to see [your party] nominate for president . a candidate who agrees with you on almost all of the issues you care about but does not have the best chance of beating [the incumbent from the opposing party], or a candidate who has the best chance of beating [the incumbent from the opposing party] but who does not agree with you on almost all of the issues you care about? Agrees with you on issues Best chance of beating Trump Democrats’ responses 39% Jun. 2019 58% Agrees with you on issues Best chance of beating Obama Republicans’ responses 45% Nov. 2011 47% 43 Sep. 2011 53 44 Jun. 2011 50 Note: Responses by party include those of independents who lean toward the party. Source: Gallup, latest that of June 2019. AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 3 Revisiting the 2018 Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle On September 4, 2018, the Senate Judiciary Committee began its hearings on the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to serve on the Supreme Court. In the following pages, we review public opinion over the course of the confirmation fight. Most of the final polls from the major pollsters showed more opposition to than support for his confirmation, which occurred on October 6 by a vote of 50 to 48. Final Pre-Confirmation Polls* Politico/Morning Consult Quinnipiac (Online, RV) Gallup (RV) Sep. 28–29 Sep. 24–30 Sep. 27–30 Support 37% 46% 42% Oppose 40 45 48 Economist/YouGov NPR/PBS (Online) NewsHour/Marist CNN Oct. 1 Oct. 1 Oct. 4–7 Support 33% 41% 41% Oppose 43 48 51 Note: Question wording varied. RV indicates sample is registered voters.*With the exception of the CNN poll that was conducted before and immediately after the vote, the results shown are from the final survey before the vote in which each pollster asked the question.