Anticipatory Governance Practical Upgrades Equipping the Executive Branch to Cope with Increasing Speed and Complexity of Major Challenges Leon S. Fuerth with Evan M.H. Faber October 2012 Cover by Meaghan Charlton Graphics and Design by Meaghan Charlton, Evan Faber, and Jocelyn Jezierny Disclaimer The concepts presented in this report were developed by Leon Fuerth during the period 2001–2011 and refined during a series of workshops held at the National Defense University from April 2011–July 2011. The workshops convened experts from in and outside government to vet, validate, and build upon Anticipatory Governance concepts based on strict criteria for practical implementation. All workshops operated under the Chatham House Rule, meaning participants entered under agreement from all parties that the discussion would be private, comments would not be attributed to individual persons, and it would be assumed that participants spoke for themselves personally rather than for any institution. The initiatives proposed in this document represent a synthesis of the best ideas that emerged from the 2011 working group process. The concepts have also undergone supplementary scrutiny in a series of individual encounters with very senior officials from the present and past administrations that took place from September 2011–April 2012. The concepts described herein do not represent the views or opinions of The George Washington University, National Defense University, Department of Defense, Federal Government, or any other institutions associated with the Project on Forward Engagement. Endorsers The following endorsements reflect a consensus within a group of exceptional public servants that—politics aside—our government systems and processes need to be upgraded to reflect the new realities of today’s complex challenges. These individuals have extraordinary credentials to pass judgment on what is practical and necessary for government. They have not lent their names casually: they have read this report and many of them have commented extensively on its contents. They do not all necessarily support each finding and every specific recommendation. They do, however, endorse the basic spirit and thrust of the proposals. While some of the steps suggested in the report have been tried by administrations in the past, endorsers agree that a more comprehensive and systematic approach is required. Fundamentally, endorsers agree that Anticipatory Governance identifies and addresses an important national problem and that the recommendations in this report are doable, affordable, politically neutral, and should be the basis for action. Madeleine K. Albright Former Secretary of State Charlene Barshefsky Former U.S. Trade Representative Samuel R. Berger Former National Security Advisor Dennis C. Blair Former Director of National Intelligence Carol M. Browner Former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency Zbigniew K. Brzezinski Former National Security Advisor William S. Cohen Former Secretary of Defense Thomas A. Daschle Former Senate Majority Leader Stephen J. Hadley Former National Security Advisor James L. Jones Former National Security Advisor Michael “Mickey” Kantor Former Secretary of Commerce; former U.S. Trade Representative Thomas F. McLarty III Former White House Chief of Staff Thomas R. Pickering Former Ambassador to the United Nations R. James Woolsey Former Director of Central Intelligence Gordon Adams Former Associate Director National Security Programs, Office of Management and Budget Robert D. Blackwill Former Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning Thomas Fingar Former Chair of the National Intelligence Council Michèle Flournoy Former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy James R. Jones Former Ambassador and Member of the U.S. House of Representatives Robert M. Kimmitt Former Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Alan J. Kreczko Former Legal Advisor to the National Security Council James M. Loy Former Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security John E. McLaughlin Former Deputy Director of Central Intelligence Joseph S. Nye Former Chair of the National Intelligence Council Anne-Marie Slaughter Former Director of Policy Planning, U.S. Department of State Mary C. Yates Former Senior Director for Strategic Planning, National Security Council Dov S. Zakheim Former Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) David M. Abshire President and CEO, Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress Graham Allison Director, Belfer Center, The John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Hans Binnendijk Former Vice President for Research and Applied Learning, National Defense University Richard J. Danzig Chairman, Center for a New American Security Richard Fontaine President, Center for a New American Security Jerome C. Glenn CEO, The Millennium Project Robert Kagan Senior Fellow, the Brookings Institution Ellen Laipson President and CEO, The Henry L. Stimson Center Timothy C. Mack President, World Future Society Neera Tanden President, Center for American Progress iii About the Project on Forward Engagement® The Project on Forward Engagement was established in 2001 by Leon Fuerth to explore methods for incorporating systematic foresight into the U.S. Federal policy process, and for configuring government systems to deal with challenges that are “complex,” rather than just “complicated.” Leon Fuerth’s career in the U.S. Government spanned more than three decades, including 11 years as a Foreign Service Officer, 14 years on Capitol Hill, and 8 years in the White House as the National Security Advisor to Vice President Al Gore. In the Clinton White House, Fuerth served on both the Principals’ and Deputies’ Committees of the National Security Council and the National Economic Council. Following government service, he became the J.B. and Maurice C. Shapiro Professor of International Affairs at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. He presently holds simultaneous appointments as Research Professor at the Elliott School and as Distinguished Research Fellow at the National Defense University. Evan Faber has a B.A. in Philosophy and an M.A. in International Science and Technology Policy from The George Washington University. For 6 years, his work has focused on applications of foresight and complexity theory to govern- ment, public policy, and foreign affairs, beginning as a student of Leon Fuerth and followed by 2 years as a Research Assistant and 2 years as the Executive Associate for the Project on Forward Engagement. Operating jointly at the National Defense University and the Elliott School of International Affairs at The George Washing- ton University, the Project is supported by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the National Defense University, and has also been supported by The George Washington University and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. Analysis, opinions, and proposals produced by the Project and contained herein do not represent the views or opinions of any of its supporting institutions. The Project on Forward Engagement is nonpartisan, not for profit, and policy neutral. The Project is exclusively concerned with the systems and processes by which policy is produced and implemented. More information is available at http://www.forwardengagement.org. The Project on Forward Engagement ® All Rights Reserved. Special thanks to: Neyla Arnas for dedicating extensive time and contributing wise counsel that was essential throughout the process of developing and promulgating this report The late James N. Rosenau for his brilliant mind and creativity in applying complexity theory to international affairs Rebecca Landis, Jillian Hayes, David Kay, Neil Sroka, Neil Padukone, and Justin Zorn for their valuable administrative and research support of the Project in its early stages, and to Joanna Nicoletti, Meaghan Charlton, and Jocelyn Jezierny for their support during the process of generating this report Students of the Elliott School course on “Forward Engagement” from 2001–2011 for their research, ideas, questions, and open minds, which contributed profoundly to the development of the theoretical concepts underlying this report VADM Ann E. Rondeau, USN (Ret.), Hans Binnendijk, Linton Wells II, Terry J. Pudas, and the National Defense University for their support and hospitality Frank Hoffman and Jeff Smotherman at NDU Press for their publication guidance and for copyediting the report The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Rockefeller Brothers’ Fund, and Stephen Joel Trachtenberg for their generous financial support for the Project. iv Contributors The following individuals contributed significantly to the ideas in and formulation of this report; some participated in the NDU workshops on Anticipatory Governance held at NDU in 2011, others commented on drafts of the report, and many contributed as both workshop participants and commenters. Participants in the workshops were not representing the official views of the organizations with which they were affiliated nor the official views of the U.S. government or any of its agencies. Neyla Arnas Senior Research Fellow, National Defense University John Arquilla Professor, Defense Analysis, U.S. Naval Postgraduate School Jamie Baker Chief Judge, United States Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces Daniel Y. Chiu Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy Alan Cohn Assistant Secretary of Homeland Security for Strategy, Planning, Analysis and Risk Carol Dumaine Founding Director, Global Futures Partnership/Forum Warren