GHANA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT June 2011 This report was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). It was prepared by the USDA Forest Service, International Programs. COVER PHOTOS: Courtesy of USFS, IP GHANA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT Prepared by John A. Stanturf, Melvin L. Warren, Jr., Susan Charnley, Sophia C. Polasky, Scott L. Goodrick, Frederick Armah, and Yaw Atuahene Nyako JUNE 2011 DISCLAIMER The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ··········································································· IX EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ··············································································· 1 Climate Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 1 Climate Variability and Change ....................................................................................................................... 2 Uncertainty of Climate Projections ................................................................................................................ 3 Climate Policy Framework ............................................................................................................................... 3 Agriculture and Livelihoods ............................................................................................................................. 5 Ecological Vulnerability ...................................................................................................................................... 7 Social Vulnerability ............................................................................................................................................. 8 Adaptation ............................................................................................................................................................ 9 Energy Sector..................................................................................................................................................... 10 Northern Savanna Case Study ....................................................................................................................... 11 Mainstreaming Climate Change ..................................................................................................................... 12 New Interventions for USAID Programming ............................................................................................. 15 1. INTRODUCTION ·············································································· 17 2. APPROACH ······················································································ 18 3. GHANA’S CLIMATE AND PROJECTED CHANGES ······························ 20 General Climate ................................................................................................................................................ 20 Climate Trends and Modeled Climate Change: Sources ........................................................................ 24 Recent Climate Trends ................................................................................................................................... 26 Climate Scenarios ............................................................................................................................................. 27 4. CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY FRAMEWORK ········································ 36 Climate Change Activities in Ghana ............................................................................................................. 36 REDD+ Policy Framework ............................................................................................................................. 37 Land Tenure in Ghana ..................................................................................................................................... 45 5. PHYSIOGRAPHY, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, AND LIVELIHOODS ············ 52 Physiographic Zones ........................................................................................................................................ 52 Ecological Zones ............................................................................................................................................... 53 Agriculture .......................................................................................................................................................... 58 Population and Economy ................................................................................................................................ 83 Crop production ............................................................................................................................................... 85 Livestock rearing ............................................................................................................................................... 85 Fisheries .............................................................................................................................................................. 86 Urban Verses Rural Livelihoods .................................................................................................................... 87 Rural Livelihoods on the Coast ..................................................................................................................... 88 Rural Livelihoods in the Forest ..................................................................................................................... 88 Rural Livelihoods in the Savanna ................................................................................................................... 89 6. VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE ··········································· 91 Natural Systems Vulnerability ........................................................................................................................ 91 7. SOCIAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN GHANA ··········· 118 Defining and Assessing Social Vulnerability to Climate Change .......................................................... 118 Methods ............................................................................................................................................................ 119 Results and Discussion .................................................................................................................................. 124 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................................... 129 Reference and Indicator Maps ..................................................................................................................... 130 8. ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN GHANA: CASE STUDIES FROM THE COASTAL AND NORTHERN SAVANNA REGIONS ·········· 144 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 144 Case Study: Climate Change Adaptation in Ghana’s Coastal Zone .................................................. 147 Case Study: Climate Change Adaptation in Ghana’s Northern Savanna Regions ......................... 151 9. CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION IN GHANA – OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES ········································································ 160 Clean Development Mechanism Projects ................................................................................................. 160 Natural Gas and Offshore Oil Development ........................................................................................... 161 10. ENERGY SECTOR ··········································································· 164 Social impacts of oil and gas development ................................................................................................ 164 Climate Change Impacts On the Energy Sector ..................................................................................... 165 Climate Change and Hydropower .............................................................................................................. 166 11. OPTIONS FOR USAID PROGRAMMING············································ 172 Mainstreaming Climate Change ................................................................................................................... 172 New interventions for USAID programming ........................................................................................... 175 12. LITERATURE CITED ······································································· 184 APPENDIX 1. TEAM ITINERARY AND CONTACTS ··································· 200 APPENDIX 2. TEAM MEMBERS ································································ 207 APPENDIX 3. MATRIX OF CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIVITIES IN GHANA ······ 208 APPENDIX 4. TABLE OF POTENTIAL COLLABORATORS AND THEIR FOCUS AREAS ··············································································· 216 APPENDIX 5. SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE CHANGES (MID-RANGE VALUES) FOR THE VARIOUS ECO-CLIMATIC ZONES IN GHANA ····· 229 APPENDIX 6. SCENARIOS OF CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNT (MID-RANGE VALUES) FOR THE VARIOUS