South East Lincolnshire EmploymentPremises & Land Review FinalReport October2012 South East Lincolnshire Employment Premises & Land Review Boston Borough Council South Holland District Council FINAL REPORT October 2012 50193/MS/JR This document is formatted for double sided printing. © Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd 2012. Trading as Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners. All Rights Reserved. Registered Office: 14 Regent's Wharf All Saints Street London N1 9RL All plans within this document produced by NLP are based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A South East Lincolnshire Employment Premises & Land Review Contents Executive Summary i 1.0 Introduction 1 2.0 Economic Context 4 3.0 The South East Lincolnshire Commercial Property Market 13 4.0 Review of Current Employment Sites 29 5.0 Future Requirements for B Class Employment Space 43 6.0 Need for Additional Employment Land 56 7.0 Impacts of the Proposed Spalding Rail Freight Interchange 71 8.0 Economic Role of the Agricultural Sector in South East Lincolnshire 78 9.0 Overall Conclusions & Policy Recommendations 85 3068795v2 South East Lincolnshire Employment Premises & Land Review Figures3 Figure 1 Comparison of Demand/Supply in South East Lincolnshire by Growth Scenario v Figure 2.1 Sub-regional Context of South East Lincolnshire 4 Figure 2.2 Main Economic Sectors in South East Lincolnshire by share of employees, 2010 6 Figure 2.3 Employment Change in South East Lincolnshire by Sector, 2000-10 7 Figure 2.4 Occupation breakdown of South East Lincolnshire’s Residents relative to East Midlands/GB 9 Figure 2.5 Median Weekly Gross Earnings 9 Figure 3.1 Distribution of Employment Space in Boston and South Holland 15 Figure 3.2 Employment Floorspace in South East Lincolnshire and Surrounding Districts 16 Figure 3.3 Gross Development Rates 2004-12 – South East Lincolnshire 17 Figure 5.1 Outline of Approach to Scenarios 43 Figure 5.2 Gross Land Requirement by Scenario (ha) 52 Figure 5.3 Annual Job Growth Implied by Scenarios 53 Figure 6.1 Forecast surplus of office and industrial space to 2031 by scenario 58 Figure 6.2 Potential Mechanisms to Encourage Employment Development 66 Figure 7.1 Preferred location for Rail Freight Interchange 71 Figure 8.1 Horticultural Land under Cultivation In East Midlands 78 Figure 8.2 Value of Horticultural Exports in East Midlands 79 Figure 8.3 Employment in Horticulture in East Midlands 79 Figure 8.4 Main agricultural related sectors in South East Lincolnshire 80 Figure 8.5 Location of Agriculture-related Businesses 83 Figure 9.1 Comparison of Demand/Supply in South East Lincolnshire by Growth Scenario 87 Tables3 Table 1 Gross Land Requirement by Scenario (ha) iv Table 1.1 B-class Employment Land Definitions 2 Table 2.1 SWOT Analysis of the South East Lincolnshire Economy 12 Table 3.1 B Class floorspace in South East Lincolnshire, 2008 14 Table 3.2 Change in Employment Stock 2000-2008 (000 m2) 15 Table 3.3 Available Employment Land, 2011-12 (ha) 19 Table 3.4 Industrial & Office Rents in South East Lincolnshire 24 Table 4.1 Distribution of Employment Sites by Settlement 30 Table 4.2 Ranking of employment sites 38 3068795v2 South East Lincolnshire Employment Premises & Land Review Table 5.1 Forecast Employment Change in South East Lincolnshire 2012-2031 44 Table 5.2 Job Growth based Employment Space Requirements in South East Lincolnshire, 2012-2031 (Baseline) 45 Table 5.3 Job Growth based Employment Space Requirements in South East Lincolnshire, 2012-2031 (Higher Job Growth) 46 Table 5.4 Annual Net Completion Rates in South East Lincolnshire, 2004-12 47 Table 5.5 Employment Space Requirement based on Past Trends Continuing, 2012-31 (Baseline) 47 Table 5.6 Employment Space Requirement based on Reduced Take-up Rates, 2012-31 48 Table 5.7 Forecast labour supply in South East Lincolnshire 49 Table 5.8 B Class Floorspace Required from Labour Supply Growth 49 Table 5.9 Net Floorspace Requirement to 2031 for Different Growth Scenarios 50 Table 5.10 Safety Margin Allowances 51 Table 5.11 Gross Floorspace Requirement by Scenario (m2) 51 Table 5.12 Gross Land Requirement by Scenario (ha) 52 Table 6.1 Available employment land in South East Lincolnshire 56 Table 6.2 Demand/Supply of B Class employment space in South East Lincolnshire 57 Table 6.3 Demand/Supply for office and industrial space to 2031 (ha) 58 Table 6.4 Residential Completions by Parish/Settlement 2004-12 61 Table 6.5 Employment Space Completions by Settlement/Parish 2004 - 12 62 Table 6.6 Employment by Settlement/Parish, 2010 62 Table 6.7 Settlement/Parish Appraisal Matrix 63 Table 8.1 Employment in Agricultural Related sectors 81 Table 9.1 Gross Land Requirement by Scenario (ha) 85 South East Lincolnshire Employment Premises & Land Review Executive Summary This Employment Premises and Land Review for South East Lincolnshire has been prepared by Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners (NLP) on behalf of Boston Borough Council and South Holland District Council. The study will form part of the evidence base for the South East Lincolnshire Local Plan up to 2031 and inform the future allocation of land and policies for employment uses. The study provides baseline information on existing employment sites and premises, local demand and supply information and indicates any need for changes to current land allocations across the combined area. It also assesses the potential impacts of the proposed Rail Freight Interchange (RFI) at Spalding on existing employment areas and allocations in the area. Economic Context South East Lincolnshire comprises the local authority areas of Boston and South Holland, mainly rural areas whose main centres are the towns of Boston and Spalding. The area is located on the south eastern edge of the East Midlands County of Lincolnshire, adjoining the Wash. This area has been performing reasonably in economic terms in recent years. It has done slightly better than the East Midlands region in terms of job growth and unemployment. Its economy is more reliant on the manufacturing sector, which has been declining nationally for some time in job terms, but has also shown a strong rise in the typically high growth business services sector. The food industry employs many people in this area, including those employed directly in agriculture, in food manufacture and distribution. Key economic strengths and weaknesses, which will influence demand for employment space in the future, are summarised below. Strengths/Opportunities Weaknesses/Threats • Above average job growth and low • Distance from strategic road network unemployment • Lack of modern employment premises • Strong growth in business services • Below average skills/workplace wages • Strong food industry and growing energy • sector Low business formation rates • High reliance on manufacturing & food • Reasonable transport links to London/ports processing sectors • Low cost base (premises and wages) • Limited attraction to inward investment • Reasonable local manufacturing base less • Limited range of strong business sectors affected by global pressures • High proportion of self-employed indicates entrepreneurial activity • Potential spin-offs from Spalding RFI 3068795v2 i South East Lincolnshire Employment Premises & Land Review Employment Space Trends Key features and recent trends in the supply of employment space in the area can be summarised as: a the great majority (95%) of employment space across the area is industrial (warehouse and factory), with a relatively small level of office provision; b during the period 2000-08, the total stock of employment space rose by 8%; this included a slight decline in warehousing space (4%) and increases in factory (12%) and office space (27%); c annual development rates of new employment space over the last eight years or so have been reasonably high at a net 13,850 m2 or so of mainly industrial space although rates have been lower since 2008; d past losses of employment land (mainly B2 industrial uses) have been significant across both local authorities, mainly to residential, retail and D1 (non-residential institutional) uses; e 238 ha of available employment land currently exists across the area of which the great majority (165 ha) is within South Holland; The Local Commercial Property Market A view of the commercial property market and levels of demand for employment space was obtained from discussions with commercial agents, economic development officers and developers active in the area. Based on this: a South East Lincolnshire is a relatively self-contained commercial property market, largely industrial and particularly associated with food processing/distribution industries. There are limited links with other regional markets such as Peterborough, the A1(M) corridor and North Norfolk; b demand for industrial space is generally strong although less than in the past due to depressed national economic conditions. Most demand is from local firms wishing to expand or upgrade premises and stay within the area, and focused on the Spalding and Boston areas. Future levels of demand are expected to be similar to the past and focused particularly on Spalding; c there is a limited supply and some shortages of available industrial premises, mainly medium sized units, while much of the industrial stock is ageing and speculative new development constrained by low rents; much of the supply is also concentrated in just a few locations; there is reasonable provision for start up businesses across the