Security Challenges Volume 13 Number 1 (2017) Security Challenges ISSN 1833 – 1459 EDITORS: Dr Greg Raymond Dr Andrew Carr Ian Henry Managing Editors [email protected] Robert Wylie Geoff Hunt Consulting Editor Defence Industry Policy Production Editor [email protected] [email protected] EDITORIAL BOARD: Robert Ayson Sam Bateman Rod Lyon Victoria University University of Wollongong ASPI Wellington, New Zealand Wollongong, Australia Canberra, Australia Leszek Buszynski Eliot Cohen Ralph Cossa Strategic and Defence John Hopkins University, Pacific Forum CSIS Studies Centre, Australian Washington, DC, USA Honolulu, Hawaii, USA National University Bates Gill Gerald Hensley Ramesh Thakur Professor of Strategic Studies Former Secretary of Defence Asia-Pacific College of Strategic & Defence Studies New Zealand Diplomacy, Australian Centre, Australian National National University University Andrew Mack Andrew O’Neill Rizal Sukma Simon Fraser University Director, Griffith Asia Institue, Centre for Strategic and Vancouver, Canada Griffith University, International Studies Brisbane, Australia Jakarta, Indonesia William Tow Akio Watanabe Department of International Research Institute for Peace Relations, Australian National and Security University Tokyo, Japan Project Management and Cover: Qote Canberra (02) 6162 1258 Published and distributed by: The KoKoda Foundation 2/10 Kennedy St (PO Box 4060), Kingston ACT 2604 T: (02) 6295 1555 F: (02) 6169 3019 E: [email protected] W: www.securitychallenges.org.au © The KoKoda Foundation. 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GETTING THE BALANCE RIGHT ARTICLES Bert Chapman US Marine Corps Battalion Deployment to Australia: Potential Strategic Implications .......................................................................... 1 John Blaxland Strategic Balancing Act: Australia’s approach to Managing China, the USA and Regional Security Priorities ........................................................... 19 Andrew Zammit The Role of Virtual Planners in the 2015 Anzac Day Terror Plot ....................... 41 Aaron P. JacKson Innovation within the Paradigm: The evolution of the Australian Defence Force’s Joint Operational Art .............................................. 59 BOOK REVIEWS Australia’s Northern Shield by Bruce Hunt ......................................................... 81 Reviewed by James Batley A Great Place to Have a War by Joshua KurlantzicK ......................................... 85 Reviewed by Greg Raymond Independent Ally by Shannon Tow ..................................................................... 89 Reviewed by Andrew Carr Editors’ Introduction Debates about the future regional security order often focus on the big moments of tension or ‘choice’. But this often imposes an artificial clarity on the messy world of managing the security of the Asia-Pacific. The articles in this edition all try and take the detail and practice of policymaking as their focus, showing how getting the balance right is as often about small corrections, learning and updates, as it is about era-defining trends and grand themes. Bert Chapman explores the US Marine Corps deployment to Australia, detailing how it emerged and the geopolitical ramifications for Australia, the United States, China and Southeast Asia. John Blaxland takes a stocktake of the China debate in Australia over the last few years to examine how key relationships are evolving. It argues Australia should hold its nerve on the present course, while suggesting a range of bilateral and multilateral improvements to support security in the region. Andrew Zammit examines the rise of ‘virtual planners’, who assist others via the internet to plan and undertake terrorist acts. He argues this is a growing area of practice that will need to be better understood and countered to help foil the threat of Islamic State and other global terrorist organisations. Aaron P. Jackson details the Australian Defence Force’s internal debate and evolving thinking about its operational art. Jackson argues that recent developments are a useful step forward, but more is necessary to preserve the ADF’s edge. Finally, this issue marks the first in a new series of book reviews for the journal. Featured publications are Australia’s Northern Shield: Papua New Guinea and the Defence of Australia since 1990, A Great Place to Have a War: America in Laos and the Birth of a Military CIA by Joshua Kurlantzick and Independent Ally: Australia in an AGe of Power Transition by Shannon Tow’. This issue is also the final one for Andrew Carr and Iain Henry. The editors of Security ChallenGes would like to thank them for their contributions over the past few years and wish them well in their future endeavours. If you feel you could make a contribution to Security ChallenGes as an editor, or would like to become a book reviewer, please get in contact – [email protected]. Greg Raymond, Andrew Byrne, Iain Henry Managing Editors, May 2017. US Marine Corps Battalion Deployment to Australia: Potential Strategic Implications Bert Chapman During 2011, the United States and Australia agreed to the deployment of a US Marine Corps force to Darwin, Australia, to be rotated on a seasonal basis. This expeditionary force aspires to strengthen the interoperability between the US military and Australian Defence Force. It also is a tangible signal of the United States’ commitment to a long-term military presence in the Western Pacific in light of its “Pivot to Asia” and a symbolic notice that Washington intends to contest potential attempts by China to gain hegemony over the South China Sea (SCS). This article examines how deployment of this force came about, reaction to it in Australia and the United States, and potential future geopolitical ramifications it could have for Australia, China, Southeast Asian countries, and the United States. During a November 2011 visit to Australia then Prime Minister Julia Gillard (LAB-Lalor) and President Barack Obama announced that the United States would begin deploying 200-250 Marines in Darwin on a rotational basis starting the following year with the number of Marines eventually reaching 2,500. These forces will use existing Australian bases, be deployed in six- month rotations, conduct exercises and training with the Australian Defence Force (ADF), and be part of a Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF). This visit also saw Washington and Canberra agree to greater cooperation between the US Air Force and Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) through increased rotations of US aircraft through Northern Australia to enhance bilateral cooperation and combined training and exercises which can be seen as reflecting the Indo-Pacific region’s increasing strategic importance to the United States.1 Addressing Australia’s Parliament on 17 November 2011, Obama stressed historic security ties between Australia and the United States, while also noting that the United States is and remains a Pacific Ocean nation. He also noted that the troop rotation would increase the US commitment to Asia- Pacific security and that Washington would not let its budget problems injure its commitment to freedom of navigation, projecting power, and deterring threats to peace. These historic security ties, covering military and 1 The White House, ‘Prime Minister Gillard and President Obama Announce Force Posture Initiatives’, 16 November 2011, <www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/16/prime- minister-gillard-and-president-obama-announce-force-posture-init-0> [Accessed 22 July 2016]. Australian Representatives and Senators represent specific constituencies and states. These are mentioned the first time their names are mentioned in this work. Security Challenges, Vol. 13, No. 1 (2017), pp. 1-17. - 1 - Bert Chapman intelligence cooperation, have produced strategic successes for both countries and some controversy in certain sectors of Australian public opinion who have been concerned over possible Australian loss of sovereignty and international freedom of manouevre and concern that a future international crisis scenario may force Australia to choose between the United States and China.2 The MAGTF is designed for rapid force protection in combat situations and is capable of taking and holding strategic territory in anticipation of surging additional forces. Darwin’s selection as the location for the MAGTF involves its proximity to the Straits of Malacca (which is the world’s busiest shipping corridor carrying 80% of China’s crude oil imports), it being outside most Chinese missile threat ranges, having low-traffic skies for aerial training, and sitting adjacent to a large and sparsely populated region open to live fire simulations. This arrangement benefits Australia by providing it with additional strategic assurance from the United States given China’s increasing international assertiveness, facilitating improved access to US technology, enhancing ADF capabilities and