Africa Development, Vol. XXXVII, No. 2, 2012, pp. 63 – 95 © Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa, 2012 (ISSN 0850-3907) Challenges for the Opposition and Democratisa- tion in Tanzania: A View from the Opposition Jonas Ewald* & Lennart Wohlgemuth** Abstract In the period after 1990, a massive return to liberalised forms of politics has taken place and has been largely centred around the dismantling of one party- regimes, the termination of a large number of military-led or dominated governments, the embrace of a multiparty political framework, the introduction of an independent media, the restoration of some basic freedoms to the people of the countries concerned and the convening of multi-party elections. This development was so widespread and overwhelming that it was seen by many observers as the beginning of Africa’s second liberation (Olukoshi 1998; Gyimah-Boadi 2004; Mkandawire 2006). Potential gains to the peoples from the liberalisation of their national political spaces were undermined since the 1980s by the conditions set by outside suppliers of necessary resources, combined with internal challenges in terms of weak institutions, civil society and media as well as lack of a tradition of multi- party democracy and general poverty. Matters appear to have been worsened by the fact that in many African countries the promise which the opposition once represented as the bearer of the hopes and aspirations of the people has substantially faded away. Several factors have contributed to weaken and, in some cases, discredit the opposition in much of Africa’s ongoing experience with multiparty politics. This is a serious development that begs for further investigation; as the development of a healthy and vigorous opposition is a major part of a democratic framework. In this study, we will see how the situation in Tanzania has evolved over the past 17 years of multi-party development; based on rather unique interviews with Professor Ibrahim Lipumba, leader of one of Tanzania’s major opposition parties. * Peace & Development Studies, Linné University, Sweden. Email: [email protected] ** School of Global Studies, University of Gothenburg, Sweden. Email: [email protected] 4. Ewald New.pmd 63 31/10/2012, 11:43 64 Africa Development, Vol. XXXVII, No. 2, 2012 Résumé A partir de 1990, un retour massif à des formes libéralisées de la politique à eu lieu. Ceci a été en grande partie centré autour du démantèlement des régimes de parti unique, de l’élimination d’un grand nombre de gouvernements dirigés ou dominés par des militaires, de l’adoption de cadres de politique multi-partisane, de l’introduction d’une presse indépendante, de la restitution de certaines libertés fondamentales aux populations des pays concernés, et de l’organisation d’élections, multipartites. Ce développement était si répandu et impressionnant qu’il fut perçu par de nombreux observateurs comme le début de la deuxième libération de l’Afrique (Olukoshi 1998; Gyimah-Boadi 2004; Mkandawire 2006). Les gains potentiels que les populations devaient tirer de la libéralisation de leurs espaces politiques nationaux furent sapés depuis les années 1980 par les conditions fixées par des fournisseurs externes des ressources essentielles, mais aussi par les défis intérieurs à l’instar de la faiblesse des institutions, de la société civile et de la presse, ainsi qu’une absence d’une culture de démocratie multi-partisane et d’une pauvreté généralisée. Encore pire, la promesse que l’opposition a jadis représentée dans de nombreux pays africains comme porteuse des espoirs et des aspirations des peuples s’est fortement estompée. Il existe plusieurs facteurs qui ont concouru dans une grande mesure à fragiliser et, dans certains cas, discréditer l’opposition dans l’expérience de politique multi- partisane en cours de l’Afrique. Ceci est une évolution de grande portée qui doit être examinée plus en profondeur, d’autant plus que le développement d’une opposition saine et vigoureuse constitue une partie majeure d’un cadre démocratique. Nous verrons dans cet article, comment la situation en Tanzanie à évolué au cours des 17 dernières années d’expérience multi-partisane à travers un entretien plutôt unique mené avec Professeur Ibrahim Lipumba, leader d’un des plus importants partis d’opposition en Tanzanie. Introduction In the period after 1990, a massive return to liberalised forms of politics has taken place largely centred around the dismantling of one party-regimes, the termination of a large number of military-led or dominated governments, the embrace of a multiparty political framework, the introduction of an independent media, the restoration of some basic freedoms to the people of the countries concerned and the convening of multi-party elections. This development was so widespread and overwhelming that it was seen by many observers as the beginning of Africa’s second liberation (Ake 1996; Bratton and van de Walle 1997; Bratton 1998; Olukoshi 1998; Ake 2000; Bratton 2004). However this development took place at a time of harsh economic conditions for most African countries leading to rescue operations by the international communities, the so-called structural adjustment programmes (SAP). These operations came only into being after certain rigorous conditions for economic and political reform were fulfilled often leading to situations of non-democracies (Melber 2003; Gyimah-Boadi 2004; Villalón and VonDoepp 2005; Mkandawire 2006). 4. Ewald New.pmd 64 31/10/2012, 11:43 Ewald & Wohlgemuth: Challenges for the Opposition and Democratisation 65 Potential gains to the peoples from the liberalisation of their national political spaces were thus undermined by the conditions set by outside suppliers of necessary resources, in combination with all the internal challenges in terms of weak institutions, civil society and media as well as lack of a tradition of multi-party democracy and general poverty. Matters appear to have been worsened by the fact that in many African countries the promise which the opposition once represented as the bearer of the hopes and aspirations of the people has substantially faded away (Ottaway 2003; Salih 2003; Villalón and VonDoepp 2005; Mbaku and Ihonvbere 2006; Salih and Nordlund 2007). In some African countries the democratisation process has even been reversed in recent years, e.g., in Ivory Coast, Uganda to name a few. In others, like Tanzania, semi-authoritarian rule under the umbrella of formal multiparty system persists. Today, few dispute the need for a well-functioning multi-party system to promote democracy, even if the presence of a formal multi-party system in itself does not guarantee a deep, broad and substantial democracy (Abrahamsen 2000; Randall and Svåsand 2002; Ottaway 2003; Ayers 2006; Törnquist 2006; Basedau, Erdmann and Mehler 2007; Tar 2009; Zuern 2009). There are several factors which have acted together to weaken and, in some cases, discredit the opposition in much of Africa’s ongoing experience with multiparty politics. In a study of the politics of opposition based on a seven-country case-study edited by Adebayo Olukoshi, the following explanations are given for this deterioration: • Incumbent governments did only very reluctantly concede to the multi- party framework and stopped at nothing to obstruct, weaken, harass and divide the opposition; • As part of the strategy employed to weaken the opposition, public sector patronage was withdrawn from anyone that was sympathetic to or identified with the opposition, something that was particularly important for the private business sector representatives. This acted to weaken the financial base of the opposition parties and limit their organisational capacity at the same time as the incumbents freely availed themselves of state resources to finance their bids for remaining in power; • The opposition did not enjoy a level-playing field with the incumbents against whom they contested. Official, publicly-funded media organisations as well as various state organisations, including especially the security services, were deployed against opposition parties and their activists. Incumbents did also take the opportunity to rig elections in spite of the presence of international and local observers; 4. Ewald New.pmd 65 31/10/2012, 11:43 66 Africa Development, Vol. XXXVII, No. 2, 2012 • The electoral system operated in most African countries, namely the British first-past-the-post, winner-take-all model worked to the detriment of the opposition. The number of seats won was not proportional to the share of the vote; • In articulating their demands for multi-party politics, many opposition parties were too quick to allow themselves to be hurried by incumbent regimes into elections without first insisting on the implementation of the far-reaching constitutional changes that were necessary for governing post-electoral political activity; • In several African countries, opposition political activity came to depend heavily on donor/external support for its sustenance (Olukoshi 1998:29-33). In most theories on democracy, parties, and in particular an effective opposition, are indispensable for democratic consolidation. Ware defines a political party as an institution with two specific characteristics: (i) it seeks influence in a state, often by attempting to occupy positions in the government; and (ii) usually consists of more than a single interest in the society and so, to some degree, attempts to aggregate interest (Ware 1996). In the theories of multi-party democracy,