A land that lives builds for its future 1 1 The Netherlands as Rhine-delta • About 400 km of Rhine river • International catchment • About 350 km coastline • About 9 million inhabitants below flood level • Invested value 1800 109 A euro, 65% of GNP H R • Safety level: 1:10.000 – 1:1250 3 • Qdesign: 16.000 m /s • 3500 km of flood defences, hundreds of locks, sluices, pumping stations 100 km 2 5 m. below flood level… ..by drainage and subsidence, and embankments 3 Flood prone and densily populated 4 Well protected, although.. 5 Continued urban developments.. • Until 2030 400.000 new houses in flood prone areas (NIROV, 2008) • 2020: 90 billion euro’s new infrastructure 6 Increasing potential damage 7 Fresh water supply • Sea level rise Æ salinization of ground water • Reduced river discharge Æ salt intrusion river mouths • Reduced precipation and increased temperatures Æ increased demand 8 And a changing climate More /extreme More/intense More summer storms? rainfall drought Increased river Spatial discharge developments Sealevel rise Increased Decreased (… cm/100y) erosion Salt river intrusion Subsidence discharge Drowning estuaries 9 Urgency • Flood prone heart of the country • Flood defence conditions: backlog • Flood protection standards: outdated, since 60’s: – Growth economy:factor 6 – Growth population: 50 % • Land use development • Climate: change (Æ fresh water supply) 10 2. Committee on Sustainable Coastal Development • prof. dr. C.P. Veerman • mrs. ir. I.M. Bakker • dr. J.J. van Duijn • ir. A.P. Heidema • mrs. prof. dr. ir. L.O. Fresco • prof. dr. P. Kabat • mrs. T. Metz • ing. Jac.G. van Oord MBA • prof. dr. ir. M.J.F. Stive • ir. B.W.A.H. Parmet 11 Assignment Advice on protecting the coast and the entire low lying part of the Netherlands against the consequences of climate change on a time scale of 2100 –2200 Wider scope than only safety, multifunctional approach 12 What future to anticipate on? Sea level rise: • 2050: + 0.4 m • 2100: + 0.65 - 1.30 m • 2200: + 2 - 4 m 13 River discharge Summer: 1700 m3/s Æ 700 m3/s in 2100 Winter: 16.000 m3/s Æ 18.000 m3/s in 2100 14 What else? • Population • Spatial developments • Technology • Energy • Governance • ?? 15 How to deal with uncertain future? • “tipping points” in watersystems – Unaffordable (costs) – Unacceptable (society) – Impossible (technical) • Develop measures, • Evaluation (cost-effectiveness, flexibility, multifunctionality • Æ most robust solution 16 “tipping point” Maeslantkering 1/10 Æ + 75 cm: 1 + 150 cm: 10 + 300 cm: 100 Æ Increasing coincidence with river floods 17 Basic elements • We stay in the (floodprone) part of the Netherlands, • Safety against flooding based on risk management and wider scoped than damage • Solidarity among inhabitants and generations • Work with natural processes (“building with nature”), watersystem approach • Flexible strategy (“No regret”, framework, no blueprint) • Multifunctional design of measures 18 “Safety first” Level of flood protection to be based on: • Probability of an individual to die due to flooding (Individual Risk , IR); • Probability of large numbers of casualties (Group Risk, GR); • Potential damage, including damage to landscape, nature and cultural values, disruption and reputation. Æ Substantial decrease of probability of large numbers of casualties Æ comparable with other hazards. Æ Improve safety against flooding with factor 10 at least. 19 Delta-dikes Failure-proof because of height, width or internal construction. Tailor-made design and implementation (photo: example from Japan). 20 Deltadikes • No uncontrolable breaches and resulting floods 21 “Building with Nature” • Flexible regarding changing conditions and societal values, and increased understanding • Cost-effective • Opportunities for integrated and multifunctional approach 22 3. Headlines • North Sea coast • Wadden area • South-western Delta • Rivers • Rijnmond • IJsselmeer area 23 Measures 2008-2050 24 North Sea coast • Follow sealevel rise • Building with nature Æ beach nourishments • Optional: reclamation of new coastal land 25 How to maintain (develop?) 3 Slr (mm/y) Qs (m /y) Mln €/y 1 7 + .. 2 20 *) 60-80 6 40 160 12 85 350 Optional: reclamation of new coastal land 40 mln m3/y Æ 1 km in 100 y. (160 mln €/y x 100 = 16 x 109 euro) 26 Reclamation of new coastal land 27 Wadden area • Beach nourishments along North Sea coast Æ favour growing Waddensea with sea level rise • Monitor developments • Guarantee safety of mainland and islands 28 South-western Delta • Eastern Scheldt: restore tidal dynamics around 2100 • Enforce dikes along Western Scheldt • Store excess flood waters in lakes during blocked drainage 29 Rivers • Execute ‘Room for the River’ programme. • Execute ‘Maaswerken’ programme and ‘integrated inventory Maas’ • Land aquisition on strategic locations • International catchmentwise cooperation 30 Rijnmond • Protection by a “ring of floodgates” • New perspectives for nature restoration, outside the dikes • Development of urban waterfronts 31 IJsselmeer area • IJsselmeer remains strategic fresh water reservoir • Water level IJsselmeer rises with sea level, up to 1.5 m above presentÆ free discharge • Water level Markermeer remains unchanged 32 Costs < 2050: 1,2 tot 1,6 billion euro /yr 2050 – 2100: 0,9 tot 1,5 billion euro /yr Beach nourishment for coastal land reclamation: 0.1 – 0.3 billion euro/yr 33 4. Prerequisites for future-proof implementation • Ministerial steering committee, chaired by PM • Delta Director, supervising adequate execution • Regional administrator, responsible for implementation and execution • Deltafund, supplied by natural gas revenues and long- term loans • Delta Act, anchoring Delta-director, programme and fund 34 Working with water Cabinet: • OK, • in 2009 Delta Act proposal, investigate: • Level of protection • Water level rise Lake Ijssel • Delta-fund June 2009: • Fund of 1 bln euro/yr > 2020 • Programme in preparation • Draft Act 35 “Working together with water” www.deltacommissie.com 36.