IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS BALOCHISTAN, PAKISTAN MARCH - SEPTEMBER 2021 HIGH FOOD PRICES, LOCUST INFESTATION, FLASH FLOODS, Issued April 2021 DROUGHT AND REDUCED INCOME DUE TO COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS ARE DRIVING FOOD INSECURITY. CURRENT MARCH - JUNE 2021 PROJECTED JULY - SEPTEMBER 2021 Phase 5 0 Phase 5 0 People in Catastrophe People in Catastrophe 0.76M Phase 4 185,000 0.73M Phase 4 154,000 People in Emergency People in Emergency 27% of the rural pop. 25% of the rural pop. Phase 3 571,000 Phase 3 574,000 analysed in 10 rural analysed in 10 rural People in Crisis People in Crisis districts of Balochistan districts of Balochistan Phase 2 1,178,000 Phase 2 1,086,000 People facing high levels People Stressed People facing high levels People Stressed of acute food insecurity of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) Phase 1 885,000 (IPC Phase 3 or above) Phase 1 1,004,000 People in food People in food IN NEED OF URGENT security IN NEED OF URGENT security ACTION ACTION Current Acute Food Insecurity (March-June 2021) Overview 1 - Minimal 1 - Minimal Balochistan is one of the provinces with the highest prevalence 2 - Stressed of food insecurity, malnutrition and poverty in Pakistan. In 2020, 32 - CStrrisisessed 3 - Crisis the population faced multiple shocks including high food prices, 4 - Emergency locust outbreaks, rains/flooding and snowfall, all exacerbated 54 - FEmergencyamine by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Around 0.76 million 5 - Famine Areas with inadequate evidence people (27% of the rural population analysed) are estimated to Areas with inadequate evidence be facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or Areas not analysed Areas not analysed above) in the current period (March-June 2021), corresponding Map Symbols to the end of the lean season and the beginning of the harvest Map SymbolsUrban settlement Urbanclassification settlement season. These include around 0.57 million people (20% of the classificationIDPs/other settlements rural population) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 0.19 million people IDPs/otherclassification settlements classification (7% of the rural population) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) across Area receives significant 1 - Minimal Areas with inadequate evidence Area receives significant the 10 districts analysed. All districts have at least 5% of their Areahumanitarian receives foodsignificant assistance humanitarian food assistance (accounted2 - Stressed for in Phase classification)Areas not analysed (accounted for in Phase classification) population in Phase 4, and between 20% to 35% in Phase 3 or humanitarian food assistance (accounted3 - Cr>isis 25% for in of Phase households classification)Map Symbols meet 25-50% > 25% of households meet 25-50% 4. The analysis of the projection period (July-September 2021) >of 25%caloric of householdsneeds throughUrban meet assistance settlement 25-50% of caloric needs through assistance 4 - Emergency classification of caloric needs through assistance corresponding to the post-harvest season indicates that the > 25% of householdsIDPs/other meet > settlements50% > 25% of households meet > 50% number of people in Crisis and Emergency phases is expected 1 - Minimal 5Areas - Famine >ofwith 25%caloric inadequate of householdsneeds evidence throughclassification meet assistance >Area 50% receives significant of caloric needs through assistance of caloric needs through assistancehumanitarian food assistance to reduce slightly to 0.73 million (25% of the rural population). 2 - Stressed EvidenceAreas not Level analysed (accounted for in Phase classification) Urgent action is therefore required to protect livelihoods 3 - Crisis MapEvidence* SymbolsAcceptable Level > 25% of households meet 25-50% *** UrbanAcceptableMedium settlement of caloric needs through assistance and reduce food consumption gaps of people in Crisis and 4 - Emergency ***** classificationMediumHigh IDPs/otherHighScarce evidence settlements due to limited or > 25% of households meet > 50% 5 - Famine *** Emergency phases of acute food insecurity. classificationScarceno humanitarian evidence accessdue to limited or of caloric needs through assistance Projected Acute Food Insecurity (July-Septemberno humanitarian 2021) access Key Drivers 1 - Minimal 1 - Minimal 2 - Stressed High Food Prices 32 - CStrrisisessed Nationally, food prices went up by 9.1 percent for rural 3 - Crisis consumers on a year-over-year basis in February 2021. 4 - Emergency High food prices of commodities and high inflation led 54 - FEmergencyamine 5 - Famine to low purchasing power of households, particularly Areas with inadequate evidence for low income groups e.g., small farmers, wage labors, Areas with inadequate evidence households relying on petty trades etc. Areas not analysed Areas not analysed COVID-19 Map Symbols Map Symbols COVID-19 had an economic impact on income and Urban settlement Urbanclassification settlement purchasing power, due to limited income opportunities classificationIDPs/other settlements in agriculture and the non-agriculture sector. IDPs/otherclassification settlements classification Drought Area receives significant 1 - Minimal Areas with inadequate evidence Area receives significant Most of the districts falling under arid-zones with high Areahumanitarian receives foodsignificant assistance humanitarian food assistance (accounted2 - Stressed for in Phase classification)Areas not analysed (accounted for in Phase classification) dependency on rainfall did not receive rainfall between humanitarian food assistance (accounted> 25% for in of Phase households classification)Map Symbols meet 25-50% April and November. Due to deficiency of pre-winter and 3 - Crisis > 25% of households meet 25-50% >of 25%caloric of householdsneeds throughUrban meet assistance settlement 25-50% of caloric needs through assistance winter rainfall, a moderate drought-like condition has 4 - Emergency classification of> caloric25% of needs households through meet assistance > 50% emerged in southern and western parts of Balochistan. IDPs/other settlements > 25% of households meet > 50% 1 - Minimal 5Areas - Famine >ofwith 25%caloric inadequate of householdsneeds evidence throughclassification meet assistance >Area 50% receives significant of caloric needs through assistance Locust Infestation of caloric needs through assistancehumanitarian food assistance 2 - Stressed EvidenceAreas not Level analysed (accounted for in Phase classification) Most of the districts are heavily relyiant on agriculture Map Symbols 3 - Crisis Evidence* Acceptable Level > 25% of households meet 25-50% where locust infestation was experienced, that adversely *** UrbanAcceptableMedium settlement of caloric needs through assistance affected food crop and fodder production. 4 - Emergency ***** classificationMediumHigh IDPs/otherHighScarce evidence settlements due to limited or > 25% of households meet > 50% 5 - Famine *** classificationScarceno humanitarian evidence accessdue to limited or of caloric needs through assistance no humanitarian access BALOCHISTAN, PAKISTAN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 2 1 - Minimal CURRENT SITUATION MAP AND POPULATION TABLE1 - M (MARCHinimal - JUNE 2021) 2 - Stressed 2 - Stressed 3 - Crisis 3 - Crisis 4 - Emergency 4 - Emergency 5 - Famine 5 - Famine Areas with inadequate evidence Key forAreas the with inadequateMap evidence Areas not analysed IPC AcuteAreas not Food analysed Insecurity Map Symbols Phase Classification Map SymbolsUrban settlement (mappedUrbanclassification Phase settlement represents highest severity affectingclassification at least 20% of the population) 1 IDPs/other- Minimal settlements IDPs/otherclassification settlements 21 classification- SMtinimalressed Area receives significant 32 - CStrrisisessed humanitarianArea receives foodsignificant assistance humanitarian(accounted43 - EmergencyC forrisis in foodPhase assistance classification) (accounted for in Phase classification) 54> - 25%FEmergencyamine of households meet 25-50% of> 25%caloric of householdsneeds through meet assistance 25-50% 5Areasof - Fcaloricamine with needsinadequate through evidence assistance > 25% of households meet > 50% Areasof> 25%caloric notwith of analysed inadequatehouseholdsneeds through evidence meet assistance > 50% of caloric needs through assistance Evidence Level Map SymbolsAreas not analysed EvidenceAcceptable Level * Map SymbolsAcceptableMediumUrban settlement *** classification ***** MediumHigh ScarceUrban evidencesettlement due to limited or *** HighclassificationIDPs/other settlements Scarcenoclassification humanitarian evidence accessdue to limited or noIDPs/other humanitarian settlements access Area receivesclassification significant humanitarian food assistance (accountedArea receives for in Phasesignificant classification) humanitarian food assistance (accounted> 25% for in of Phase households classification) meet 25-50% of caloric needs through assistance > 25% of households meet 25-50% of> caloric25% of needs households through meet assistance > 50% of caloric needs through assistance District Total Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase > 25% 4 of householdsPhase meet 5 > 50% Area Phase 3+ population Evidenceof Levelcaloric needs through assistancePhase #people % #people % #people % #people % #people % #people % analysed Evidence* Acceptable Level ** Medium Chagai 238,535 95,414 40 71,561 30 59,634 25 ****11,927HighAcceptable 5 0 0 3 71,561 30 ** ScarceMedium evidence due to limited or Dera Bugti 228,629 57,157 25 91,452 40 45,726 20 ***34,294noHigh humanitarian15 access 0 0 3 80,020 35 Scarce