ISSN 2443-8014 (online) 2019 Economic Reform Programmes of Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo* The Commission’s Overview & Country Assessments INSTITUTIONAL PAPER 107 | JULY 2019 EUROPEAN ECONOMY Economic and Financial Affairs Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion European Economy Institutional Papers are important reports analysing the economic situation and economic developments prepared by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, which serve to underpin economic policy-making by the European Commission, the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament. Views expressed in unofficial documents do not necessarily represent the views of the European Commission. 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European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion 2019 Economic Reform Programmes of Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo*: The Commission's Overview and Country Assessments *This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence. EUROPEAN ECONOMY Institutional Paper 107 CONTENTS Introduction 1 Part I: Horizontal Overview of the 2019 Programmes 3 1. Horizontal Overview of the 2019 Programmes 4 1.1. Economic outlook and context 4 1.2. Main challenges 6 1.3. Implementation of the policy guidance adopted in 2018 10 Part II: Country analysis 13 1. Albania 14 1.1. Executive summary 14 1.2. Economic outlook and risks 16 1.3. Public finance 19 1.4. Structural challenges and reform priorities 24 1.5 Implementation of the policy guidance adopted at the Economic and Financial Dialogue in 2018 38 1.6. The 2019 policy guidance 42 Annex A: Assessment of the structural reform measures included in the ERP 43 Annex B: Progress with structural reform measures from ERP 2018-2020 49 Annex C: Compliance with programme requirements 50 2. Montenegro 51 2.1. Executive summary 51 2.2. Economic outlook and risks 53 2.3. Public finance 56 2.4. Structural challenges and reform priorities 59 2.5. Implementation of the policy guidance adopted at the Economic and Financial Dialogue in 2018 70 2.6. The 2019 policy guidance 74 Annex A: Assessment of the structural reform measures included in the ERP 75 Annex B: Progress with structural reform measures from ERP 2018-2020 80 Annex C: Compliance with programme requirements 81 3. North Macedonia 82 3.1. Executive summary 82 3.2. Economic outlook and risks 84 3.3. Public finance 86 3.4. Structural challenges and reform priorities 90 3.5. Implementation of the policy guidance adopted at the Economic and Financial Dialogue in 2018 104 3.6. The 2019 policy guidance 108 Annex A: Assessment of the structural reform measures included in the ERP 109 Annex B: Progress with structural reform measures from ERP 2018-2020 114 Annex C: Compliance with programme requirements 115 4. Serbia 116 4.1. Executive summary 116 4.2. Economic outlook and risks 118 4.3. Public finance 121 4.4. Structural challenges and reform priorities 124 v 4.5. Implementation of the policy guidance adopted at the Economic and Financial Dialogue in 2018 134 4.6. The 2019 policy guidance 137 Annex A: Assessment of the structural reform measures included in the ERP 138 Annex B: Progress with structural reform measures from ERP 2018-2020 143 Annex C: Compliance with programme requirements 144 5. Turkey 145 5.1. Executive summary 145 5.2. Economic outlook and risks 147 5.3. Public finance 150 5.4. Structural challenges and reform priorities 154 5.5. Implementation of the policy guidance adopted at the Economic and Financial Dialogue in 2018 165 5.6. The 2019 policy guidance 169 Annex A: Assessment of the structural reform measures included in the ERP 170 Annex B: Progress with structural reform measures from ERP 2018-2020 174 Annex C: Compliance with programme requirements 175 6. Bosnia and Herzegovina 176 6.1. Executive summary 176 6.2. Economic outlook and risks 178 6.3. Public finance 180 6.4. Structural challenges and reform priorities 184 6.5. Implementation of the policy guidance adopted at the Economic and Financial Dialogue in 2018 199 6.6. The 2019 policy guidance 203 Annex A: Assessment of the structural reform measures included in the ERP 204 Annex B: Progress with structural reform measures from ERP 2018-2020 206 Annex C: Compliance with programme requirements 207 7. Kosovo* 208 7.1. Executive summary 208 7.2. Economic outlook and risks 210 7.3. Public finance 212 7.4. Structural challenges and reform priorities 217 7.5. implementation of the policy guidance adopted at the economic and financial dialogue in 2018 229 7.6. The 2019 policy guidance 232 Annex A: Assessment of structural reform measures included in the ERP 233 Annex B: Progress with structural reform measures from ERP 2018-2020 238 Annex C: Compliance with programme requirements 239 LIST OF TABLES I.1.1. Economic Reform Programmes 2019 - Key indicators 11 I.1.2. Economic Reform Programmes 2019 - Key indicators 12 II.1.1. Albania - Comparison of macroeconomic developments and forecasts 17 II.1.2. Albania - Financial sector indicators 19 II.1.3. Albania - Composition of the budgetary adjustment (% of GDP) 20 II.2.1. Montenegro - Comparison of macroeconomic developments and forecasts 53 II.2.2. Montenegro - Financial sector indicators 55 II.2.3. Montenegro - Composition of the budgetary adjustment (% of GDP) 57 vi II.3.1. North Macedonia - Comparison of macroeconomic developments and forecasts 85 II.3.2. North Macedonia - Financial sector indicators 86 II.3.3. North Macedonia - Composition of the budgetary adjustment (% of GDP) 87 II.4.1. Serbia - Comparison of macroeconomic developments and forecasts 118 II.4.2. Serbia - Financial sector indicators 120 II.4.3. Serbia - Composition of the budgetary adjustment (% of GDP) 121 II.5.1. Turkey - Comparison of macroeconomic developments and forecasts 148 II.5.2. Turkey - Financial sector indicators 150 II.5.3. Turkey - Composition of the budgetary adjustment (% of GDP) 152 II.6.1. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Macroeconomic developments 178 II.6.2. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Financial sector indicators 180 II.6.3. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Composition of the budgetary adjustment (% of GDP) 181 II.7.1. Kosovo - Macroeconomic developments 210 II.7.2. Kosovo - Financial sector indicators 212 II.7.3. Kosovo - Composition of the budgetary adjustment (% of GDP) 215 LIST OF GRAPHS I.1.1. Contributions to real GDP growth, percentage points 4 I.1.2a. Change in primary balance between 2018-2021 (pps. of GDP) 5 I.1.2b. Contributions to the change in the debt-to-GDP ratio between 2018-2021 (pps.) 5 I.1.3. Evolution of current account balances (% of GDP) 5 I.1.4a. Government debt (% of GDP) 6 I.1.4b. Projected changes in budget balance and GG debt, 2018-21 6 I.1.5a. Fiscal adjustment 2018-21 (% of GDP) 7 I.1.5b. Composition of expenditure (% of GDP) 7 I.1.6. Gender employment gap (Percentage points) 9 I.1.7a. Overall implementation 2016-18 10 I.1.7b. PG 2018 individual scores 10 II.1.1a. Albania - Evolution of the Current account balance (% GDP) 18 II.1.1b. Albania - Real effective exchange rate (CPI based, vs 37 trading partners, 2010=100) 18 II.1.2. Albania - Implementation of the structural reform measures of the ERP 2018- 2020 49 II.2.1a. Montenegro - Evolution of the Current account balance (% GDP) 54 II.2.1b. Montenegro - Real effective exchange rate (CPI based, vs 37 trading partners, 2010=100) 54 II.2.2. Montenegro - Implementation of the structural reform measures of the ERP 2018-2020 80 II.3.1a. North Macedonia - Evolution of the Current account balance (% GDP) 85 II.3.1b. North Macedonia - Real effective exchange rate (2010=100) 85 II.3.2. North Macedonia - Implementation of the structural reform measures of ERP 2018-2020 114 II.4.1a. Serbia - Evolution of the Current account balance (% GDP) 119 II.4.1b. Serbia - Real effective exchange rate (CPI based, vs 37 trading partners, 2010=100) 119 II.4.2. Serbia - Implementation of the structural reform measures of the ERP 2018- 2020 143 vii II.5.1a. Turkey - Evolution of the Current account balance (% GDP) 149 II.5.1b. Turkey - Real effective exchange rate (CPI based, vs 37 trading partners, 2010=100) 149 II.6.1a. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Evolution of the Current account balance (% GDP) 179 II.6.1b. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Real effective exchange rate (2015=100) 179 II.7.1a. Kosovo - Evolution of the Current account balance (% GDP) 211 II.7.1b. Kosovo - Real effective exchange rate (2010=100) 211 II.7.2. Kosovo - Implementation of the structural reform measures of the ERP 2018- 2020 238 LIST OF BOXES II.1.1.