AEI Public Opinion S Studies PUBLIC OPINION ON THE SUPREME COURT (Updated June 2012) Compiled by Karlyn H. Bowman, Senior Fellow and Andrew Rugg, Research Assistant 1 Table of Contents TRENDS IN CONFIDENCE IN THE COURT .................................................................................. 4 APPROVAL ........................................................................................................................................... 9 FAVORABILITY ................................................................................................................................. 12 THE COURT’S POWER AND BALANCE TODAY ......................................................................... 13 THE IDEOLOGY OF THE NEXT JUSTICE, NEW COURT.......................................................... 17 What Americans Wanted of Obama’s Nominees ......................................................................... 17 What Americans Wanted of George W. Bush’s Nominees ......................................................... 18 THE PRESIDENT’S DECISION OR THE SENATE’S?................................................................. 21 THE NEXT NOMINEE: LEGAL BACKGROUND AND OTHER ISSUES ................................... 24 Views and Qualifications of the Nominee ................................................................................... 24 Roberts’s views on Abortion ........................................................................................................ 27 Bush’s Nominees and Abortion ................................................................................................... 28 ELENA KAGAN .................................................................................................................................. 29 Kagan and the Issue of Abortion .................................................................................................. 32 Kagan’s Ideological Leanings ...................................................................................................... 32 SONIA SOTOMAYOR ........................................................................................................................ 33 Ideological Leanings .................................................................................................................... 35 JOHN ROBERTS ................................................................................................................................ 37 Should Roberts Be Confirmed ..................................................................................................... 38 Will Roberts Be Confirmed .......................................................................................................... 39 Impressions of Roberts ................................................................................................................. 39 Ideological Leanings .................................................................................................................... 40 Roberts and The Issue of Abortion ............................................................................................... 41 Past Cases ..................................................................................................................................... 42 Miscellany .................................................................................................................................... 43 Continued Performance ................................................................................................................ 44 HARRIET MIERS ............................................................................................................................... 45 Impressions of Miers .................................................................................................................... 46 2 Miers and the Issue of Abortion ................................................................................................... 47 Will Miers Be Confirmed ............................................................................................................. 47 Ideological Leanings .................................................................................................................... 48 Miers’s Qualifications .................................................................................................................. 48 Miers’s Withdrawal ...................................................................................................................... 49 SAMUEL ALITO ................................................................................................................................. 50 Impressions of Alito ..................................................................................................................... 52 Ideological Leanings .................................................................................................................... 53 Alito’s Qualifications ................................................................................................................... 53 Alito and Gender .......................................................................................................................... 54 Alito and the Issue of Abortion .................................................................................................... 54 ORIGINAL INTENT ........................................................................................................................... 55 WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT INDIVIDUAL JUSTICES ................................................................... 57 William Rehnquist ............................................................................................................................ 57 Clarence Thomas .............................................................................................................................. 59 Antonin Scalia .................................................................................................................................. 60 David Souter ..................................................................................................................................... 60 John Roberts ................................................................................................................................. 61 Miscellany ........................................................................................................................................ 61 GENDER, RACE, AND ETHNICITY AND COURT NOMINEES ................................................ 62 LEGAL ANALYSIS OR PERSONAL VIEWS: WHAT RULES/GUIDES THE JUSTICES.......... 67 2010 Health Care Law ...................................................................................................................... 69 2000 Florida Recount ....................................................................................................................... 71 TRUST AND CONFIDENCE IN THE THREE BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT ..................... 73 Life Tenure, Mandatory Retirement ............................................................................................. 74 Television Coverage ..................................................................................................................... 75 3 The Supreme Court: Pollsters have been polling on issues related to the Supreme Court for more than 70 years. In 1937, both Gallup and Roper asked questions about President Franklin Roosevelt’s intentions to enlarge the court. In 1939, Gallup asked a single question about the appointment of Felix Frankfurter to the Court. Louis Harris asked a dozen questions about the elevation of Abe Fortas to the Chief Justice position in 1968 and about the nominations of Clement Haynsworth and G. Harold Carswell in 1971. The mid-1980s, with more pollsters in the field, appears to represent a turning point in the pollsters’ activity. Around 200 questions were asked in 1986 and 1987 about the nominations of Robert Bork and Douglas Ginsburg. Not only were there more questions than in the past, but many of them also had a provocative tone not present in earlier questions. The business didn’t always distinguish itself. Take this question asked by a major pollster about Douglas Ginsburg’s wife: “As you may know, (Supreme Court nominee Douglas) Ginsburg's wife, a medical doctor, performed a few legal abortions early in her career. Do you think the fact that Ginsburg’s wife performed a few legal abortions is enough of a reason by itself to keep him off the Supreme Court or not?” Only a few years later, in 1991, more than 400 questions were asked about Clarence Thomas’s nomination. Many had the flavor of push polls. This AEI Public Opinion Study tries to look broadly at confidence in the court, views of the court today, knowledge of current Justices, and at the kind of nominee people say they would like to see. Separate sections look at views of Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor, John Roberts, Jr., Harriet Miers, and Samuel Alito. It also reviews areas where public opinion is not well formed. Questions about original intent, for example, seem to pull people in one direction or another depending on how they are worded. This document includes some questions on abortion. Another AEI Public Opinion Study examines that issue in more detail: http://www.aei.org/publicopinion15. TRENDS IN CONFIDENCE IN THE COURT: Three survey organizations have long trends on confidence in the Supreme Court. In Gallup’s