RENEWABLES GLOBAL FUTURES REPORT 2013 REN21 – Renewable Energy Policy ISEP – Institute for Sustainable Energy Network for the 21st Century Policies REN21 is a global multi-stakeholder network that connects The Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (ISEP) is an inde- a wide range of key actors from governments, international pendent, non-profit research organization located in Tokyo, organizations, industry associations, science and academia as Japan. ISEP was founded in 2000, and since then has become well as civil society to facilitate knowledge exchange, policy a strong voice and source of innovative research in Japan and development, and joint action towards a rapid global transition worldwide. At its core, ISEP aims to provide the resources and to renewable energy. REN21 promotes renewable energy to services necessary for policymaking towards a sustainable meet the needs of both industrialized and developing countries energy future. Three focal areas are promotion of renewable that are driven by climate change, energy security, economic energy, improvement of energy efficiency, and restructuring development, and poverty alleviation. energy markets. REN21 is committed to providing policy-relevant information In Japan, ISEP engages in a wide range of programs and activi- and research-based analysis on renewable energy to decision ties, including policy recommendations on renewable energy and makers from both public and private sectors to catalyze policy energy efficiency to the Japanese government, guidance and change. REN21 also provides a platform for interconnection advice to local municipalities, and public events, conferences, between multi-stakeholder actors working in the renewable and symposia. In addition, ISEP facilitates community-level energy field, and works to bridge existing gaps to increase the renewable energy projects through a "Citizens' Fund" and deployment of renewable energy worldwide. through a cooperating program with the Japanese Ministry of Environment. REN21 was launched in June 2005 as a result of discussion held the previous year at the International Conference for Renewable Internationally, ISEP has worked with many organizations in Energies in Bonn, Germany, and has evolved since then into Europe, the United States, and Asia to promote knowledge an inclusive multi-stakeholder network with the mission to exchange and foster international collaboration related to advance renewable energy worldwide. REN21 is guided by a sustainable energy policies. ISEP has played an active and distinguished Steering Committee of experts engaged in policy, contributing role with REN21 since its inception in 2005, and business, advocacy, research, and economic development. For co-produced this Renewables Global Futures Report in a unique more information, see http://www.ren21.net. partnership with REN21 during 2011–2012. forEWorD When REN21 was founded in 2004, the future of renewable energy The REN21 Renewables Global Futures Report is a sister publication looked very different than it does today. No one imagined then that to the annual REN21 Renewables Global Status Report. By design, 70% of new power capacity added in Europe would be renewable, the Status Report covers only the present situation worldwide, not which is what happened in 2011. No one imagined that tens of projections about the future. So the two reports are very comple- millions of homes and businesses in several countries would add mentary. Futures Report author Eric Martinot served as lead author solar power on their rooftops so rapidly. No one imagined that China for the Status Report from 2005 to 2010, and is well grounded in would go from minor player to global leader in just six years, or that the present situation. He uses present status as a starting point for developing countries as a group would become home to more than visions of the future, creating an innovative blend of present and one-third of global wind power capacity. And many scenario projec- future. tions made in the years prior to 2004 showed levels of renewables REN21 intends to use this report to facilitate dialogues and discus- by 2020 that were already exceeded by 2010. sions about the future of renewable energy among a wide range The evolution of policies and markets for renewable energy has of stakeholders, and especially with a view to future policymaking. been absolutely remarkable over the past decade. The annual Although the report is careful not to provide policy recommenda- REN21 Renewables Global Status Report provides evidence of this tions, as that was not its purpose, it offers much insight to those rapid development. In 2011, over $260 billion was invested in new formulating such recommendations. A series of “Great Debates” renewable energy capacity, more than for fossil fuel and nuclear located throughout the report are a special element, and frame power combined. This is up from just $40 billion in 2004. In 2011, contemporary issues for discussion and understanding. some 120 countries around the world had policies to support renew- This report was made possible through a two-year collaboration able energy; most are now developing countries. In 2004, countries with the Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (ISEP) and the with support policies numbered about 50, then mostly developed enterprising efforts of ISEP executive director Tetsunari Iida. On countries. In 2011, the annual solar photovoltaic (PV) market was behalf of the REN21 Steering Committee, I would like to thank both 30-fold greater than in 2004. And in many other respects, policies ISEP and the German government for major financial support, along combined with technology cost reductions have driven markets in with the support of project co-sponsors. And a heartfelt thanks to unprecedented ways. report author Eric Martinot for his hard work over the past two years With the trends of the past 10 years behind us, and with the dynamic to provide such a remarkable synthesis of the world’s thinking on nature of renewable energy markets, technologies, and cost reduc- the future of renewables. tions continuing, we can look to the future with a very different The dedicated staff of the REN21 Secretariat, under the leadership perspective than in 2004. of Christine Lins, supported the project, especially policy advisor The purpose of this report is to show the range of credible possibili- Lily Riahi, who assisted in all aspects from initial concepts to final ties for the future of renewable energy. It does not present just one research. And finally, my sincere appreciation goes to all the inter- vision of the future, but rather a full and objective range of visions, viewees, contributors, and reviewers for giving of their time and based on the collective and contemporary thinking of many. expertise. This report combines a unique array of interviews with 170 experts Anyone who reads this report cannot help but have her/his own from around the world, along with over 50 recently published thinking affected by the multitude of viewpoints presented here. scenarios. These interviews and scenarios are blended into a And they will likely discover new, imaginative, and forward-looking “mosaic” of thinking about the future. Persons interviewed included ways to think about the future. I encourage everyone to share industry and finance experts, CEOs and business managers, those views and to engage with others in forging a sustainable and researchers and academics, policymakers and parliamentarians, renewable energy future. and public advocates and visionaries, among many others. Views of existing energy companies are also included. Mohamed El-Ashry Of course, the economic difficulties reaching around the globe at the REN21 Chairman end of 2012 will profoundly affect the future as well, in ways that January 2013 we cannot foresee. Yet in focusing on the long term, 2020 through 2050, this report encourages us to look at the possibilities that lie well beyond these difficulties. TABLE of CONTENts Acknowledgments ...........................................................................6 Preface .....................................................................................7 Executive Summary ..........................................................................8 Introduction ................................................................................10 01 How Much Renewables? ..................................................................14 01 (Total Energy Shares, Electricity Shares, Heating/Cooling Shares, and Transport Shares) 02 Integrated Futures: Challenges and Possibilities ...........................................22 02 (Utility Power Grids, Buildings, Industry, and Transport) 03 Investment Futures: Flows, Investors, and Business Models .................................32 03 (Amounts and Sources of Investment and Business Model Possibilities) 04 Futures at the Local/City Level: Initiative, Planning and Policy ..............................38 04 (Urban Planning and Built-Infrastructure, Urban Mobility, and 100% Renewable Communities) 05 Futures at the National and EU Levels: Market Growth and Policy Support ...................44 05 (Europe, United States, Japan, China, India, and Other Developing Countries) 06 Evolution of Technologies, Costs, and Global Market Growth ................................52 06 (Wind, Solar PV, Solar Thermal Power (CSP), Biomass, Hydro, Geothermal, Ocean, and Biofuels) Conclusion: Transformational Change? .......................................................61