Stockport Housing Needs Assessment 2015 Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Final Report November 2015 Main Contact: Dr Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk © 2015 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) Stockport 2015 HNA – Final Report Page | 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................. 8 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 8 Housing market context .................................................................................... 8 Affordable housing .......................................................................................... 10 Private Rented Sector .................................................................................... 11 General Market demand ................................................................................. 12 1. Introduction ................................................................................................... 15 Background and objectives ............................................................................ 15 National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) requirements ........................... 15 Definitions ....................................................................................................... 16 Geography ...................................................................................................... 17 Research methodology ................................................................................... 20 Presentation of data ....................................................................................... 20 Report structure .............................................................................................. 20 2. Policy and strategic review.......................................................................... 22 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 22 New Government Agenda .............................................................................. 22 National Housing Strategy .............................................................................. 27 National housing reviews ................................................................................ 37 Local strategic priorities .................................................................................. 38 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 44 3. Defining the Housing Market Area .............................................................. 46 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 46 House prices and rates of change in house prices ......................................... 50 Relative affordability ....................................................................................... 52 Household migration and search patterns ...................................................... 54 Travel to work trends ...................................................................................... 60 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 61 4. Understanding the current housing market position in Stockport .......... 62 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 62 Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure .......... 62 Owner-occupied sector ................................................................................... 71 Private rented sector ...................................................................................... 77 Affordable sector ............................................................................................ 85 Executive housing .......................................................................................... 87 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 89 5. Understanding the future housing market in Stockport ........................... 90 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 90 Key market drivers .......................................................................................... 90 November 2015 Stockport 2015 HNA – Final Report Page | 3 Past trends in housing delivery ....................................................................... 94 Suggested future development profile of market dwellings ............................ 95 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 99 6. Housing need .............................................................................................. 100 Introduction ................................................................................................... 100 Current households in need.......................................................................... 100 Affordable housing requirements .................................................................. 103 Estimates of household groups who have particular housing requirements . 105 Summary ...................................................................................................... 113 7. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues .................................................. 115 The Housing Market Area ............................................................................. 115 The current housing market .......................................................................... 115 Housing markets and mobility....................................................................... 116 Future housing market .................................................................................. 116 Housing need and demand .......................................................................... 117 NPPF requirements ...................................................................................... 119 Final comments ............................................................................................ 119 Introduction to Technical Appendices ................................................................ 120 Technical Appendix A: Research Methodology ................................................. 121 Overall approach .......................................................................................... 121 Baseline dwelling stock information and survey sample errors .................... 121 List of stakeholders interviewed as part of the HNA process ........................ 123 Technical Appendix B: Housing need calculations ........................................... 124 Summary of contents .................................................................................... 124 Introduction ................................................................................................... 125 Stage 1: Current need ................................................................................. 128 Stage 3: Affordable housing supply ............................................................. 132 Stage 4: Estimate of annual housing need .................................................. 136 Total net imbalance ...................................................................................... 137 Tenure and dwelling type profile of affordable dwellings .............................. 137 Technical Appendix C: Monitoring and updating ............................................... 140 A framework for updating the housing needs model and assessment of affordable housing requirements .................................................................. 140 Introduction ................................................................................................... 140 Updating of baseline housing needs and affordable housing requirements . 140 Concluding comments .................................................................................. 141 November 2015 Stockport 2015 HNA – Final Report Page | 4 List of Tables Table ES1 Net annual affordable housing imbalance by township, property size and designation 2014/15 to 2018/19 ............................................ 11 Table ES2 Open market dwelling stock and preferences ...................................... 12 Table 2.1 Distribution of Regional Housing Provision 2003-2021 ........................ 41 Table 3.1 House prices in Stockport by sub-area during 2014 ............................ 50 Table 3.2 Relative affordability of lower quartile (LQ) prices by District (residence based) ................................................................................ 53 Table 3.3 Relative affordability of median prices by District (residence base) ..... 54 Table 3.4 Origin of moving households ............................................................... 55 Table 3.5 Summary of household moves in preceding 5 years ........................... 56 Table 3.6 Residential mobility – movement between different tenures ................ 58 Table 3.7 Residential mobility – profile of properties moved into by type and size ...................................................................................................... 59 Table 3.8 First choice destination of households planning to move in