DRAFT DRAFT Statewide Michigan PCB TMDL January 2013 Prepared for: Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and United States Environmental Protection Agency, Region 5 Under Subcontract to: Battelle Duxbury, MA USEPA Contract No. EP-C-08-001 Task Order 006 i TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................. I LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................... III LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... III LIST OF ACRONYMS .................................................................................................................. IV 1.0 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 BACKGROUND ...................................................................................................................... 2 2.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT ................................................................................................ 2 2.1.1 TMDL Development Process ....................................................................... 2 2.1.2 Recent PCB Trends ..................................................................................... 3 2.2 DATA COLLECTION AND ASSESSMENT OF WATER QUALITY ................................ 5 2.2.1 Data Collection and Summary Analysis ....................................................... 5 2.2.2 Discussion of 303(d) Listings ....................................................................... 7 2.3 SCOPE OF WATER BODIES CONSIDERED UNDER THIS TMDL .............................. 9 3.0 APPLICABLE WATER QUALITY STANDARDS AND NUMERIC TARGETS ..................... 10 3.1 WATER QUALITY STANDARDS ................................................................................. 10 3.1.1 Designated Uses ........................................................................................ 10 3.1.2 Water Quality Criteria ................................................................................. 10 3.1.3 Designated Use Support ............................................................................ 11 3.1.4 Methodology Used to Assess Other Indigenous Aquatic Life and Wildlife Use Support ............................................................................................... 11 3.1.5 Methodology Used for Assessing Fish Consumption Use Support ............ 12 3.2 NUMERIC TMDL TARGET ........................................................................................... 13 3.3 APPLYING THE NUMERIC TMDL TARGET ................................................................ 13 4.0 MODELING APPROACH ...................................................................................................... 15 4.1 ESTIMATING ATMOSPHERIC PCB LOADING ........................................................... 15 4.2 RELATING ATMOSPHERIC LOADING TO FISH TISSUE CONCENTRATION (PRINCIPLE OF PROPORTIONALITY) ....................................................................... 18 4.2.1 Approach for Calculating Maximum Allowable Load .................................. 19 4.3 ATMOSPHERIC PCB CONCENTRATIONS ................................................................ 20 4.4 REGIONALIZATION ..................................................................................................... 24 4.5 THRESHOLD PROPORTIONALITY CONSTANT ........................................................ 25 4.5.1 Selection of an Appropriate Upper Bound ................................................. 25 i 4.5.2 Selection of a Target Fish Species ............................................................ 26 4.5.3 Calculation of Threshold Proportionality Constant ..................................... 26 4.6 REQUIRED REDUCTION PERCENTAGE ................................................................... 28 5.0 SOURCE ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................... 29 5.1 SOURCES OF PCBS ................................................................................................... 29 5.1.1 Compilation of Source Data ....................................................................... 29 5.2 DATA GAP ANALYSIS ................................................................................................. 30 5.2.1 Baseline Year Selection ............................................................................. 31 5.2.2 Nonpoint Source PCB Loads ..................................................................... 31 5.2.3 Point Sources to Water .............................................................................. 31 6.0 TMDL DEVELOPMENT ........................................................................................................ 33 6.1 LOAD ALLOCATION .................................................................................................... 34 6.2 WASTE LOAD ALLOCATION ....................................................................................... 37 6.3 MARGIN OF SAFETY................................................................................................... 38 6.4 CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL VARIATION ............................................. 38 7.0 REASONABLE ASSURANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION ..................................................... 40 7.1 OBSERVED REDUCTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC PCB CONCENTRATIONS .................................................................................................... 40 7.2 CLEAN-UP OF LEGACY SOURCES ........................................................................... 40 7.3 RESTRICTIONS OF LANDFILL DISPOSAL OF PCBS ................................................ 41 7.4 REGULATIONS GOVERNING TRANSPORT OF PCBS ............................................. 41 7.5 FEDERAL TOXIC SUBSTANCES CONTROL ACT ..................................................... 42 8.0 POST-TMDL MONITORING ................................................................................................. 43 8.1 MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY MONITORING ........... 43 8.1.1 Fish contaminant monitoring program ....................................................... 43 8.1.2 Water chemistry monitoring program ......................................................... 43 8.1.3 Water body NPDES monitoring program ................................................... 43 8.1.4 Legacy Site Clean Up and Follow Up Monitoring....................................... 44 8.2 ATMOSPHERIC PCB MONITORING ........................................................................... 44 8.3 NEW MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT DATA ........................................................ 44 9.0 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... 46 APPENDIX A. LIST OF PCB-IMPAIRED INLAND WATER BODIES SUBMITTED FOR APPROVAL UNDER THIS TMDL ................................................................................................. 1 ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. MDEQ’s Five-year Rotating Watershed Monitoring Cycle. ........................................ 3 Figure 2. Time Trend of PCB Gas Phase Atmospheric Concentrations at Great Lakes IADN Stations ............................................................................................................ 5 Figure 3. Impaired Lakes (a) Rivers, and Streams (b) Based on Fish Tissue PCB Data ......... 8 Figure 4. Impaired Rivers and Streams Based on Water Column PCB Data ........................... 8 Figure 5. Photo of a Lake Trout .............................................................................................. 14 Figure 6. Wet and Absorption Deposition Fluxes of PCBs at Urban Sites .............................. 16 Figure 7. IADN Stations (Brule River not pictured) ................................................................. 17 Figure 8. Ecological Drainage Units in Michigan..................................................................... 22 Figure 9. Annual Average Atmospheric Gas Phase PCB Concentration (ng/m3) by EDU ...... 24 Figure 10. Location of Legacy Polluted Sites in Michigan......................................................... 31 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Annual Rates of Change in Fish Tissue PCB Concentrations for Whole Fish Collected from Fixed Station Trend Monitoring Stations ............................................ 4 Table 2. Average PCB Fish Tissue Concentration for Edible Portion of Fish Collected through FCMP 2000-2009 ......................................................................................... 7 Table 3. Trigger Levels Used by the Michigan Department of Community Health to Establish Fish Consumption Advisories .................................................................. 12 Table 4. Estimated 2010 Statewide Annual Atmospheric PCB Concentration (ng/m3) Averaged by EDU .................................................................................................... 23 Table 5. Lake Trout Data Used to Calculate a Threshold Proportionality Constant .............. 28 Table 6. Permitted Air Releases of PCBs, 2008 .................................................................... 29 Table 7. Geographic Datasets Obtained................................................................................ 30 Table 8.