Weekly Review 24 03 2016 News Flow Eurogroup Head Jeroen Dijsselbloem in a formal statement stated that talks between the Greek government and institutions have been productive, with significant progress made on outstanding issues such as income tax and pension reforms, while work is ongoing and will continue over the Easter break. The statement also noted that mission chiefs will return to Athens on 2 April to resume the discussions with a view to conclude them as soon as possible. Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos told Parliament that the government aims to conclude the negotiations over the program review by April 12-13, so an agreement with the institutions can be reached on both the obligations of Greece (under the new program) and the debt issue by April 22. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble stated that alternatives must be found if Greece cannot deliver on pension reforms. At the same time, the Greek government continues to blame the stance of the IMF on the review negotiations, while US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew repeated that the IMF will not participate in the current Greek program if there is no debt relief. Macro/Political State Budget primary balance for Jan-Feb 2016 surplus EUR3.038bn vs. target of EUR1.065bn. Current account deficit (Jan-16) at EUR 742m, up EUR 461m y-o-y Reportedly GR deposits declined by EUR 1.0bn in February 2016 Turnover Index in Industry (Jan-16) -13.3% y-o-y. Travel receipts in January 2016 decreased by 4.7% y-o-y According to press Eurobank is in the final stages of entering into a joint venture (JV) with KKR for the initial management and servicing of corporate NPLs amounting to EUR 600m Piraeus Bank’s VES kick-off yesterday, involving some 1,500 employees with expected savings of EUR 52mn per annum (2-year payback period) HELEX announced 4Q:15 net earnings of EUR 3.5m (-7.3% y-o-y), proposed EUR 0.10/share dividend and capital return of EUR 0.22/sh s Terna Energy FY:15 net profits EUR 17.9m (+223.3% y-o-y) w Mytilineos FY:15 net profits of EUR 47.5m, at the high end expectations METKA FY:15 net profits of EUR 69m, coming in c9% above our estimates, proposed DPS of EUR 0.12/sh below expectations. MIG released its FY:2015 results with EBITDA of EUR 125.1m (+88.5% y-o-y) Aegean Airlines FY:15 net profits at EUR 68.4m (-15.0% y-o-y) at the low end of expectation due to higer Corporate ne Corporate corporate taxes PPC to release 4Q:15 results on Tuesday, March 29, before market opening. We expect net losses of EUR 151.8m. NBG Pangaea FY:15 net profits of EUR 42.7m, is considering the possibility to raise at least EUR 250m from the equity markets. Intralot announced an agreement to merge the Italian activities of Intralot into those of Gamenet Plaisio FY:2015 net profits of EUR 6.7m (-58.3% y-o-y), proposed DPS of EUR 0.008/sh. Market Comment Athens posted -1.80% losses over the past week, to close at 557.04, on increased ADV of €100mln (FTSE rebalancing Past last Friday), +41% vs ytd ADV of €70.98mln. GGBs flatish, with 10Y yield at 8.47% vs 8.52% a week ago. Week Some expectations that discussions with Troika will have a quick ending when Troika returns in Athens sparks some buying interest especially in financials. Week ahead Weekly Calendar The market will remain closed on Friday and Monday, March 25 and 28 respectively (Catholic Easter) Macro/Political agenda Wednesday March 30 Producer price Index in Industry Thursday March 31 Turnover Index in retail trade Friday April 1PMI Corporate agenda 4Q:15 results release Tuesday March 29 PPC Wednesday March 30, OPAP,LAMDA Thursday March 31Frigoglass, Ellaktor, Gek Terna, Athens Water, Anemos Charts and Tables *prices as of closing of Wednesday March23 , ASE Performance MCap (EUR bn) 39.9 5-day ADV (EUR m) 106.5 YTD ADV (EUR m) 71.41 Close Weekly (%) ASE 551.3 -3.6 Banks 39.6 -7.9 Utilities 1381.1 -4.4 Construction 1945.3 0.7 Refineries 2227.2 -5.4 Top performers Weekly change Worst performers Weekly change GR Sarantis SA 12.5% Frigoglass SAIC -18.7% Hygeia S.A. 6.6% Marfin Investment Group -10.2% Centric Holdings SA 5.6% Public Power Corporation S.A. -7.9% Reds S.A. 4.8% MLS Multimedia SA -7.7% Eltech Anemos SA 4.6% Grivalia Properties Real -7.5% Sovereign Credit Yield Weekly (%) (bps) Greece Government Debt - 10 Year 8.4 -14.1 Greece Government Debt - 3 Year 9.6 Greece Government Debt - 2 Year 8.8 Germany Debt - 10 Year 0.2 -7.9 Italy Government Debt - 10 Year 1.3 -2.8 Portugal Government Debt - 10 Year 2.8 -2.4 Spain Government Debt - 10 Year 1.6 -4.6 Sweden Government Debt - 10 Year 0.8 -11.4 United Kingdom Debt - 10 Year 1.5 -6.2 Denmark Debt - 10 Year 0.5 -12.8 United States - 10 Year 1.9 0.0 Japan Government Debt - 10 Year -0.1 -5.0 *prices as of closing of Wednesday March23 , Source: Capital IQ, Bloomberg, AXIA Research AXIA Ventures Group Ltd Corporate and macro Calendar Macros Event For the month of Release Date Producer Price Index February 30/03/2016 Turnover Index in Retail Trade January 31/03/2016 Results Release PPC FY:15 29/03/2015 Athens Water Supply FY:15 31/03/2016 Ellaktor FY:15 31/03/2016 Gek Terna FY:15 31/03/2016 Frigoglass FY:15 31/03/2016 Disclosures General information This research report was prepared by AXIA Ventures Group Limited, a company incorporated under the laws of Cyprus (referred to herein, together with its subsidiary companies and affiliates, collectively, as “AXIA”) which is authorised and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and AXIA Ventures Group Ltd Exchange Commission (authorisation number 086/07). 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Key Definitions AXIA Research 12-month rating* Buy The stock to generate total return** of and above 10% within the next 12-months The stock to generate total return**between -10% and 10% within the next 12- Neutral months Sell The stock to generate total return** of and below -10% within the next 12 months Under Review Stock’s target price or rating is subject to possible change Applicable Laws / Regulation and AXIA Ventures Group Limited policies might Restricted restrict certain types of communication and investment recommendations Not Rated There is no rating for the company by AXIA Ventures Group Limited * Exceptions to the bands may be granted by the Investment Review Committee of AXIA taking into account specific characteristics of the Subject Company **Total return: % price appreciation equals percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus projected dividend yield. 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