BACKGROUNDER No. 2690 | MAY 16, 2012 The 2012 NATO Summit in Chicago: NATO in Need of American Leadership Luke Coffey Abstract he North Atlantic Treaty The 2012 NATO Summit in Chicago TOrganization (NATO) will meet Talking Points is an opportunity for the U.S. to in Chicago on May 20–21, 2012. provide much-needed leadership for This will be NATO’s first summit ■■ The Chicago Summit will be NATO. The United States should push in the U.S. in more than 13 years NATO’s opportunity to finalize NATO members to keep their current and the first in the U.S. held out- the Afghan Transition Strategy commitments to Afghanistan and side Washington, DC.1 The theme and confirm NATO’S long-term enduring partnership with commit to supporting Afghanistan running through the conference is Afghanistan. after NATO forces withdraw. At expected to be renewing the trans- ■■ the Chicago Summit, the Obama atlantic relationship between North Any withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan must be based Administration also needs to make America and Europe. on improved security conditions the cases for transition, enlargement, The agenda will likely contain on the ground. When these con- and more defense investment and, three major items: ditions are met, the withdrawal ultimately, the case for NATO’s role should be a phaseout, and not a in the 21st century. Without American ■■ Afghanistan. The summit will walkout. leadership, NATO will continue to finalize the plan to transfer ■■ Without any new investment face an uncertain future. all security responsibilities to by America’s European Allies Afghan forces by the end of 2014. NATO’s Smart Defense initia- The summit will also establish tive will not amount to anything enduring political and financial more than a list of unfunded commitment to Afghanistan. aspirations. ■■ President Barack Obama should ■■ Smart Defense. NATO use American leadership to Secretary General Anders Fogh ensure that there is a meeting between NATO and the four Rasmussen’s proposal to better NATO aspirant countries of This paper, in its entirety, can be found at coordinate investment in defense Macedonia, Georgia, Bosnia and http://report.heritage.org/bg2690 capability in an era of reduced Herzegovina, and Montenegro at Produced by the Margaret Thatcher defense spending. the heads-of-government level. Center for Freedom ■■ NATO needs to review the way The Heritage Foundation ■■ NATO’s partnerships. In light 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE it works with its global partners, Washington, DC 20002 of the interdependent and glo- especially regional partners in the (202) 546-4400 | heritage.org balized nature of the world, the Middle East and North Africa. Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily summit will examine how NATO reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill can better work with non-NATO before Congress. partners. BACKGROUNDER | NO. 2690 MAY 16, 2012 The summit will also address the membership of its Istanbul ISAF-led combat operations in other issues, such as solidifying Cooperation Initiative and invite Afghanistan would cease by the agreements made at the Lisbon Libya to become a member of the end of 2014 with full transfer of Summit on NATO transformation, Mediterranean Dialogue. Finally, security responsibilities to the the future of NATO ballistic missile although the summit will regret- Afghan National Security Forces defense (BMD), NATO’s open door to tably not consider enlargement, (ANSF). enlargement, and the future of U.S. NATO leaders need to include clear tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. language in the summit’s declara- ■■ The publication of the Equally significant, the agenda tion reaffirming the eventual NATO Strategic Concept. NATO pub- does not include enlargement, even membership of the four aspirant lished its third strategic concept though Macedonia is more than countries: Georgia, Macedonia, since the end of the Cold War. The ready to formally join the alliance; Montenegro, and Bosnia and document charts a path for NATO Russia, which has chosen not to Herzegovina. over the next decade by exam- attend; or any meaningful discussion ining the capabilities that the of Syria. The Road from Lisbon alliance will need to prepare for This summit will pose unique In November 2010, NATO lead- future threats. challenges for some NATO lead- ers met in Lisbon, Portugal, for ers. With the U.S. presidential NATO’s 24th summit. The summit ■■ NATO transformation. election later this year, the Obama focused on publishing NATO’s new Transformation, probably the Administration will want a care- Strategic Concept, which defined the summit’s biggest accomplish- fully choreographed and “good news” alliance’s strategic priorities for the ment, went largely unnoticed. summit. The British Prime Minister, next decade. However, the summit After decades of bloated and David Cameron, will attend the sum- is most remembered for the formal costly NATO command struc- mit at a time when his poll numbers beginning of the Afghan transition tures, NATO agreed to a new are the lowest since the election in strategy and NATO’s agreement to command structure that sig- May 2010. Finally, newly elected conclude combat operations by the nificantly reduced the number French President François Hollande, end of 2014. of headquarters and manpow- who has promised to bring home all The Lisbon Summit produced sev- er, producing a savings of 35 3,300 French troops in Afghanistan eral notable outcomes: percent. NATO members also by the end of the year, will attend the agreed to reform and consoli- NATO summit only a fortnight after ■■ The transition plan for date NATO’s 14 agencies down his election. Afghanistan. In addition to to three: Communications and NATO leaders need to use the the usual summit declara- Information Agency, Support summit to put the alliance on a path tion, the summit agreed to two Agency, and Procurement toward true reform. NATO needs Afghanistan-related declarations: Agency.2 to finalize the transition plan for the Declaration by NATO and the Afghanistan and ensure that it is Islamic Republic of Afghanistan ■■ NATO–Russia relations. The based on conditions on the ground. on an Enduring Partnership NATO–Russia Council meet- The Obama Administration needs and the Declaration by the ing at Lisbon focused on mutual to state clearly that the low levels Heads of State and Government security concerns including of defense spending in Europe are of the Nations contributing Afghanistan, regional terrorism, unacceptable. To learn the lessons to the International Security and counternarcotics. Although from the recent Libya operation, Assistance Force (ISAF). The vague, language in the summit the alliance should also broaden summit formally agreed that declaration invited Russia to 1. News release, “We Know Chicagoans Will Warmly Welcome Our NATO Allies,” Office of Senator Mark Kirk (R–IL), March 30, 2012, http://www.kirk.senate. gov/?p=press_release&id=467 (accessed April 19, 2012). 2. News release, “NATO Achieves Important Milestone in Reform of Its Agencies,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, January 23, 2012, http://www.nato.int/ cps/en/natolive/news_83637.htm (accessed April 18, 2012). 2 BACKGROUNDER | NO. 2690 MAY 16, 2012 cooperate with NATO on mis- tactical nuclear weapons in Europe, largely improved in southwestern sile defense. The declaration also and Syria. Afghanistan,5 the main effort will included strong language calling Afghanistan. The current situ- shift to eastern Afghanistan, pri- on Russia “to reverse its recog- ation in Afghanistan remains stable marily Paktika, Paktiya, and Khost nition of the South Ossetia and but fragile. The surge of U.S. and provinces (the P2K region). This Abkhazia regions of Georgia as coalition troops and the robust area borders Pakistan’s Federally independent states.”3 population-centric counterinsur- Administered Tribal Areas, contains gency strategy in 2010 have achieved many of the traditional avenues of In addition, NATO agreed at the notable security gains on the ground. approach from the Pakistani bor- Lisbon Summit to: Levels of violence are also lower der regions to Kabul, and is the across the country, and the recent home base of the Haqqani Network. ■■ Develop a missile defense attacks in Kabul should not be Securing Highway One between capability to protect all NATO viewed in isolation. Although Kabul Kabul and Kandahar will also be an European populations, terri- accounts for almost 15 percent of ISAF priority. tory, and forces. Afghanistan’s population, the city At the 2010 Lisbon Summit, accounts for less than 1 percent of the NATO agreed on a plan to trans- ■■ Continue to review NATO’s country’s violence. Nationally, the fer security responsibility to overall defense and deterrence level of enemy-initiated attacks dur- the Afghans. The first tranche of posture. This further delayed ing the past three months is 21 per- provinces, districts, and munici- the decision on U.S. tactical cent lower than the same period in palities, which has 25 percent of nuclear weapons in Europe. 2011. Each month since May 2011 had Afghanistan’s population, was hand- fewer enemy-initiated attacks than ed over to the Afghans in July 2011. ■■ Maintain its open door policy the corresponding month one year The second tranche was announced for democratic European earlier. This is the longest sustained in November 2011. Currently, the countries wishing to join downward trend in enemy-initiated Afghans take the lead on security for NATO. Although NATO did not attacks recorded by ISAF.4 more than 50 percent of the coun- grant Georgia a Membership try’s population.6 The next round Action Plan (MAP), the alliance EACH MONTH SINCE MAY 2011 HAD will take place before this summer, reaffirmed its commitment to FEWER ENEMY-INITIATED ATTACKS and the Chicago Summit is expected eventual Georgian member- to decide the final stages.