CAPE ELIZABETH COMPREHENSIVE PLAN TABLE OF CONTENTS Vision and Executive Summary 2 1. Demographics 4 2. Economy 15 3. Housing 29 4. Transportation 47 Transportation Map 48 5. Public Facilities 62 Public Facilities and Sewer Service Areas Map 63 6. Fiscal Capacity 79 7. Recreation and Open Space 87 Open Space and Trails Map 88 8. Marine Resources 101 Marine Resources Map 102 9. Water Resources 106 Water Resources Map 107 10. Critical Natural Resources 113 Wetlands Map 114 Coastal Resources Map 118 Floodplain Map 119 11. Agricultural and Forestry Resources 121 Agricultural Resources Map 122 12. Historical and Archeological Resources 128 Historic Resources Map 130 13. Regional Coordination 135 14. Land Use Plan 138 Zoning and Geographic Areas Map 140 1 Subdivision History Map 143 Building Permit History Map 145 15. Implementation Time Frame 153 2 VISION The vision represented by this Comprehensive Plan is to preserve Cape Elizabeth as a highly desirable community in which to live by the following: expanding open spaces and accessible trails; encouraging the preservation of working farms; continuing the current slow pace and pattern of development; maintaining excellent educational and municipal services; cultivating the Town Center as a mixed use commercial area; supporting the high levels of citizen involvement in town activities; and balancing services and costs. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Comprehensive Plan Committee met 29 times, including 3 public forums. A statistically valid telephone survey was conducted to gauge resident opinions. Like any town engaging in a comprehensive plan process, the Cape Elizabeth Comprehensive Plan Committee incorporated into their deliberations a sense of the townSs assets, liabilities, challenges and opportunities. These general tenets guided the committee as it developed recommendations and are outlined as follows: Assets # Open space and physical beauty # School system and municipal services # Volunteerism and commitment to community # Desirable residential community # Sound financial footing Liabilities # Narrow tax base # Expensive housing costs 3 Challenges # Preserving open space # Balancing service demands and costs # Limiting increases in the property tax # Respecting the rights of private property owners # Diversifying the housing stock # Meeting the needs of an aging population Opportunities # Diversify the tax base # Broaden the range of housing options # Partner with public and private entities As the plan began to take shape, draft chapters and other documents were posted on the town website for review and summaries of the individual chapters were published in the local newspaper. Public comment was solicited and received at meetings, at public forums, in letters and in emails. The plan includes fourteen chapters, beginning with Demographics, which lays out a basis of information upon which subsequent chapters build, and culminating with Land Use. It includes goals in each chapter (except Demographics) and a total of 91 implementation steps. Overall, the implementation steps continue the current direction of the town, but also confidently step forward into the 21st century with new vigor in carefully considered policies. This Comprehensive Plan renews its commitment to land use policies that protect natural resources and promote affordable housing, and to good government policies that provide quality educational and public services while striving for cost savings, efficiencies, and regional sharing when practical. The plan also infuses greater commitment to preserving agricultural lands and to clustering lots in order to preserve open space. The plan should guide the development and evolution of the Town through the year 2020. Consequently, the plan will take time to implement. The plan includes suggested time frames for implementation steps and also identifies entities that could be responsible for making the implementation steps a reality. The Comprehensive Plan Committee hopes that the residents of Cape Elizabeth embrace the principles of this plan and work together to enhance the community character of this special place. 4 DEMOGRAPHICS Trends x During the 1990s, population in Cape Elizabeth grew more slowly than in either Cumberland County or neighboring towns, at a rate of 2.4% for the decade. Despite population projections from the Maine State Planning Office that predict population to grow by 943 people, or 10% from 2000 to 2020, the actual population growth will probably continue at the current rate of 2.4% or less a decade. x Although the aging of the population will continue to be the dominant demographic force of the future, Cape Elizabeth is losing a greater share of its young people than the county or state. This trend may be mitigated, however, as senior residents with no children living with them choose to downsize and sell their homes to families with school age children. x Although families (with and without school age children) comprise three quarters of Cape ElizabethSs households, the fastest growing group is people living alone, particularly the elderly. x Cape Elizabeth households earn the highest median income of any municipality in the state, with one in three earning more than $100,000 per year. x Cape Elizabeth is the most educated town in the state, with the highest high school completion rate and the highest concentration of bachelor degrees. Population Growth Anticipating population growth is an integral part of planning for the future. Such projections of future population depend on a solid understanding of historic growth trends in the Town of Cape Elizabeth, the region and the nation. 5 The most significant national population trend is what is known as the #baby boom.# The baby boom refers to those people who were born in the post World War II era of economic prosperity. In general, people born between 1946 and 1964 are considered baby boomers. The boom refers to the increased number of children who were born during these years compared to years immediately before and after. The period between 1965 and 1976 is known as the #baby bust# because the actual number of children being born in each year dropped below the baby boom period. This trough in the birth rates has occurred due to the lifestyle decisions of the baby boomers. These people remained single longer than previous generations and delayed childbirth longer than previous generations. Because of this delay in having children, a new #baby boomlet# has occurred. Sometimes referred to as the PechoQ effect of the baby boom, the number of births picked up considerably beginning in 1977. While not quite as strong in number as the baby boom, the boomlet reached the elementary schools of communities across the country in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The last of the baby bust made it through the school system in 1994. The baby boomlet began graduating from high school in 1995. Such waves of population in the U.S. are extremely important, since overall, the U.S. is not growing very rapidly. Total numbers of people do not change drastically. Instead, the age structure is the most dominant trend in U.S. population study. This factor is also important to understand at the local level. Whenever an area experiences rapid population growth, the growth is primarily due to families moving into an area as opposed to children being born. The primary driver of local population growth is economic opportunity. When a region experiences economic expansion, population growth generally follows. Local and Regional Population Changes Over the last forty years, the population of the Town of Cape Elizabeth has increased 65% from 5,505 people in 1960 to 9,068 in 2000. The greatest decennial rise occurred from 1960 to 1970, when Cape ElizabethSs population grew from 5,505 to 7,883 people, a total increase of 2,368 people, or 43%. In the last decade, the population of Cape Elizabeth increased just 2.4%, from 8,854 people in 1990 to 9,068 people in 2000. In the future, the Maine State Planning Office (SPO) projects the townSs growth rate to more than double. From 2000 to 2020, Cape ElizabethSs population is expected to increase by 943 people, or 10%. This rate of growth averages out to 5% per decade, which is more than double the rate of growth experienced by the town from 1990 to 2000. It is expected that, despite SPO population projections, the town population growth rate will continue at the current growth rate of approximately 2.4% or less a decade. 6 Population in Cape Elizabeth, 1960-2020 12,000 9,627 10,011 8,854 9,068 10,000 7,873 7,838 8,000 5,505 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: 1960-2000, U.S. Census Bureau; 2010-2015, Maine State Planning Office From 1990 to 2000, Cumberland CountySs population increased by 22,477 people, from 243,135 people to 265,612 people, a countywide increase of 9%. Cape Elizabeth, on the other hand, grew more slowly than either Cumberland County or its neighbors. Scarborough, meanwhile, grew by 36%, the fastest growth rate in the region. The primary cause of growth during this decade was in-migration - new residents moving into the community. Population Change, 1990-2000 South Portland Cape Elizabeth Maine Yarmouth Cumberland Co. Cumberland Falmouth Scarborough 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Although Cape Elizabeth is an attractive waterfront community within a reasonable commuting distance of the Portland and Biddeford labor markets, its slower population growth, like YarmouthSs, can be attributed to the lack of buildable land. With a density of 252.8 houses and 615.5 people per square mile, Cape Elizabeth is as dense as 7 Yarmouth. Neighboring South Portland, on the other hand, is three times as dense as Cape Elizabeth. Density (2000) Population (per Housing (per square square mile) mile) South Portland 1,944.70 862.9 Yarmouth 626.7 277.7 Cape Elizabeth 615.5 252.8 Scarborough 355.7 151.6 Falmouth 348.1 140.8 Cumberland County 317.9 146.7 Cumberland 274.6 112.9 Maine 41.3 21.1 Source: U.S.