August 2018 India Light Vehicle Sales Update Weak July Growth Due to High Base in 2017 India’s Light Vehicle (LV) wholesales inched up by a mere 1% year-on-year (YoY) to 339k units in July, over a high base in the same period a year ago. At the same time, the dispatch of vehicles to dealers was partially impacted by an eight-day truckers’ strike. The overall volume was dragged down in particular by Passenger Vehicles (PVs), which declined by 3% YoY to 274k units. It is important to point out that dealers had depleted their inventory in June 2017 to avoid paying higher taxes under the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime that became effective last July. This was then followed by restocking, which bolstered wholesales in July 2017. In contrast, demand for Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) with GVW of up to 6 tons surged by 23% YoY to 65k units in July of this year. The LCV segment is bouncing back from the negative impact of demonetization (from November 2016 to Q1 2017) and the GST implementation, while also benefiting from an improved rural economy. On a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) basis, sales improved marginally to 4.20 mn units in July, compared to 4.19 mn units in June. While the July SAAR was lower than the record-high selling rates of 4.37 mn units in May and 4.27 mn in April, it was, nevertheless, still a very impressive performance for India, particularly since the SAAR has exceeded 4 mn units for four consecutive months. LV sales between January and July increased by 13% YoY to 2.36 mn units. The PV volume rose by 11% YoY to 1.92 mn units, while LCV demand climbed by 27% YoY to 437k units. The growth so far this year was also partly a result of weak sales in the first half of 2017, due to the twin impact of demonetization and GST implementation. The market – especially for LCVs – has continued to exceed our expectations, however, thus convincing us to further upgrade our short- and medium-term forecasts for India. We therefore hiked the 2018 PV outlook by 14k units and raised the LCV forecast for 2018-2021 by an average of 30k units a year. LV sales are now forecast to rise by 12% YoY to a record high of 4.12 mn units, and the risk to the 2018 forecast is still on the upside. However, there are also reasons to be cautious. These include the factors mentioned in previous editions of this report, namely: Falling rupee: In India, the rupee was weakening against the US dollar even before the turmoil in Turkey. More recently, it has hit record-low levels, reflecting investors’ concerns over the country’s widening trade and current account deficits. The escalating US-China trade war and US interest rate hikes have also accelerated capital outflows from India. Rising inflation: A weak rupee (and higher oil prices) is already fueling inflationary pressures and leading to higher interest rates. Although inflation averaged about 4.6% YoY so far this year, it is forecast to rise and average 5% for 2018 as a whole. This could start to dampen currently booming LV sales. (Note that India is a major importer of oil.) Rising interest rates: In August, the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate for a second time in three months to 6.5%, citing inflationary pressure, following the government’s decision to raise farmers’ guaranteed minimum price for summer crops (by 15%, the largest increase in 15 years). w ww.lm c-auto.c om Oxford ● Detroit ● Frankfurt ● Bangkok ● Shanghai ● São Paulo ● Tokyo 1 India Light Vehicle Sales Update The darkening global outlook: India is less dependent on goods exports, compared to other Asian nations. While its largest export market is the EU, the US is close behind in second place. However, the country has a large Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) sector (i.e., services exports). As such, any slowdown in the global economy could affect India’s services exports, too. Remittances from Indian workers overseas are reportedly already slowing down (especially from the Middle East) and are likely to slow further, if the global economy decelerates. Weak private investment: Even though public investment has picked up speed, private investment remains weak. w ww.lm c-auto.c om Oxford ● Detroit ● Frankfurt ● Bangkok ● Shanghai ● São Paulo ● Tokyo 2 India Light Vehicle Sales Update Market Top Lines Best Selling Models Jul Growth YTD Growth 2018 Growth Jul Growth Share YTD Growth Share Sales 370,754 3% 2,622,073 15% PV PV 274,051 -3% 1,919,889 11% 3,347,198 9% Maruti-Suzuki Dzire 25,647 74% 9.4% 166,088 74% 8.7% LCV 64,719 23% 437,338 27% 774,491 26% Maruti-Suzuki Alto 23,371 -10% 8.5% 146,761 -1% 7.6% M&H CV 31,984 24% 264,846 37% Maruti-Suzuki Swift 19,993 46% 7.3% 131,091 23% 6.8% Production 464,106 0% 3,137,941 14% LCV PV 354,378 8% 2,373,469 9% 4,080,736 8% Tata Ace 12,229 59% 4.5% 90,890 70% 4.7% LCV 71,047 23% 467,367 30% 822,657 29% Maruti-Suzuki Omni 8,213 -6% 3.0% 51,007 1% 2.7% M&H CV 38,681 29% 297,105 44% Maruti-Suzuki Eeco 7,578 8% 2.8% 47,936 17% 2.5% Top Brands (Sales) Top Manufacturers (Production) # Brand Jul Growth YTD Growth # Manufacturer Jul Growth YTD Growth 1 Maruti-Suzuki 109,923 5% 725,502 12% 1 Maruti Suzuki India 129,805 3% 875,047 7% 2 Hyundai 43,481 1% 318,617 7% 2 Hyundai Group 63,727 10% 411,751 10% 3 Suzuki 26,713 -19% 209,956 29% 3 Suzuki Group 29,670 88% 169,504 106% 4 Mahindra 17,417 -6% 136,122 6% 4 Ford Group 22,444 0% 163,347 0% 5 Tata 17,079 14% 128,108 42% 5 Mahindra 18,464 -9% 149,082 9% 6 Honda 19,970 17% 102,641 -2% 6 Renault-Nissan 15,107 -16% 119,318 -25% 7 Toyota 13,677 -23% 89,669 13% 7 Tata Motors 14,181 8% 101,111 12% 8 Ford 7,816 -7% 60,263 12% 8 Toyota Kirloskar India 15,677 32% 94,915 9% 9 Renault 6,217 -31% 48,914 -26% 9 Honda Cars India 18,805 19% 94,057 3% 10 Volkswagen 2,466 -48% 21,975 -23% 10 Volkswagen Group 9,473 -28% 65,363 -27% 11 Datsun 2,249 -35% 21,761 -7% 11 Tata-Fiat 6,351 214% 53,992 643% 12 Jeep 1,315 28% 13,105 704% 12 General Motors Group 6,970 -9% 48,759 -12% Passenger Passenger Vehicle Passenger Passenger Vehicle 13 Škoda 1,260 -11% 9,445 5% 13 Škoda Auto 1,433 70% 10,099 59% 14 Mercedes-Benz 1,228 12% 9,289 12% 14 Daimler Group 1,077 14% 8,094 18% 15 BMW 863 24% 5,753 13% 15 BMW Group 777 30% 4,990 21% 16 Nissan 554 -37% 5,517 -30% 16 Force Motors 128 -53% 1,647 4% 17 Audi 662 0% 4,085 -9% 17 Premier Auto 159 -6% 1,149 -9% 18 Force 199 11% 1,942 39% 18 Isuzu Motors Limited 37 -48% 554 76% 19 Land Rover 170 -30% 1,599 16% 19 Volvo Group India 91 N/A 483 N/A 20 Volvo 259 34% 1,501 33% 20 Hindustan Motors 2 -96% 207 -44% 1 Tata 20,231 33% 147,641 50% 1 Mahindra 22,027 11% 162,248 27% 2 Mahindra 20,394 28% 134,473 17% 2 Tata Motors 23,382 40% 145,882 47% 3 Maruti-Suzuki 17,514 7% 109,614 17% 3 Maruti Suzuki India 18,985 26% 114,467 19% 4 Ashok Leyland 3,815 41% 26,982 43% 4 Ashok Leyland 3,997 33% 26,477 36% 5 Force 1,909 17% 12,820 3% 5 Force Motors 1,547 -27% 11,978 -1% 6 Isuzu 356 21% 2,539 50% 6 Isuzu Motors Limited 547 51% 3,019 54% 7 Eicher 399 62% 2,232 68% 7 Eicher Motors 437 126% 2,281 61% Commercial Vehicle Commercial Commercial Commercial Vehicle 8 Piaggio 101 -58% 1,037 -24% 8 Piaggio 125 -63% 1,015 -38% 9 10 5th September 2018 For further information contact Ms. Sukanya Tunhau, Phone +662 264 2050, [email protected] w ww.lm c-auto.c om Oxford ● Detroit ● Frankfurt ● Bangkok ● Shanghai ● São Paulo ● Tokyo 3 LMC Automotive LMC Automotive is a market leader in the provision of automotive intelligence and forecasts to an extensive client base of car and truck makers, component manufacturers and suppliers, financial, logistics and government institutions around the world and is highly respected for its extremely responsive customer support. 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