Israel and the Middle East News Update Monday, December 9 Headlines: • No Talks Set as Coalition Deadline Approaches • Third Israeli Election Expected in March 2020 if Knesset Dissolves • Likud Cancels Party List Primaries • Luxembourg Said Pushing for EU States to Recognize Palestine • U.S. House Passes Resolution Breaking with Trump on Israel policy • Biden: Netanyahu Is Drifting to the 'Extreme Right' to Stay in Power • Norway to Withhold Funding to PA Over Inciteful Curriculum • Foreigners File Many Lawsuits Against Israeli Binary Options Companies Commentary: • Ha’aretz: “Netanyahu Is Heading for a Plea Dealow” - By Avi Tiomkin and Alon Pinkas • The Hill: “West Bank Annexation Would Endanger Israel's Security” - By Ami Ayalon, Gadi Shamni, and Danny Yatom S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor News Excerpts December 5, 2019 Jerusalem Post No Talks Set as Coalition Deadline Approaches Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Blue and White leader Benny Gantz and their parties’ coalition negotiating teams will all be at the Knesset on Monday, but sources close to them all said there would be no negotiations to end the political quagmire. An agreement must be reached by Wednesday at midnight to prevent the Knesset from dispersing itself automatically. If no MK obtains the support of a majority of the Knesset to form a government by then, Israelis will go to the polls for the third time in under a year. “In the three days that are left, there is still hope that we can avoid an unnecessary election,” Gantz told the Makor Rishon conference in Jerusalem. “But it will not happen through political spin about changing the voting technique, which would only bring us back to this same mess.” See also, “Gantz: Elections can still be averted, but no forgiveness for corruption” (TOI) Ha’aretz Third Israeli Election Expected in March 2020 if Knesset Dissolves Israel's next election is expected to take place in March 2020 if the country's parliament dissolves this week after both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his rival Benny Gantz failed to form a coalition. In the event of a failure to obtain the 61 signatures required to back a lawmaker who would receive the mandate to form a coalition, the Knesset will dissolve by Wednesday and Israelis will head back to the polling booth, with the vote supposed to take place on March 10. The chairman of the Knesset Arrangements Committee, MK Avi Nissenkorn plans to convene the committee on Monday in order to approve an amendment with the new date before the Knesset's dissolvement on Wednesday. See also, “Likud, Blue and White spar over election date” (JPost) Ynet News Likud Cancels Party List Primaries The Likud Central Committee voted on Sunday in favor of canceling the premieres for the party's list at a party conference in Tel Aviv. The Committee also decided that elections for party leadership will only take place if elections are declared. Netanyahu's main rival for Likud leadership MK Gideon Sa'ar gave a speech at the conference, claiming that party officials are trying to besmirch him for challenging Netanyahu for the Likud premiership. "There are people who try to smear those who want to run for Leadership," said Sa'ar." See also, “Saar attacks Netanyahu: Settlement future secured not with words” (JPost) Times of Israel Luxembourg Said Pushing for EU States to Recognize Palestine Luxembourg is pushing the European states to recognize Palestine in response to the recent US declaration that it no longer views Israeli settlements in the West Bank as illegal under international law, Channel 13 news reported Sunday.The report said Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn sent a letter to new EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and to EU foreign ministers, saying the only way to save the two-state solution was to create “a more equitable situation” between Israel and the Palestinians. “It is time to start a debate within the European Union on the opportunity of a recognition of the State of Palestine by all its Member States,” Channel 13 quoted him as writing. See also “Luxembourg urges EU to recognize Palestinian state” (JPost) 2 Reuters U.S. House Passes Resolution Breaking with Trump on Israel policy The U.S. House of Representatives passed a symbolic resolution on Friday backing a two-state solution to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, following initiatives from President Donald Trump seen as heavily favoring the Jewish state. The Democratic-led House voted 226 to 188, largely along party lines, for a non-binding resolution saying that only a two-state solution can both ensure Israel’s survival as a Jewish state and fulfill the Palestinians’ “legitimate aspirations” for their own state. Since he became president in January 2017, the Republican Trump has been condemned by Palestinian and some Arab states’ leaders for reversing long-held U.S. policies to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in 2017, move the U.S. embassy to the city in 2018 and cut U.S. aid to Palestinians. See also, “House moves ahead on long-stalled resolution supporting two states for Israelis and Palestinians” (The Hill) Ha’aretz Biden: Netanyahu Is Drifting to the 'Extreme Right' to Stay in Power Former Vice President Joe Biden, who is currently seeking the Democratic nomination for president, said over the weekend that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has drifted to the "extreme right" in order to survive politically. While Biden called Netanyahu’s political direction “a serious mistake," he reiterated his opposition to cutting or limiting U.S. military aid to Israel. Biden spoke at an event in Iowa, and was asked about calls by other Democratic presidential hopefuls, such as Senator Bernie Sanders, to withhold or condition military aid to Israel. Biden said it was a “bizarre” idea and compared it to “telling France we disagree with you so we’re kicking you out of NATO.” See also “Biden slams Sanders’ pitch to leverage Israel aid 'bizarre' “ (Israel Hayom) Ynet News Norway to Withhold Funding to PA Over Inciteful Curriculum The Norwegian Parliament decided last week to cut funding for the education system of the Palestinian Authority, due to evidence of the existence of materials inciting violence, terrorism, and martyrdom in school curricula across the Palestinian territory. This unprecedented announcement follows a report made by the Jerusalem based Institute for Monitoring Peace and Cultural Tolerance in School Education (IMPACT-se), that brings to light the widespread radicalization rampant within the Palestinian education system. Coalition lawmakers issued a statement sharply criticizing the violent and inciteful material found within the textbooks. "Examples of content found in Palestinian school books include references to violence, martyrdom and terror," read the statement. "The coalition considers this to be devastating to the peace process and the development of democracy.” Times of Israel Foreigners File Many Lawsuits Against Israeli Binary Options Companies Amid the failure of Israeli police and prosecutors to effectively investigate and prosecute perpetrators of online fraud, Israeli courts are seeing a slew of civil lawsuits by alleged victims overseas against Israelis they allege have defrauded them through binary options and related schemes.Israeli court filings show that dozens of lawsuits have been filed against Israeli binary options companies by former clients in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the Czech Republic, India, Belize and Singapore, as well as numerous alleged victims of investment fraud from Israel itself. See also, “Israeli binary option site owner faces indictment” (Globes) 3 Ha’aretz- December 9, 2019 Netanyahu Is Heading for a Plea Deal By Avi Tiomkin and Alon Pinkas • Benjamin Netanyahu is on his way to a plea deal. This is why he so badly needs “a few months” to negotiate from the position of prime minister. It is the only liquid asset he has to sell, his only security, his lifesaver. He knows it. He wants it. He is aware of the fact he has no other choice. His family and those around him have realized that there is no other reasonable alternative. The reasons for his decision to stay in his current role as long as possible are not political. They certainly aren’t ethical or moral. They are legal, and mainly financial. • The stage of denial and defiance has ended. His incessant talk of “there won’t be anything because there was nothing” are over, as are his arrogant boasts of “wait and see.” We waited, we saw. • Three serious indictments were filed against Netanyahu. Moreover, the spillover from the submarine affair known as Case 3000 has not reached its full potential, and the damage could be great. From the moment Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit announced his decision to file indictments, the game stopped being a political and media game, and became a race for a bargain with the law. • Netanyahu will likely remain the eternal victim in his own view and will continue acting that way. He is Alfred Dreyfus on steroids. He will keep believing that a historical crime was perpetrated, an attempted coup against a prime minister, a crass overthrow of government, a putsch waged by the treacherous leftist elites, the corrupt state prosecutor, the media, the president, dubious state witnesses, the police commissioner, the attorney general, former Mossad and Shin Bet leaders, Barack Obama, George Soros, etc., etc., against him. None of this changes the fact that he faces a plea deal. He has no other option. Perhaps it won’t work — but no doubt he will strive for one. • The first inkling of his fragile condition came, not from the growing list of the Likud local leaders and major members switching their support to rival Gideon Sa’ar, but rather from the international arena, which he seemed to rule for years.