CHOOSING OUR FUTURE Visions of a Sustainable World Edited by Tanvi Nagpal Camilla Foltz THE PROJECT CHOOSING OUR FUTURE Visions of a Sustainable World Edited by Tanvi Nagpal and Camilla Foltz SEPTEMBER 1995 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Choosing our future : visions of a sustainable world / edited by Tanvi Nagpal and Camilla Foltz. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references (p. ) ISBN 1-56973-028-8 (alk. paper) 1. Sustainable development. I. Nagpal, Tanvi, 1967- . II. Foltz, Camilla, 1966- . HC79.E5C487 1995 333.7—dc20 95-16459 CIP Kathleen Courrier Publications Director Brooks Belford Marketing Manager Hyacinth Billings Production Manager Donya Melanson Associates Cover Design Dan Hanfling Cover Photo Each World Resources Institute Report represents a timely, scholarly treatment of a subject of public concern. WRI takes responsibility for choosing the study topics and guaranteeing its authors and researchers freedom of inquiry. It also solicits and responds to the guidance of advisory panels and expert reviewers. Unless otherwise stated, however, all the interpretation and findings set forth in WRI publications are those of the authors. Copyright © 1995 World Resources Institute. All rights reserved. Printed on recycled paper For 2,500 years we have hoped and believed that if mankind could reveal itself to itself, could widely come to know its own cherished motives, then somehow it would tilt the balance of things in its own favor. Ernest Becker CONTENTS Preface vii Acknowledgments ix I. Introduction 1 II. Essays 7 Abdiel Adames on Panama 7 Peggy Antrobus on the Caribbean 10 Christopher Ivo Atang on Cameroon 12 Ruth Bamela Engo-Tjega on Africa 15 Maristela Bernardo (with Fabio Feldmann) on Brazil 20 B. Bowonder on India 26 Pierre Dansereau on Canada 29 Graciela Diaz de Hasson on Latin America 33 Souleymane Diop on Senegal 37 Marta Echavarria Uribe on Colombia 39 Fabio Feldmann (with Maristela Bernardo) on Brazil (20) Giap Van Dang on East Asia 43 Narpat S. Jodha on the Himalayan Region 49 Uri Marinov (with Deborah Sandier) on Israel 59 Liberty Mhlanga on Southern Africa 65 Joseph O. Palacio on Central America 69 Florence T. Robinson on the United States of America 75 Deborah Sandier (with Uri Marinov) on Israel (59) S. Sathananthan on South Asia 79 Alex Steffen on Seattle, U.S.A 82 CHOOSING OUR FUTURE: VISIONS OF A SUSTAINABLE WORLD SriK. Supomo on Indonesia 86 Pauline Tangiora on the Pacific Basin 92 Eduardo Viola on Brazil 97 Wen Dazhong on China 102 III. Supplementary Essays 107 Introduction 107 Jacques Bugnicourt (with Youba Sokona) on Africa 109 Urna Chahartogche on Inner Mongolia 115 Margaret Maringa on Kenya 120 Youba Sokona (with Jacques Bugnicourt) on Africa (109) IV. Interviews 129 Introduction 129 Alfred Ayeah-Tefuh on Cameroon 131 Virginia S. Bacay on the Philippines 133 Joseph Bedouma on Togo 135 Alexander Buyentuev on Siberia 138 Maylene Dankers on South Africa 140 Chief Lamin Darboe on the Gambia 142 AlexDawia on Australia 143 Andre Effa on Cameroon 145 Priscilla Karumazondo on Zimbabwe 146 Filimone Kau on Fiji 147 Li Wa Li on China 149 Albert Makina on Zimbabwe 150 Toum Mohammed on Tanzania 151 Maria Munoz on Cuba 152 Stella Mutasa on Zimbabwe 153 Dennis Pantin on the Caribbean 154 Tobias Pavandiva on Zimbabwe 155 Sister Grace Yap on Jamaica 156 Erdeni N. Yelaev on Russia 157 V. Conclusion 159 Appendix: List of Essayists and Interviewees 173 VI PREFACE In 1993, the World Resources Institute, the Brookings Institution, and the Santa Fe Institute started the 2050 Project to examine ways to achieve a more sustainable global system. Earlier, the World Commission on Environment and Development (the Bruntland Commission) had defined the concept of sustainable development in its 1987 report, Our Common Future, as meeting the present gen- eration's needs without compromising the ability of future genera- tions to meet theirs. The idea measures the success of economic growth in human resource, environmental, and economic terms. Achieving sustainability thus requires us to reconsider the meaning of progress and, probably, to redirect our efforts. What are the implications of our current activities and trends? What is it we hope to achieve? And what do we consider to be worth sustaining? Most of the materials that the 2050 Project staff began assem- bling to answer these questions addressed sustainability issues from the perspective of western industrialized nations. Conspicu- ously absent were voices from developing countries. Yet we knew that the needs and desires of people in all parts of the world have to be taken into account in any sustainable global system. And we knew that—even if a more sustainable global system can be de- scribed—people will not help bring it about unless it is presented in terms of their own needs and desires. In short, we figured that in laying out essential changes in human organizations and behavior, it is just as important to gather information about people's visions of a desirable future as about the consequences of their behavior on the natural world. Choosing Our Future grows out of an attempt to VII CHOOSING OUR FUTURE.- VISIONS OF A SUSTAINABLE WORLD find out what people in developing countries hope the world will be like in the next century. Systematically surveying the views of people in all regions was far beyond the 2050 Project's time and financial resources. In the belief that later in the Project we could easily incorporate industri- alized countries' perspectives, we chose at this point to emphasize the visions of people from those parts of the world poorly repre- sented in, or absent from, the literature on sustainability. These eclectic essays and interviews on how the world might or should develop collectively have the power to give anyone fresh ideas and new ways of thinking about sustainability. They inform the regional scenarios and other tasks within the 2050 Project's pro- gram of work, and we hope that the reader will find them equally stimulating and useful. Rob Coppock Director The 2050 Project Vlll ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The editors would like to thank all those who helped pull this book together, beginning with the contributors of essays and interviews. We also extend our gratitude to everyone who suggested essayists: Tariq Banuri, Janet Brown, Duane Chapman, Rodrigo Contreras, Tom Fox, Safei Hamed, Goran Hyden, Yolanda Kakabadse, Robert Kates, Keith Kozloff, Owen Lynch, George Martine, Carmen Miro, Ann Thrupp, Peter Uvin, and Emir a Woods. Jennifer Green and Jeanny Wang traveled far and wide, seeking out interview candi- dates from places we otherwise would not have been able to reach. This book would not have been possible without the financial support of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. We also thank The Howard Gilman Foundation for their support of The 2050 Project. Thanks for time and useful comments in the review process go to Hyacinth Billings, Kathleen Courrier, Kathleen Daniel, Allen Hammond, Jeanne Kasperson, Jonathan Lash, Robbie Nichols, Walt Reid, Dale Rothman, Nigel Sizer, John Steinbruner, and William Visser. Finally, a word of appreciation to the entire WRI publications production crew and the staff of the 2050 Project, whose help and patience have been invaluable. A special thank you goes to Stacy Milburn for administrative help and endless hours spent by the fax machine and to Kim Anderson for an additional interview. T.N. C.F. IX I. INTRODUCTION It is a challenging time. A time in which many social, political, and economic assumptions are under assault...in which a grow- ing recognition of collective responsibility and individual dignity is driving tumultuous, sometimes violent, struggles for change and reconciliation...in which the defenders of old social orders are everywhere under fire. The time is right for envisioning a new future. The 2050 Project was established to fill a perceived need for vi- sionary and creative analyses about the future. Together, the lead institutions involved with the Project have examined alternative concepts of sustainability and explored desirable future condi- tions, the actions needed to reach them, and the potential for life- changing surprises. By filling crucial gaps in our understanding of the present, the Project will help policy-makers make better deci- sions about the future. Instead of merely extrapolating from cur- rent trends, the Project team is defining the characteristics of a sus- tainable world in the year 2050 and then determining what needs to be done to achieve them. With this work completed, it will de- velop regional policy recommendations and action plans for the next decade and share them with policy-makers and the public. The 2050 Project asks the question: how can we achieve a sus- tainable existence on this planet by the middle of the next century? In fifty or so years, critical population, energy, and climate-change trends could become manifest and large-scale socio-economic tran- sitions occur; yet, the year 2050 is within the lifespan of today's children, close enough to give the Project's findings direct and per- sonal meaning. CHOOSING OUR FUTURE: VISIONS OF A SUSTAINABLE WORLD Why Visions? It is difficult to chart a path to sustainability without knowing what the sustainable "end points" might be. The 2050 Project's assembly of data and its evaluation of important linkages and driving forces in agriculture, water, population, energy, ecosystems, industrial ac- tivity, and toxification shed light on some of the bio-physical fac- tors that must influence our chosen destination. But sustainability cannot be evaluated purely in these terms: the conditions that are not sustainable stem from social and cultural preferences as well as bio-physical limitations. Within the conditions that meet both con- straints, however, any number of sustainable futures are possible. Each possibility represents a particular compromise between con- straints and preferences.