ReportNo. 1351-BA Burma Appraisalof the Tin and TungstenExpansion Project Public Disclosure Authorized February8, 1977 Industrial ProjectsDepartment FOR OFFICIAL USEONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank Thisdocument hasa restricteddistribution and may be usedby recipients only in the performanceof their officialduties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosedwithout World Bankauthorization. CURRENCYEQUIVALENTS Except where otherwise indicated, all figures are quoted in Kyats (K) and US Dollars (US$). K 1.00 = US$0.15 K 6.65 = US$1.00 ABBRIVIATIONSAND ACRONYMS CIDA Canadian InternationalDevelopment Association DGSE Directorateof Geological Survey and Mineral Exploration Government Government of the SocialistRepublic of the Union of Burma KfW Kreditanstaltfur Wiederaufbau ITC InternationalTin Council LMB London Metal Bulletin LME London Metal Exchange LTPY Long tons per year MC2, the Corporation No. 2 Mining Corporation (formerlyMyanma Tin Tungsten Corporation - MTTC) MDC Mineral Development Corporation MEB Myanma Economic Bank IMEIC Myanma Export Import Corporation MMDC Myanma Mineral Development Corporation HOC Myanma Oil Corporation 1'PY Metric tons per year PTA Primary Tungsten Association UBB Union Bank of Burma UGCF Union Government ConsolidatedFund UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNDP United Nations Development Program USBM US Bureau of Mines WBMS World Bureau of Metal Statistics WEIGHTSAND MEASURES 1 Hectare = 2.47 acres 1 Kilometer (km) = 0.62 miles 1 Long Ton (LT) = 2,240 pounds 1 Long Ton Unit (LTU) = 1% of a long ton or 22.4 pounds 1 Meter (m) = 39.3 inches 1 Metric Ton (MT) = 2,205 pounds 1 Metric Ton Unit (MTU)= 1% of a metric ton, or 22.05 pounds 1 Picul (Pikul) = 133.33 pounds FISCAL YEAR April 1 - March 31 Industrial Projects Department February 1977 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY BURMA APPRAISAL OF THE TIN AND TUNGSTEN EXPANSION PROJECT TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS . ........................... i-iii I. INTRODUCTION ....................................................... 1 II. THE MINERAL SECTOR .. * * * * * * * ................................... ... 1 A. Present Position and Recent Trends ................. 1 B. Impact on the Economy .......oe.... o............... 2 C. Structure .. .. *......... o ............ ....... ....... 3 D. Legislation and Operational Guidelines for the Sector ...... ....................... 3 E. Mineral Potential and Exploration a... 4...........4 F. Planned Sector Investment and Needs ............... 4 III. THE MARKET .................. o.o. ..................... 6 A. The International Tin Market ....................... 6 1. International Demand and Supply ......0 ........ 6 2. International Tin Agreements .................. 7 3. Price Structure and Projections 8.............8 4. Marketing Arrangements ..... ................... 8 B. The International Tungsten Market ... .. ........... 9 1. International Demand and Supply ............... 9 2. Price Structure and Projections ............... 10 3. Marketing Arrangements ...... .............. IV. THE CORPORATION ........................................... 1 A. Operations ..................................................o .o. 11 1. Mining Facilities and Output ..................11 2. Production Costs ... ............................. 12 B. Past Performance and Financial Condition ........... 12 C. Organization and Management .................... *.... 15 D. Accounts and Audit ..... ............................ 16 E. Ore Reserves ... ........................... ..... ... 16 This report was prepared by Messrs. H.E. Wackman, R. Rodger, and S. Greig of the Industrial Projects Department and Mr. A. Freyman (Consultant). This document has a restricted distribution andmay be usedby recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. -2- Page No. V. THE PROJECT ................... **. ......**.......... 16 A. Technical Description . ..................... 17 1. Heinze Basin Dredging Project and Concentrator. 17 2. Central Concentrator at Tavoy ................. 18 3. Gravel Pump Mining Project .................. 19 4. Technical Assistance ................. *...... 19 5. Other Expansion Plans.. 20 6. Sector Study ......... 20 B. Environmental Aspects ......... .. ..... .......... 20 C. Capital Costs........ 20 D. Financing Plan . ... 22 VI. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION... .o. ...... 23 A. Project Organization and Management 23 B. Project Schedule ... ............. .............. 23 C. Procurement ............o ............ ........ 23 D. Allocation and Disbursement of IDA Credit .......... 24 VII. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ... ....... ...... ...... ... 24 A. Project Operating Costs and Revenues .24 B. Financial Rate of Return 24 C. Break-Even Point ........ 25 D. Overall Profitability .......... 25 E. Financial Position and Covenants ...... 26 F. Major Risks ....... ........................... 28 VIII. ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION ......... ........ ............... 28 A. Economic Rate of Return ............................ 28 B. Foreign Exchange and Other Benefits .... o .......... 29 IX. AGREEMENTS...... ......... 29 ANNEXES 1 Glossary of Technical Terms 2 The Burmese Mineral Sector 3-1 The Tin Market 3-2 The Tungsten Market - 3- 4-1 Description of Operations 4-2 HistoricalFinancial Statements 4-3 Organizationand Management 5-1 Description of the Project 5-2 Capital Costs 6-1 Project Organizationand Management 6-2 Terms of Reference for Consultants 6-3 Project Schedule 6-4 Allocationof IDA Credit 6-5 DisbursementSchedule 7-1 Detailed Operating Costs 7-2 Breakeven Point 7-3 FinancialRate of Return and SensitivityAnalysis 7-4 AssumptionsUsed in Financial Projections 7-5 Projected Income Statements 7-6 Projected Sales 7-7 Projected ProductionCosts 7-8 ProjectedOutput by Mine 7-9 Projected Balance Sheets 7-10 Projected Sources and Applications of Funds 7-11 Capital Cost Estimates 7-12 Working Capital Requirements 7-13 DepreciationSchedule 7-14 Debt Repayment Schedule 8-1 Economic Rate of Return and SensitivityAnalysis 8-2 Estimated Foreign Exchange Savings MAPS IBRD 12322 - Main Mining Centers and Deposits IBRD 12524 - Tenasserim Division BURMA APPRAISAL OF THE TIN ANDTUNGSTEN EXPANSION PROJECT SUMMARYAND CONCLUSIONS i. The Government of Burma and the No. 2 Mining Corporation (formerly the Myanma Tin Tungsten Corporation)have requested a US$16 million credit for a project to reintroducedredging to the tin mining industry of Burma. The project would include a dredge and associated beneficiationand infra- structural facilities,gravel pump mining equipment, and a central concen- trating plant designed to upgrade tin and tungsten ores from various mines. The project is located about 300 km south east of Rangoon in the Tenasserim Division of Burma. Output of tin concentrates (about 75% tin) would be ex- panded by about 800 long tons per year (LTPY) and the improved upgrading facilitieswould produce better quality, higher grade tin and tungsten con- centrates than are presently produced, thus making them more marketable and able to bring higher prices. Also included in the project is a study of the future developmentof the mineral sector, with a view to the identifica- tion of further projects. Financing requirementsfor the project are estimated at about US$28 million. ii. Burma's mineral sector has considerablepotential for expansion, but it has experienceda long period of decline due to war damaged facili- ties, nationalizationof private mining interests,a lack of technical ex- pertise and investment capital, and the smuggling of mineral products, an activity made attractive by the distorted exchange rate for the Burmese kyat. Nearly all of the sector's output is exported, and although foreign exchange revenue for minerals presently constitutesonly about 7% of total export earnings, it has significantpotential for expansion,particularly in tin, tungsten, copper, lead, zinc, gems, jade and antimony. iii. At present, no foreign investment is allowed in mining. There has, however, been increased sector activity in recent years, particular- ly with technicalassistance from Germany, Japan and the UNDP. Numerous studies have been done but few projects have as yet entered the execution stage. The best prospects include the proposed tin and tungsten expansion, and developmentof the existing Bawdwin lead/zinc/silvermine, which is the country's largest mining operation,but which has serious operating and financial difficulties. Large projects are difficult to put together due to the lack of project preparationexperience in the country, the prob- lem of obtaining sufficient funds given the shortage of domestic resources, and the reluctance of the Government to come to firm agreements on project priorities, financing sources, and the extent and nature of foreign partici- pation. Otler problems affecting investment in the sector are insurgency activities in certain parts of the country, the above-noted distorted ex- change rate for the kyat, and the high tax levels which have recently been introduced on imported equipment and production. Projects which may have very attractive returns to the economy tend to be somewhat marginal financially,a situation which could act against stimulatingthe interest of prospective - ii - financing institutions,and which could lead to a misallocationof resources in the economy. iv. There are five mining corporations;they are all Government