University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository Master's Theses and Capstones Student Scholarship Fall 2013 Run for your life: Spectacle primaries and the success of 'failed' primary candidates Sean Patrick McKinley University of New Hampshire, Durham Follow this and additional works at: https://scholars.unh.edu/thesis Recommended Citation McKinley, Sean Patrick, "Run for your life: Spectacle primaries and the success of 'failed' primary candidates" (2013). Master's Theses and Capstones. 175. https://scholars.unh.edu/thesis/175 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Scholarship at University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Master's Theses and Capstones by an authorized administrator of University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. RUN FOR YOUR LIFE: SPECTACLE PRIMARIES AND THE SUCCESS OF 'FAILED' PRIMARY CANDIDATES BY SEAN PATRICK MCKINLEY THESIS Submitted to the University of New Hampshire in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Masters of Arts in Political Science September, 2013 UMI Number: 1524454 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Di!ss0?t&iori Publishing UMI 1524454 Published by ProQuest LLC 2013. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 This thesis has been examined and approved. Thesis Director, Dante Scala, Associate Professor of Political Science Andrew Smith^AssociateProfessor of Political Science ftnxs-e^ owers, Associate Professor of Political Science A u . S u . S - f 3 Date Acknowledgements I would sincerely like to thank the thesis committee; Professor Jeannie Sowers, Professor Andrew Smith, and in particular Professor Dante Scala, who helped shepherd this project through more than.a year of development and instilled confidence and determination when the author was considering changing subjects. I would also like to sincerely thank Professor Wes Martin, Professor Michael Welsh, and Professor Charles Weed of Keene State College, who fostered my interest in political science into an undergraduate major and made me a far better writer and thinker than I ever could be without their attentive teaching and mentoring. Lastly, I would like to thank my family; my brother Brendan, my sisters Lauren and Brianna, and my parents, who have been there to support my academic career at every turn and without whom college, graduate school, and this thesis would not have been possible. TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements iii List of Figures viii Abstract ix Chapter I - Introduction 1 Are Elections Only About Results? 5 Methodology 7 A Quantitative or Qualitative Approach? 7 Candidate Viability and the Standard for Inclusion 8 Recent Candidates and Limitations u Chapter II - Changing Structures 13 The Evolution of the Primary 13 The Autonomous Convention System 13 The Progressive Reforms and the Breakdown of the System 14 The McGovern-Fraser Reforms and the Genesis of the Spectacle Primary 1 6 The Structure of the New System 17 Academic Understanding of Primary Process V The Bifurcated Benefits of Primary Participation 18 The Elongated Calendar 19 The Campaign Exhaustion o f Fred Thompson 2 0 The Inflation, Indebtedness and Avoidance of 2 2 Primary Spending 22 W hy D o They Stay? 23 iv The Transformation of the Political Media 27 The Leviathan Media 27 The Political Media as Arbitrators of Candidate Viability 29 Inclusion and Exclusion in Primary Debates 32 Personal Scrutiny and the “Spousal Veto” of the Mitch Daniels Candidacy 3 4 The Media as Beneficiaries of the Spectacle 35 The Politician/Pundit Muddle 3& The Perry Campaign’s “Oops” 37 Purveyors of Entertainment Not 3% Stringent Examination 3 & The Confluence of Primary Reform and Media Expansion 39 Chapter III - Typology 41 The Viable Participants and Typology Methodology 41 The Similarities of Preceding Careers 4 1 Candidate Trichotomy 4 2 The Groups 44 The Ted Kennedy Group 4 4 The Dodd Group 4 6 The Edwards/Hunter Group 4$ The Reagan/Bush Group 49 The Huckabee Group 5° The Gravel/Tsongas Group 51 The Buchanan Group 53 The LaRouche/McCormack Group 54 Overarching Trends 56 Extra-Quixotic Outsiders 5 6 V Run, Then Run Again 57 Negligible Absolute Career Risk 5 8 From Public PostrRun Careers to Private 59 Chapter IV - The Private Sector 61 Growing Pseudo-Political Opportunities Outside of Government 61 Wesley Clark’s Sojourn in Politics 62 Mike Huckabee’s “Really, Really, Wonderful...Fox Gig” 6 4 Tim Pawlenty’s Ephemeral Candidacy but Enduring Personal Success 67 The Speaking Circuit 69 The Ubiquitous Political Book 71 The Campaign Tome 72 The Cashing-In Book 72 Simultaneous Promotion of Self and Ideas 74 The Ideological Treatise 74 Super PACs as Relevancy Vehicle 75 Chapter V - The Public Sector 78 The Previously-Run Advantage 79 The Republican Line of Succession 79 A Failed Candidacy as an Asset 81 The Reuse of Electoral Infrastructure 82 Familiarity with the Kingmakers 85 Diminishing Returns from Multiple Candidacies? 8 4 The Partisan Divide 85 The Primary Campaign as a “Stepping Stone" 87 Second Place Means Second Billing? 87 The Establishment Democratic VP Nominees 89 v i The Newcomer Republican VP Nominees 9° No Room in the Cabinet 91 Sitting Candidates Keeping What They Have 94 Do Voters Punish Candidates with National Aspirations? 94 The Safety o f the Legislature 9& Chapter VI - Conclusion 99 The Chances of Reform 100 The Parallel Primaries 100 Saturation of the Spectacle Primary 101 Reform Stymied by A Self-Interested Race to the Bottom 102 Unlikely Party Intervention 103 The Future of the Spectacle Primary 103 An Uneasy Coexistence? 103 Speculative Courses for the 2012 Participants 103 The 2016 Primary 103 The Risk/Reward of Primary Participation 106 The Low Cost and Almost Non-Existent Risk of Primary Participation 10 6 The Under-Appreciated Risk of Anonymity 108 W hy N ot Run? 108 Bibliography 117 Appendix A: Viable Candidate Employment Data 125 Appendix B: Published Works by 2008 Candidates 144 v ii List of Figures Figure 1.1: Viable Presidential Primary Candidates Who Did Not Garner Their Party's Nomination: 1976-2000 .................................................................................................................. 9 Figure 3.1: Candidate Typology.................................................................................................. 43 Figure 3.2: Candidate Career Change Over Time................................................................. 59 Figure 5.1: Post-Reform Republican Party Competitive Primary Contest Results 79 Figure 5.2: Post-Reform Democratic Party Competitive Primary Contest Results 85 Figure 5.3: Democratic Party Presidential Tickets Since 1976............................................ 89 Figure 5.4: Republican Party Presidential Tickets Since 1976........................................... 91 Figure 5.5: Elected Official Presidential Candidates: When and How They Leave Their Seats ...................................................................................................................................... 94 Abstract RUN FOR YOUR LIFE: SPECTACLE PRIMARIES AND THE SUCCESS OF 'FAILED' PRIMARY CANDIDATES By Sean Patrick McKinley University of New Hampshire, September, 2013 This thesis qualitatively examines the personal career outcomes of major presidential primary candidates from 1976-2008. It argues that the primary process fundamentally changed with the introduction of reform in the 1970s. It has continued to evolve into the "spectacle primary," a system whereby mere participation, not necessarily electoral success, can convey manifold benefits to subsequent careers in the public or private sectors. It also finds far less risk in primary participation than conventional wisdom might assume. Therefore, this thesis holds that prospective candidates when weighing a presidential primary bid, should consider these ulterior benefits beyond electoral success and all else being equal, they should decide to enter presidential primary contests. Chapter I - Introduction One might be forgiven for assuming that in electoral politics, victory simply begets success while defeat begets failure. This logic makes sense in the hyper- competitive environment of the presidential nomination process; to the victor goes the spoils of nomination while the losers receive ostensibly nothing for their effort but ignominious defeat. Therefore, when a politician considers entering a presidential primary,1 the intuitive calculus is to weigh their chance of winning the nomination against the estimable costs. If the possibility of securing the nomination seems remote, conventional wisdom might dictate that the time, expense and risks of a grueling campaign might make such a venture not worthwhile. But this logic relies upon the assumption that winning the nomination contest is the only possible benefit of the modern nomination process. It ignores the ability of viable primary participants to advance themselves despite being