OCTOBER 2018 Final Report Socio-economic challenges, potentials and impacts of transnational cooperation in central Europe The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche Socio-economic challenges, potentials and impacts of transnational cooperation in central Europe VASILY ASTROV RICHARD GRIEVESON DORIS HANZL-WEISS GÁBOR HUNYA STEFAN JESTL ISILDA MARA OLGA PINDYUK LEON PODKAMINER SÁNDOR RICHTER ROMAN RÖMISCH (COORDINATOR) The information and views set out in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Interreg CENTRAL EUROPE MANAGING AUTHORITY or the Interreg CENTRAL EUROPE Programme. The Interreg CENTRAL EUROPE MANAGING AUTHORITY does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this study. Neither the Interreg CENTRAL EUROPE MANAGING AUTHORITY nor any person acting on the Interreg CENTRAL EUROPE MANAGING AUTHORITY’s behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained therein. CONTENTS 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 9 2. Identification of the main territorial challenges ......................................................................... 10 2.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................10 2.2. Globalisation ..................................................................................................................................13 2.3. Digital economy .............................................................................................................................24 2.4. Transport and accessibility ............................................................................................................37 2.5. Energy............................................................................................................................................50 2.6. Circular economy/environment ......................................................................................................60 2.7. Climate change ..............................................................................................................................78 2.8. Employment and skills ...................................................................................................................90 2.9. Social risks .....................................................................................................................................98 2.10. Demographic change/migration ...................................................................................................106 2.11. Governance .................................................................................................................................118 3. Impacts and results of the CE 2007-2013 Programme, outlook for the 2014-2020 programme, survey results and case studies ............................................................................................ 126 3.1. Quantitative analysis of inputs, outputs, results and outreach of the CE Programme 2007-2013 126 3.2. Qualitative assessment of results ................................................................................................140 3.3. Inputs and priorities of the Interreg CE Programme 2014-2020 ..................................................151 3.4. Questionnaire results ...................................................................................................................160 3.5. Case studies ................................................................................................................................168 4. Outlook and conclusions on the needs and potentials of transnational cooperation in Central Europe ......................................................................................................................................................... 241 4.1. Summary and value added of the CE Programme ......................................................................241 4.2. Conclusions, recommendations and outlook ...............................................................................247 5. References ..................................................................................................................................................... 251 6. Annex – Questionnaire ........................................................................................................................... 259 6.1. Purpose........................................................................................................................................259 6.2. Questions .....................................................................................................................................259 6.3. Annex ...........................................................................................................................................263 TABLES AND FIGURES Table 2.1 / Indicators of the globalisation vulnerability index ................................................................... 17 Table 2.2 / Impacts of extreme weather and climate-related events in the EEA member countries ........ 84 Table 2.3 / Scores of Global Indicators of Regulatory Governance (scale 0 to 1) ................................. 122 Table 3.1 / Project case studies by priority axes and Areas of Intervention ........................................... 169 Figure 2.1 / Share of trade in global GDP, % ........................................................................................... 13 Figure 2.2 / Share of foreign value added in gross exports in 2014, % ................................................... 14 Figure 2.3 / Shares in manufacturing gross value added and changes therein by country groups, % .... 15 Figure 2.4 / Share of machinery and transport equipment in merchandise exports in 2017, % ............... 16 Figure 2.5 / Globalisation vulnerability index, 2020 .................................................................................. 17 Figure 2.6 / Persons employed in ICT services in 2015, share of persons employed in total business economy, % ............................................................................................................................. 19 Figure 2.7 / Research and development spending in 2016, % of GDP .................................................... 21 Figure 2.8 / Enterprises that have made electronic sales to other EU countries in the last calendar year, 2017 – SMEs (10-249 persons employed), without financial sector ........................................ 27 Figure 2.9 / Enterprises that have made electronic sales to other EU countries in the last calendar year, 2017 – Large enterprises (250 or more persons employed), without financial sector ............. 28 Figure 2.10 / Security concerns kept individuals from ordering or buying online ..................................... 30 Figure 2.11 / ICT-related Business Enterprise Research and Development (BERD) spending, as % of GDP, 2014 ............................................................................................................................... 31 Figure 2.12 / Individuals with basic or above-basic digital skills, 2017 .................................................... 33 Figure 2.13 / Internet use: Online interaction with public authorities, 2017, % of individuals ................... 34 Figure 2.14 / Internet use: Online interaction with public authorities, 2017, % of individuals, CE NUTS-2 regions ..................................................................................................................................... 35 Figure 2.15 / Ten-T Core Network Corridors ............................................................................................ 38 Figure 2.16 / Growth of motorway and road network, 2010-2016 ............................................................ 40 Figure 2.17 / EU goods transport by mode, in tonne-kilometres .............................................................. 41 Figure 2.18 / EU passenger transport by mode, in passenger-kilometres ............................................... 42 Figure 2.19 / Share of biofuels in total fuel consumption, in %, 2015 ...................................................... 43 Figure 2.20 / Transport greenhouse gas emissions growth and as % of total country greenhouse gas emissions ................................................................................................................................. 44 Figure 2.21 / CE goods transport by mode, in tonne-kilometres .............................................................. 45 Figure 2.22 / CE passenger transport by mode, in passenger-kilometres ............................................... 46 Figure 2.23 / Road fatalities per million inhabitants, 2015 ....................................................................... 48 Figure 2.24 / Change in GHG emissions in CE and EU-28 during 1990-2016, in % ............................... 52 Figure 2.25 / Energy intensity in CE and EU-28 ...................................................................................... 54 Figure 2.26 / Share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption in CE and EU-28, in % ..... 57 Figure 2.27 / Renewable energy consumption in CE and EU-28 in 2016, by type