ACSC/DEC/010E/95-05 SPACE POWER 2010 A Research Paper Presented To The Directorate of Research Air Command and Staff College In Partial Fulfillment of the Graduation Requirements of ACSC by Major James L. Hyatt, III Major Ronald R. Ricchi Major Paul L. Laugesen Major Joseph H. Schwarz Major Michael A. Rampino May 1995 DISCLAIMER The views expressed in this academic research paper are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the US Government or the Department of Defense. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Our research group acknowledges Colonel Simon P. Worden, Commander, 50th Space Wing, for providing inspiration and vision. Our ideas for the future of military space power are largely derived from the notions he generously shared with us in a personal interview at Maxwell AFB, Alabama in January 1995. Many thanks also to Colonel Victor P. Budura and Colonel Charles L. Thompson, both of the Air War College faculty, Colonel (retired) Dennis M. Drew, Professor and Associate Dean of the School of Advanced Airpower Studies, and Lieutenant Colonel Paul Jeanes, Chief, ACSC Combat Application Facility, for their insightful guidance and suggestions. Most importantly, we thank our families for their constant support and encouragement. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .............................................................................................. iii LIST OF TABLES......................................................................................................... vi ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................. vii CHAPTER 1: PROBLEM STATEMENT...................................................................... 1 Background ................................................................................................................ 1 Thesis ......................................................................................................................... 2 Assumptions ............................................................................................................... 3 Methodology .............................................................................................................. 3 Space Power Defined.................................................................................................. 5 Elements of Space Power............................................................................................ 6 Military Space Power: Definition and Elements.......................................................... 9 Overview.................................................................................................................. 12 CHAPTER 2: BACKGROUND ................................................................................... 14 Introduction.............................................................................................................. 14 US Military Space Power--Cold War Genesis ........................................................... 14 Elements of US Military Space Power....................................................................... 17 Conclusion................................................................................................................ 28 CHAPTER 3: CONCEPTS OF OPERATIONS............................................................ 29 Introduction.............................................................................................................. 29 Concepts of Operations............................................................................................. 29 Space Strike.............................................................................................................. 30 Information Blockade ............................................................................................... 31 Space Denial............................................................................................................. 31 Omniscience/Omnipresence....................................................................................... 31 Operational Spacelift................................................................................................. 32 Massively Proliferated and Networked Microsat Constellations................................. 32 A Vision of Space Power for 2010............................................................................ 32 Scenario: Counter Proliferation................................................................................ 32 The 2010 Space Power Environment ........................................................................ 34 Lecture: Information Effects .................................................................................... 36 Scenario: Major Regional Conflict ........................................................................... 39 Lecture: Destructive Effects..................................................................................... 42 Scenario: The Future Envisioned From 2010............................................................ 43 Lecture: Exploration and Exploitation...................................................................... 45 CHAPTER 4: REQUIREMENTS ................................................................................ 48 Introduction.............................................................................................................. 48 Technological Development...................................................................................... 49 iv Spacelift.................................................................................................................... 51 Satellite Miniaturization: From Lightsats To Microsats ............................................. 54 Information Technology............................................................................................ 57 Space-Based Weapons.............................................................................................. 61 Robotics and Virtual Reality. .................................................................................... 65 Terraforming ............................................................................................................ 67 Contextual Elements for US Military Space Power Development .............................. 68 WMD Proliferation ................................................................................................... 69 Space Technology Proliferation................................................................................. 70 Commercialization .................................................................................................... 71 Treaties..................................................................................................................... 76 Organization and Doctrine ........................................................................................ 80 Conclusion................................................................................................................ 86 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................... 87 Space Power 2010 .................................................................................................... 88 Is Space Power 2010 Feasible? ................................................................................. 89 Is Space Power Really Necessary? ............................................................................ 90 How Do We Get There? ........................................................................................... 90 New Technology, New Environment, Same Old Story .............................................. 91 NOTES......................................................................................................................... 92 BIBLIOGRAPHY....................................................................................................... 105 VITAE........................................................................................................................ 118 v LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Space Power 2010 CONOPS Address US Military Space Power Deficiencies ............................................................................................................ 30 Table 2. Advancing Technologies Support Space Power 2010 Requirements ................ 51 Table 3. Microsat Technologies.................................................................................... 56 vi ACSC/DEC/010E/95-05 ABSTRACT Today’s US military space power is deficient. The US military has no space-based force application systems and no anti-satellite weapons, the latter being a key part of a space control capability. The US military also has serious limitations in its ability to deploy and sustain space forces, and minor limitations in its ability to perform the force enhancement functions. The US military must recognize and correct these deficiencies in order to remain a top space power. These deficiencies can be corrected with existing or emerging technology, especially with the aid of official policies focused to encourage growth in commercial space activities. A working lexicon is created to assist in the process of analyzing US space power and in developing a desirable vision for its future. The authors first derive a definition of space power and military space power by drawing on scholarly interpretations of the notions of space and power. The authors then describe