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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Assuring Access in Key Strategic Regions Toward a Long-Term Strategy ERIC V. LARSON, DEREK EATON, PAUL ELRICK, THEODORE KARASIK, ROBERT KLEIN, SHERRILL LINGEL, BRIAN NICHIPORUK, ROBERT UY, JOHN ZAVADIL Prepared for the United States Army Approved for public release, distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army under Contract No. DASW01-01-C-0003. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Assuring Access in Key Strategic Regions : Toward a Long Term Strategy / Eric V. Larson ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. “MG-112.” ISBN 0-8330-3544-4 (pbk.) 1. Deployment (Strategy) 2. United States. Army. 3. Military doctrine—United States. 4. Operational art (Military science) 5. World politics—21st century. 6. Asymmetric warfare. I. Larson, Eric V. (Eric Victor), 1957– U163.T68 2004 355.4'773—dc22 2004000101 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2004 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2004 by the RAND Corporation 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This is the final report of a Fiscal Year 2002 study for the U.S. Army Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations (G-3), titled “Anti-Anti-Access: Ensuring Regional Access for Future U.S. Land Forces,” which examined potential adversaries’ anti-access strategies and potential U.S. counters to these strategies. The purpose of the study was twofold. First, it aimed to support the Army’s development of transformed land forces by identifying access requirements, potential anti-access threats and counters, and coalition/alliance dependencies during the 2003–2012 time period. This time frame was chosen because it is the focus of current Army planning and because it is nearly impossible to have much certainty about potential adversary capabilities beyond that period. Second, it considers operational and technical means for overcoming anti-access threats. This report summarizes the main findings of the study; some unpublished research about the study has also been done, including the following titles: • “Anti-Access in a Baltic Scenario,” 2003; • “Anti-Access in a SWA Scenario,” 2003; • “Anti-Access in a PRC-Taiwan Scenario,” 2003; and • “Anti-Access Strategies: A Quantitative Analysis of Military Methods for Preventing, Delaying, and Degrading U.S. Force Buildups,” 2003. iii iv Assuring Access in Key Strategic Regions: Toward a Long-Term Strategy The project was sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff G-3 (Operations and Plans), U.S. Army. The project was con- ducted in the Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program of the RAND Arroyo Center. The Arroyo Center is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the U.S. Army. For more information on RAND Arroyo Center, contact the Director of Operations (telephone 310-393-0411, extension 6419; FAX 310-451-6952; e-mail [email protected]), or visit Arroyo’s web site at http://www.rand.org/ard/. Contents Preface....................................................................... iii Figures and Tables .......................................................... ix Summary.................................................................... xi Acknowledgments.......................................................... xxi Glossary ...................................................................xxiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction.................................................................1 Organization of This Report.................................................4 CHAPTER TWO Analytic Approach ..........................................................7 Some Conceptual Building Blocks...........................................7 A Definition for Anti-Access Strategies ...................................8 The Access Game .........................................................8 A Stylized Representation of a Deployment ............................ 12 Characterization of Potential Anti-Access Vulnerabilities .............. 13 Quantitative Analysis of Military Utility .................................. 14 Seminar-Style Gaming ..................................................... 15 CHAPTER THREE Southwest Asian Theater: An Iraq Game................................ 19 Overview of the Game ..................................................... 19 The Scenario ............................................................ 20 Actors, Objectives, CONOPs, and Capabilities ........................ 22 v vi Assuring Access in Key Strategic Regions: Toward a Long-Term Strategy Findings.................................................................... 26 Key Access Issues........................................................ 26 Threats of Greatest Concern............................................ 30 Other Threats Considered .............................................. 34 Implications for Regional Commanders ................................... 34 Access Requirements .................................................... 34 Options for Commander, CENTCOM ................................ 38 CHAPTER FOUR The Pacific Theater: A PRC-Taiwan Game ............................. 43 Overview of the Game ..................................................... 43 The Scenario ............................................................ 44 Actors, Objectives, CONOPs, and Capabilities ........................ 44 Findings.................................................................... 50 Key Access Issues........................................................ 51 Threats of Greatest Concern............................................ 53 Other Threats Considered .............................................. 57 Implications for Regional Commanders ................................... 58 Access Requirements .................................................... 59 Options for the PACOM Commander................................. 61 CHAPTER FIVE European Theater: A Russia-Baltics Game.............................. 65 Overview of the Game ..................................................... 65 The Scenario ............................................................ 65 Actors, Objectives, CONOPs, and Capabilities ........................ 68 Findings.................................................................... 72 Key Access Issues........................................................ 72 Threats of Greatest Concern............................................ 75 Other Threats Considered .............................................. 79 Implications for Regional Commanders ................................... 82 Access Requirements .................................................... 82 Options for the Commander of EUCOM.............................. 84 CHAPTER SIX Latin America and the Caribbean ....................................... 87 Contents vii Overview of the Games .................................................... 87 The Scenarios ........................................................... 88 Potential Adversaries in Latin America and the Caribbean ................ 88 Indigenous Guerrilla and Terrorist Groups............................. 89 Nonindigenous Guerrilla and Terrorist Groups ........................ 90 Regional Conventional Militaries....................................... 91 Findings...................................................................