Managing Motorcycles: Opportunities to Reduce Pollution and Fuel Use from Two- and Three-Wheeled Vehicles ! ii Managing Motorcycles: Opportunities to Reduce Pollution and Fuel Use from Two- and Three-Wheeled Vehicles The goal of the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is to dramatically improve the environmental performance and efficiency of personal, public and goods transportation in order to protect and improve public health, the environment, and quality of life. The Council is made up of leading regulators and experts from around the world that participate as individuals based on their experience with air quality and transportation issues. The ICCT promotes best practices and comprehensive solutions to improve vehicle emissions and efficiency, increase fuel quality and sustainability of alternative fuels, reduce pollution from the in-use fleet, and curtail emissions from international goods movement. www.theicct.org ! October 2009 The International Council on Clean Transportation Design layout and format by Yulee Kim Printed on 100% recycled paper with soy-based ink iii Managing Motorcycles: Opportunities to Reduce Pollution and Fuel Use from Two- and Three-Wheeled Vehicles Authors: Fatumata Kamakaté Program Director, the International Council on Clean Transportation Deborah Gordon! Transport Policy Consultant Primary research was conducted during 2007 and 2008. Advances in policy development in 2009 may not be reflected in this report. The authors would like to thank our many colleagues around the world that have generously contributed their time and insight in reviewing and commenting on the draft version of this report. We are especially grateful for Mr. Narayan Iyer’s thorough review of the report’s initial draft. Any errors are the sole responsibility of the authors. We would also like to thank the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the ClimateWorks Foundation for their continued support. We are particularly grateful to the following International Council on Clean Transportation participants who have closely reviewed this report and support its finding and recommendations. ICCT Review Team: Mr. Michael P. Walsh Chairman, Board of Directors The International Council on Clean Transportation, USA Dr. Michael Quanlu Wang Senior Scientist, Argonne National Laboratory, Energy Systems Division Ms. Anumita Roychowdhury Associate Director, Policy Research and Advocacy, Centre for Science and Environment Mr. Huiming Gong Transportation Program Officer, Energy Foundation Beijing This document does not necessarily represent the views of organizations or government agencies represented by ICCT reviewers and participants. Their endorsement is based on their experience with air quality and transportation issues. iv Managing Motorcycles: Opportunities to Reduce Pollution and Fuel Use from Two- and Three-Wheeled Vehicles Table of contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . ..............................................1 2. INTRODUCTION AND REPORT APPROACH ..............................3 3. BACKGROUND ON MOTORCYCLES .................................... 5 3.1 Types of Motorcycles ............................................. 5 3.2 Motorcycle Population and Growth . ..................................6 3.3 Motorcycles and Urban Mobility .....................................8 3.4 Motorcycles and Air Pollution .......................................10 3.5 Motorcycles, Fuel Consumption, and Greenhouse Gases . ................ 13 3.6 Motorcycle Industry ..............................................15 4. MOTORCYCLE TECHNOLOGIES . .....................................17 4.1 Conventional Motorcycle Technologies ...............................17 4.1.1 Control technologies for two-stroke engines . .......................19 4.1.2 Control technologies for four-stroke engines . .......................20 4.1.3 Control technologies for evaporative emissions . .....................21 4.2 Conventional Fuel Products ....................................... 21 4.3 Alternative Fuels and Next Generation Motorcycle Technologies ............ 23 4.3.1 Alternative fuel programs ......................................23 4.3.2 Electric and hybrid motorcycles . .............................. ..25 5. POLICY FRAMEWORKS .............................................28 5.1 Motorcycle Emission Standards . ....................................28 5.1.1 Exhaust emission standards ....................................28 5.1.2 Evolution of motorcycle technologies and emission regulatory programs ... 31 5.1.3 Cost effectiveness of motor vehicle regulatory programs ............... 31 5.1.4 Compliance and enforcement programs . ..........................33 5.2 Motorcycle Emissions In-Use Requirements . .......................... 35 5.3 Motorcycle Fuel Economy Standards ................................ 36 5.4 Motorcycle Fuel and Lubricating Oil Quality Standards . ..................37 5.4.1 Sulfur content of fuel ......................................... 38 5.4.2 Fuel metal and other fuel additives content .........................39 5.4.3 Lubricating oil quality and usage controls ..........................39 v Managing Motorcycles: Opportunities to Reduce Pollution and Fuel Use from Two- and Three-Wheeled Vehicles 6. OPPORTUNITIES TO REDUCE MOTORCYCLE EMISSIONS AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION .............................................41 6.1 New Vehicle Policies ...................................... 41 6.1.1 Exhaust emission standards ..............................41 6.1.2 Compliance and enforcement of standards ..................44 6.1.3 Fuel economy standards ................................45 6.1.4 Alternative fuels requirements ............................46 6.1.5 On board diagnostics ..................................48 6.1.6 Fiscal policies for clean, efficient new motorcycles .............48 6.2 In Use Vehicle Policies .....................................50 6.2.1 Motorcycle inspection and maintenance programs . ............50 6.2.2 Motorcycle retrofit and engine replacement programs . ..........52 6.2.3 Two- and three-wheeler use restrictions .....................56 6.2.4 Financial incentives for in-use motorcycle performance ..........58 6.3 Next Generation Technology Policies ..........................58 7. FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...........................59 7.1 Summary of Findings ......................................59 7.2 Recommendations ........................................ 60 7.2.1 Policies for new motorcycles and their fuels .................. 61 7.2.2 Policies for motorcycles in use . ...........................63 7.3 Conclusions .............................................64 8. REFERENCES ..............................................64 APPENDIX A . .................................................68 vi Managing Motorcycles: Opportunities to Reduce Pollution and Fuel Use from Two- and Three-Wheeled Vehicles Figures Figure 3-1. Electric Bicycle in China ............................................5 Figure 3-2. Scooter in Indonesia .................. ............................5 Figure 3-3. Tuk-tuk in Central Bangkok ..........................................6 Figure 3-4. Motorcycle Ownership Per 1,000 People ................................ 7 Figure 3-5. RSP and CO Exposure for Different Commute Modes in Delhi .............. 12 Figure 3-6. Advertised Fuel Economy for Popular Cars and Motorcycles in India .......... 13 Figure 4-1. Share of New Motorcycle Sales by Engine Type in Thailand and Taiwan ........18 Figure 4-2. Historical Gasoline Sulfur Levels in Taiwan, China, India, the United States and the European Union ..............................................22 Figure 4-3. Bicycle and Scooter Style Electric ....................................26 Figure 4-4. Cost Comparison of Common Urban Travel Modes in China ................26 Figure 4-5. Lifecycle Carbon Emissions of Transportation Modes in China ..............27 Figure 5-1. Ratio of Benefits of Costs in the Year 2030 for Several Recent Analyses . ...... 38 Figure 6-1. Trajectory of EU Standards for a Four-Stroke 125 cc Two-Wheeler ........... 43 Figure 6-2. Trajectory of Taiwan’s Standards for a Four-Stroke 125 cc Two-Wheeler ....... 43 Figure 6-3. Trajectory of India’s Standards for a Four-Stroke 125 cc Two-Wheeler .........44 Figure 6-4. Compliance and Enforcement Programs in Taiwan ....................... 45 Figure 6-5. Fuel Efficiency Standards in China and Taiwan ...........................46 Figure 6-6. France’s Feebate Schedule for New Automobiles .........................50 Figure 6-7. Motorcycle I&M Emission Reduction Estimates ..........................53 vii Managing Motorcycles: Opportunities to Reduce Pollution and Fuel Use from Two- and Three-Wheeled Vehicles Tables Table 3-1. Top Twenty Countries/Regions Based on Percentages of Motorcycles in Vehicle Fleet ............................................................7 Table 3-2. Average Motorcycle Population Growth Rate in Selected Asian Countries .......8 Table 3-3. Passenger Trip by Transportation Mode in Various Asian Cities ................9 Table 3-4. Percentage of Road Users Killed at Different Locations in India by Travel Mode ...10 Table 3-5. Two- and Three-Wheeler Contributions to Urban Transportation Emission Inventory ....................................................... 11 Table 3-6. PM and CO Air Concentrations Across Transportation Modes in Hanoi, Vietnam ..12 Table 3-7. India Motorcycle Fuel Economy Estimates by Vehicle and Engine Type ......... 14 Table 3-8. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Vehicles in Developing