Volume 26 Issue 1 Article 12 TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED STORM SURGE AND WAVE FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR TAIWAN COAST Yeayi Peter Sheng University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, U.S.A, [email protected] Vladimir Alexander Paramygin University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, U.S.A. Chuen-Teyr Terng Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan, R.O.C. Chi-Hao Chu Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan, R.O.C. Follow this and additional works at: https://jmstt.ntou.edu.tw/journal Part of the Marine Biology Commons Recommended Citation Sheng, Yeayi Peter; Paramygin, Vladimir Alexander; Terng, Chuen-Teyr; and Chu, Chi-Hao (2018) "TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED STORM SURGE AND WAVE FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR TAIWAN COAST," Journal of Marine Science and Technology: Vol. 26 : Iss. 1 , Article 12. DOI: 10.6119/JMST.2018.02_(1).0011 Available at: https://jmstt.ntou.edu.tw/journal/vol26/iss1/12 This Research Article is brought to you for free and open access by Journal of Marine Science and Technology. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of Marine Science and Technology by an authorized editor of Journal of Marine Science and Technology. TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED STORM SURGE AND WAVE FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR TAIWAN COAST Acknowledgements Central Weather Bureau provided the field data used for model erificationv in this paper. We appreciate the comments of two anonymous reviewers. This research article is available in Journal of Marine Science and Technology: https://jmstt.ntou.edu.tw/journal/ vol26/iss1/12 Journal of Marine Science and Technology, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp. 117-127 (2018) 117 DOI: 10.6119/JMST.2018.02_(1).0011 TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED STORM SURGE AND WAVE FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR TAIWAN COAST Yeayi Peter Sheng1, Vladimir Alexander Paramygin1, Chuen-Teyr Terng2, and Chi-Hao Chu2 Key words: storm surge, wave, numerical simulation, forecasting, I. INTRODUCTION Taiwan. More than 75% of the world’s population live within 100 miles from the coastline. Coastal communities and ecosystems around ABSTRACT the world are subjected to increasing hazard from storm surge This paper describes the application of a coupled surge-wave and coastal inundation due to tropical cyclones as well as cli- model for simulating storm surge and wave along Taiwan coast. mate change and sea level rise. In Taiwan typhoons are an an- The simulations were conducted with an integrated surge-wave nual threat. Not only bringing torrential rain, but often cause modeling system using a large coastal model domain wrapped storm surge and coastal inundation that impacts areas near the around the island of Taiwan, with a grid resolution of 50-400 m. coast and amplifies the flooding from rainfall. The impact of tro- Simulations were made with tide only, with wind and tide, and pical cyclones on the coastal regions in Taiwan depend on the with tide and wind and wave. tropical cyclone characteristics and coastal region characteristics. The first part of the paper describes the hindcasting of his- For example, along the southwest coast of Taiwan with low ele- torical typhoons. Hindcasting of Soudelor in 2015 revealed the vation and gentler bathymetric slope, major flooding often occurs significant effect of waves on storm surge when wave exceeded due to storm surge during tropical cyclones. Typhoon Fanapi 11 m. Both the water level and wave were well simulated by the caused major flooding along the southwest coast of Taiwan in surge-wave model. The second part of the paper describes the September 2010. Along the rocky northeast coast of Taiwan forecasting of typhoons in 2016 With a focus on typhoon Napartak where the bathymetric slope is steep, waves often break very and Megi to examine the reliability, accuracy, and efficiency of close to the coastline and contribute significantly to the storm the protopype forecasting system for Taiwan coast. surge. During July 2013, Typhoon Soulik cuased significant The system uptime is estimated at 78% during the three months storm surges and waves along the northeast coast of Taiwan. of operations. While the tide prediction has about 3-10% error This is also true for Typhoon Soudelor (2015). Although storm (relative root-mean-square-error), the water level prediction error surge is typically not as high as waves along the coast of Taiwan, increases from 5.8-13.5% for now cast to 9.8-17.4% for 6-hour rising sea level and increasingly more intense typhoons are mostly forecast, 11.4-18.2% for 12-hour forecast, and 20.3-31.4% for likely to result in higher storm surge in the 21st century which, 24-hour forecast. The forecast error increases quickly for 24-hour coupled with increasing precipitation and subsidence in south- forecast, due to the quick decline of typhoon track/intensity fore- west Taiwan, could significantly increase the risk of coastal cast accuracy beyond 24 hours. The forecasting system is run flooding in Taiwan. Therefore, a robust storm surge and wave using an Intel-based PC with the Intel® Core™ i7-3770 CPU @ forecasting system for Taiwan is urgently needed. 3.40 Ghz (4 cores/8 threads) with 32GB RAM. Wall time varies Numerous storm surge studies have been conducted around between 0.8 and 1.8 hours. Taiwan using a number of different storm surge models, e.g., CWB-1 model (Yu et al., 1994), CWB-2 model (Wu, 2014), TORI (Taiwan Ocean Research Institute) model (Liau and Chen, 2015), and HMTC (Harbor and Marine Technology Center) mo- del (Lee et al., 2015). According to a review by Sheng (2015), these models did not include wave effects. In addition, the grid Paper submitted 02/13/17; revised 07/24/17; accepted 09/07/17. Author for resolution of the CWB-1 and CWB-2 are relatively coarse correspondence: Y. Peter Sheng (e-mail: [email protected]). 1 University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, U.S.A. (> 200 m). These factors contributed to the relatively large errors 2 Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan, R.O.C. in the storm surge simulation during past typhoons including 118 Journal of Marine Science and Technology, Vol. 26, No. 1 (2018) Legend Soudelor track Fig. 2. Typhoon Nepartak (2016) track. Fig. 1. Computational domain and track of Typhoon Soudelor in 2015. Fanapi in 2010 and Soulik in 2013. Sheng et al. (2016) has shown that coupled wave-surge model can significantly improve the water level predictions where waves play a major role. This paper uses an integrated storm surge modeling system (Sheng et al., 2010a, 2010b) to simulate storm surge and coastal inundation during typhoon Soudelor (2015). The simulations use a coastal model domain (Fig. 1) wrapped around the island of Taiwan with a grid resolution of 50-300 m coupled to a larger rec- tangular domain to provide boundary conditions for the simu- lation capturing surge and waves away from the coast. The same basic modeling system, with appropriate supporting modules, Fig. 3. Typhoon Megi (2016) track. is used to forecast the storm surge and wave during 2016 and results during Nepartak and Megi are presented in this paper. The reliability, accuracy, and efficiency of the prototype fore- 2. Typhoon Nepartak (2016) casting system is assessed. in eastern Taiwan experienced the heaviest rains from the ty- phoon, with accumulations peaking at 1,334 mm. Rainfall in the Wulai District reached 722 mm in 24 hours. Twelve-hour II.TYPHOONS IN 2015 AND 2016 accumulations amounted to a record 632 mm. We describe Typhoon Soudelor in 2015 and Typhoon Nepartak Typhoon Nepartak (Fig. 2) is the second most intense tro- and Megi in 2016 below. pical cyclone in 2016 in terms of atmospheric pressure. Nepartak severely impacted Taiwan and East China, with 86 confirmed 1. Typhoon Soudelor (2015) fatalities. It caused 3 deaths and NT$677 million (US$21.1 Typhoon Soudelor (Wikipedia, 2017) was the most intense million) of damage in Taiwan. The first named storm and ty- tropical cyclone to develop in the Pacific Ocean and the third phoon of the annual typhoon season, Nepartak developed into most intense cyclone worldwide in 2015, and the strongest ty- a tropical storm south of Guam on July. Steadily tracking north- phoon since Typhoon Vongfong. Soudelor had severe impacts westward and becoming a typhoon on the next day, Nepartak in the Northern Mariana Islands, Taiwan, and eastern China, reached peak intensity with a pinhole eye on July 6. Nepartak resulting in at least 38 confirmed fatalities. Lesser effects were started to decay on July 7 and then crossed Taiwan later, before felt in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. Soudelor formed emerging into the Taiwan Strait and weakening into a severe tro- as a tropical depression on July 29 near Pohnpei and was the pical storm on July 8. It eventually made landfall over Fujian, thirteenth named storm of the 2015 typhoon season. It was slowly China on July 9 and dissipated over land one day later. strengthening and several days later started intensifying on August 2. 3. Typhoon Megi (2016) The center of the storm made landfall in eastern Taiwan at Typhoon Megi (Fig. 3), known in the Philippines as Typhoon 04:40 a.m. local time on August 8. By about 9 a.m., Soudelor had Helen, was a large and powerful tropical cyclone which affected maximum sustained winds of 173 km/h, according to Taiwanʼs Taiwan and China in late September 2016. It is the seventeenth Central Weather Bureau (CWB-MMC). Winds caused Taipei named storm and the seventh typhoon of the annual typhoon 101ʼs tuned mass damper to sway a record 100 cm. Yilan County season. Y. P. Sheng et al.: Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting for Taiwan Coast 119 Atmospheric Basing-Scale Coastal Model Products Models Models Basin-Scale Surge Models (CH3D, Coastal Surge HYCOM, NCOM, Model (CH3D) ROMS) Inundation Map GFDL, HRD, NAM, WRF, WNA, Synthetic models Surge, Basin-Scale Waves, Coastal Wave Wave Model Currents Model (SWAN) (WAVEWATCH-III) Fig.