TERMINAL EVALUATION: UNDP GEF PROJECT (ID 2568) “ACTION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARSHALL ISLANDS RENEWABLE ENERGIES (ADMIRE)” 12 MAY 2016 AMITAV RATH i Acknowledgements I am grateful to many people for their cooperation and assistance during the conduct of this evaluation and wish to thank them for providing time for meetings, interviews and for answering many questions in person and by email and phone. Special thanks are due to all the persons (listed in the third annex) who provided time and valuable insights and information and contributed to this evaluation. Special thanks are due to the staff of the Ministry of Resources and Development, Republic of the Marshall Islands for their support during the evaluation mission and to the staff of UNDP in Fiji and Bangkok, who provided many documents, shared their insights and provided full assistance. Individual mention and acknowledgement are due to ‐ Walter Myazoe at MRD, who provided a very wide set of documents on the many different energy related cooperation activities in RMI, without which my understanding of the situation would have been very inadequate; Dolores deBrum Kattil, the Project Manager who provided me with the considerable documentation on the project and made all arrangements for the meetings in RMI; Ned Lobwij at MRD who stepped in to make many interviews and meetings actually happen, as Annex 3. Special acknowledgements are due to Emma Mario, the Environment Programme Analyst at the UNDP Fiji MCO for discussions and additional documents; Thomas Jensen, Energy Programme Specialist at the UNDP Pacific Centre, Fiji, for extensive comments to the first draft; and to Manuel L. Soriano, Regional Technical Advisor, Energy & Climate Change at the UNDP Bangkok Regional Centre Bangkok for his views. The views expressed in this final report are those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of UNDP, the government of the Republic of the Marshall Islands or the project stakeholders, who were consulted in the preparation of this report, except as directly quoted or referenced. Earlier drafts have been shared MRD staff at RMI and with the UNDP staff and revised according to comments received. This report, or portions thereof, may not be reproduced without explicit written reference to the source. Amitav Rath ii Contents Table of Contents Acronyms and abbreviations .................................................................................................. iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... viii 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Evaluation objectives .............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Subject and scope of the evaluation ....................................................................................... 1 1.3 Key Issues for Special Consideration ....................................................................................... 2 1.4 Approach and methodology .................................................................................................... 2 1.5 Timeline ................................................................................................................................. 3 1.6 Limitations of the evaluation .................................................................................................. 3 1.7 Structure of the report ............................................................................................................ 4 2. PROJECT BACKGROUND .................................................................................................... 5 2.1 The RMI Context ..................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Background to ADMIRE ........................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Project goals and context ........................................................................................................ 7 3. FINDINGS .......................................................................................................................... 9 3.1 Milestones in Project Design and Implementation .................................................................. 9 3.2 PROJECT FORMULATION ......................................................................................................... 9 3.2 RISK ANALYSIS/ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................. 12 3.3 Implementation Arrangements ............................................................................................. 13 3.4 Stakeholder analysis: ............................................................................................................ 13 3.5 Strengths and Weaknesses of the Project Design .................................................................. 15 3.6 Rating of Project Design ........................................................................................................ 16 3.7 PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ................................................................................................. 18 3.7.1 The Medium Term Evaluation (MTE) and Report (MTR)........................................................ 19 3.7.2 Implementation after the MTR: 2012‐2015 ........................................................................... 20 3.7.3 Project Expenditures: 2012 – 2016 ........................................................................................ 21 3.7.3 Project Outputs 2012 – 2016 .............................................................................................. 22 3.8 SOME KEY ADMIRE OUTPUTS & OUTCOMES ......................................................................... 28 3.8.1 ADMIRE SUPPORT FOR OUTER ISLAND ELECTRIFICATION ..................................................... 29 3.8.2 Wind Resources ...................................................................................................................... 31 3.8.3 Copra and biodiesel ................................................................................................................ 32 3.8.4 Other Partners and Related Activities .................................................................................... 34 3.9 Energy and RMI 2008 ‐ 2012 .................................................................................................. 34 iii 4 ASSESSMENTS ................................................................................................................. 35 4.1 RELEVANCE ........................................................................................................................... 36 4.2 EFFECTIVENESS ..................................................................................................................... 36 4.3 EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................... 37 4.4 SUSTAINABILITY .................................................................................................................... 38 4.5 MAINSTREAMING ................................................................................................................. 38 4.6 GENDER ................................................................................................................................ 38 4.7 EVALUATION RATINGS .......................................................................................................... 39 5. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................ 40 6. LESSONS ......................................................................................................................... 41 7. RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................................................... 41 ANNEX 1: TERMS OF REFERENCE ........................................................................................... 44 ANNEX 2: LIST OF DOCUMENTS REVIEWED ............................................................................ 52 ANNEX 3: MEETINGS ARRANGED AND PERSONS INTERVIEWED ............................................ 56 ANNEX 4: ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: RMI and ADMIRE ..................................................... 57 List of tables: TABLE 1: PROJECT IDENTIFICATION DETAILS .......................................................................................................... VI TABLE 2: EVALUATION TIMELINE .......................................................................................................................... 3 TABLE3: MILESTONES AND KEY DATES IN PROJECT DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION ........................................................ 9 TABLE 4: ADMIRE SRF/LFA AS APPROVED & AS REVISED .............................................................................. 10 TABLE 5: SUMMARY LIST OF STAKEHOLDERS AND KEY ROLES IN THE ADMIRE .......................................................... 14 TABLE 6: SUMMARY RATINGS OF PROJECT DESIGN ............................................................................................... 16 TABLE 7: EXPENDITURES IN ADMIRE 2008‐2011 ..............................................................................................