PolS 202: Intro to American Politics Stephanie Stanley Week 5: Elections Agenda • Primary Election • Party Nominations • General Election/ Electoral College • Money in Elections • Citizens United and SuperPACS Pre-Gaming • “Green Primary” – Look for donors and sponsors – Party Insiders • File paperwork • Establish campaign – Hire personnel – Work out initial strategies – Announce candidacy It’s a Numbers Game Super-delegates: Democratic party, 716 unpledged delegates, made up of elected officials and party leaders Primaries and Caucuses • 2 ways to get delegates – Primary: direct, statewide process of selecting candidates; voters cast secret ballots for candidates; run by the state • Open Primaries: all registered voters may participate • Closed Primaries: voters may only vote for candidates from the party with which they are registered – Caucus: allows participants to support candidates openly, typically by hand raising or breaking out into groups, run by the party Super Tuesday • About ½ of the GOP delegates and about a 1/3 of the Democratic delegates are up for grabs • Primaries – Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia • Caucuses – Colorado, Minnesota, Alaska (GOP only), Wyoming (GOP only), American Samoa (Dems only) Winning Delegates • Proportional – Most states will award delegates proportionally • Winner take all – Some states give all their delegates to the winner • Bounded/pledged delegates – At least during the first round of voting at the party convention, these delegates must vote according to the primary or caucus results in their sates And Then They Drop Like Flies… • Early primaries, caucuses, and Super Tuesday test the viability of candidates • The more a candidate falls behind in the delegate count, the more funding dries up and the less momentum he/she has moving forward • When too much ground is lost (re: delegate count), candidates “suspend” their campaigns Party Conventions • Officially nominate presidential candidates – State by state, delegates cast votes – By the convention, we usually know who the candidate will be (at least since the mid 1970s) • Formalize party platforms The General Election • Nominees from each party (including minor parties) move onto the general election • Electoral College – Total of 538 electoral votes – Magic number needed to win: 270 Electoral College • Each state gets electors based on their representation in the House and Senate – Senators: 2 – House: 1-53 – Ex. WA- 2 Senators + 10 Reps= 12 electors • D.C. gets the minimal 3 electors • Most states are winner take all (Maine and Nebraska are special) • Total: 538 electoral votes (Senate + House +DC) Electoral College • Electors from each party are chosen by the parties at the state level – WA: 12 Democrats, 12 Republicans – 2016: 12 Democrats represented WA in DC • Depending on which candidate wins the state, a different slate of electors will head off to DC to officially elect the president and vice president – “Faithless Electors” are a rare occurrence. • House acts as a tie breaker Electoral College Record • Ties – 1824 (House reversed popular vote winner) • Electoral College Winner not Popular Vote Winner – 1876, 1888, 1960, 2000, 2016 Founders’ Intent Re: Electoral College • Electors would be selected by state legislatures • Electors would select the most qualified person to be president (no candidate-driven campaigns, “stand for office”) • The House of Representatives would act as the tie breaker • Most likely saw electors as the nominators, and the House as the selector Who Benefits? • Small States – People in small states are overrepresented • WY 1 per 160,000 voters vs. CA 1 per 600,000 voters • Large States – Winner-take-all advantages large states • Win WY by 1 vote, get 3 electoral votes • Win CA by 1 vote, get 55 electoral votes • Swing States – Candidates have an incentive to focus on competitive states and will cater to those states more than non- competitive states What are some arguments for and against the electoral college? Arguments For the Electoral College • Nationally representative president • Democratic elections in each state, where majority rules • Swing state voters have an incentive to be informed more than other voters • Ensures a definitive outcome and avoids run off elections • Weeds out minor candidates who could win with a plurality of votes Arguments Against Electoral College • Does not uphold majoritarianism • Favors swing states that are not representative • Discourages Republicans in blue states and Democrats in red states from voting • Uneven representation – 1 WY elector =160,000 voters vs. – 1 CA elector=600,000 voters • Elitist system that is a vestige of slavery Money in Elections Money as Speech • Buckley v. Valeo, 1976 – “Virtually every means of communicating ideas in today’s mass society requires the expenditure of money. The distribution of the humblest handbill or leaflet entails printing, paper, and circulation costs. Speeches and rallies generally necessitate hiring a hall and publicizing the event. The electorate’s increasing dependence on television, radio and other mass media for news and information has made these expensive modes of communication indispensable instruments of effective political speech.” Limits on Campaign Donations Citizens United v. FEC, 2010 • Facts: – Citizens United created Hillary the Movie, spending more than the allotted amount a PAC could spend • Question: – 4 questions – Did Citizens United violate campaign finance laws? • Decision: – Corruption: quid pro quo standard – Unlimited independent expenditures – No coordination • Effects: – Carved out space for the rise of SuperPACS Rise of SuperPACS • PAC: – Political action committee; organization that forms to make limited contributions to candidates and campaigns • SuperPAC: – Cannot donate unlimitedly (rules still apply) – Can have unlimited expenditures spent independently on behalf of/against a candidate or issue – Again, unlimited independent expenditures – No coordination between candidates, campaigns, and SuperPACs is permitted SuperPACs and Dark Money • SuperPACs, like PACs, must disclose their donors, but Non-profits do not need to disclose their donors • Dark Money – Create Non-Profit – Donate $ to Non-Profit – Follow Non-Profit rules – Non-profit gives $ to SuperPAC – SuperPAC spends money SuperPAC $$$ Isn’t the Magic Bullet Paper Prompt • Prompt: Do elections/ political parties/ interest groups/ the media (pick one) hinder or facilitate American democracy? – Identify one component of democracy and describe it. – Pick one linking mechanism and be specific on how it hinders or facilitates your element of democracy. – Successful papers will have a clear thesis that encompasses both of these elements of the prompt. • READ and FOLLOW Instructions! • Come see me if you have questions about topics, academic sources, organizing your paper, etc. Goldstein et al: Geeks are Polarized • Explain the differences between three possible drivers of election outcomes: persuasion, mobilization, and fundamentals. • Why do Goldstein, Dallek, and Rivlin think that we should pay careful attention to persuasion and mobilization even though fundamentals are the most important influence on national election outcomes? Bailey: Two Sides of Money • What are the benefits and drawbacks to having money in campaigns and politics? • Explain the Anticipated Reaction Principle and Indirect Competition Principle. Why do this principles matter? • What are the 4 fundamental aspects of money in politics? • What reforms does Bailey critique, and what reforms does he propose? Discussion • Does our current presidential nomination process produce the best results? Why/ why not? • What are the pros and cons of having money in elections? • Are SuperPACs good or bad for democracy? Thursday’s Class • Political Parties – Aldrich: Why Parties? – Rae: Be Careful What You Wish For – Two Party vs. Multi-Party System • Exams will be handed back at the end of class..