August 2010 Dashboard The Monthly Auto Update Speedometer Data Track: August volume update of auto majors August 2010 relative performance Sector overview and outlook ......................................................... 2 Hero Honda ................................................................................. 3 M OSL Auto Index Sensex 110 Bajaj Auto ................................................................................... 4 Maruti Suzuki .............................................................................. 6 10 6 Mahindra & Mahindra ................................................................... 8 Tata Motors ................................................................................ 10 TVS Motor .................................................................................12 10 2 Special Report: Maruti Suzuki: Annual report update ........... 13 98 2-Aug-10 9-Aug-10 16-Aug-10 23-Aug-10 30-Aug-10 Sector Gauge: July update 12-month relative performance Two-wheelers ............................................................................15 Three-wheelers ..........................................................................16 M OSL Auto Index Sensex Cars and UVs ............................................................................. 18 18 0 Commercial vehicles .................................................................... 20 14 0 News and Events .................................................................... 23 Yamaha’s three launches: the SZ, SZ-X and YBR 125 10 0 Maruti launches five CNG vehicles with new technology 60 Hyundai to increase car prices in September Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Ford to export Figo to new markets Aggregate Volumesv For August* Segment Aug-10 Aug-09 YoY (%) Jul-10 MoM (%) YTDFY11 YTDFY10 Chg (%) 2-Wheelers 880,902 725,030 21.5 870,573 1.2 4,251,105 3,332,111 27.6 Motorcycle 780,367 648,705 20.3 768,518 1.5 3,811,025 2,981,166 27.8 Scooters & Mopeds 100,535 76,325 31.7 102,055 -1.5 440,080 350,945 25.4 3-Wheelers 45,262 33,673 34.4 46,458 -2.6 211,714 137,158 54.4 Cars 129,033 100,231 28.7 126,736 1.8 603,049 464,108 29.9 UVs 24,914 20,278 22.9 21,722 14.7 116,493 80,951 43.9 Commercial Vehicles 40,611 32,520 24.9 40,423 0.5 190,949 143,410 33.1 LCV 23,895 20,254 18.0 23,974 -0.3 112,486 90,484 24.3 M&HCV 16,716 12,266 36.3 16,449 1.6 78,463 52,926 48.3 Tractors 13,435 10,594 26.8 14,592 -7.9 78,177 48,025 62.8 Total Volumes 1,134,157 922,326 23.0 1,120,504 1.2 5,451,487 4,205,763 29.6 * Aggregate of Bajaj Auto, Hero Honda, TVS Motor, Maruti, M&M, and Tata Motors Source: Company/MOSL Comparative Valuation CMP * Rating EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) (Rs) FY10 FY11E FY12E FY10 FY11E FY12E FY10 FY11E FY12E FY10 FY11E FY12E Bajaj Auto 2,749 Buy 125.6 180.7 197.4 21.9 15.2 13.9 14.3 10.0 8.8 78.8 67.5 48.6 Hero Honda 1,759 Buy 112.2 114.1 134.6 15.7 15.4 13.1 11.0 10.3 8.0 61.7 54.0 39.2 Mahindra & Mahindra 628 Buy 42.6 57.9 68.3 14.8 10.8 9.2 10.2 8.9 7.2 26.1 23.1 22.0 Maruti Suzuki 1,273 Buy 86.7 80.4 97.6 14.7 15.8 13.0 7.7 7.8 6.3 21.1 16.4 17.2 Tata Motors 1,009 Buy 24.1 120.5 140.6 41.8 8.4 7.2 9.5 5.1 4.5 18.3 51.7 39.9 * Price as on 1 September 2010 Source: Company/MOSL Jinesh Gandhi ([email protected]); Tel: +91 22 3982 5416 Sandeep Patil ([email protected]); Tel: +91 22 3982 5418 Dashboard Sector overview and outlook Data Track Positive outlook for the sector, though short-term headwinds exist Strong volume growth: Volume growth is expected to continue, driven by a strong economic recovery, increase in availability of finance and new product launches by existing and global players entering the market. Besides, strong exports will support strong volumes. The volume guidance provided by automakers indicates a favorable environment for FY11. EBITDA margins to moderate, stay above historical average: Continued volume growth will give the industry pricing power and support high operating leverage. Besides, leading companies have undertaken cost cuts and productivity improvement programs, which will dilute the impact of raw material cost inflation, supporting higher margins. Ramping up operations in tax-free zones like Uttaranchal will help to counter cost pressure through a lower tax burden. Multiple headwinds in the short term: The auto industry will face headwinds in the short-run due to (a) an increase in cost of ownership because of 2% higher excise duty and partial pass-through of cost inflation in RM costs and emission-norm changes, (b) an increase in cost of operations as fuel prices rose 15-22% in the past year, (c) hardening monetary policy resulting in higher interest rates for automobiles, (d) the impact of forex volatility as exposures are to multiple currencies, and (e) increasing competitive pressure. Valuation and view: Strong momentum in volumes is expected to continue across segments. EBITDA margins are expected to be above the historical average, despite moderating for higher levels in FY10. Most auto stocks have outperformed benchmarks over the past 12 months, driven by strong volumes and margins. We prefer players that are less vulnerable to competitive dynamics, enabling dilution of short-term headwinds. Our top picks are M&M and Bajaj Auto. Comparative Valuation CMP * Rating EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) (Rs) FY10 FY11E FY12E FY10 FY11E FY12E FY10 FY11E FY12E FY10 FY11E FY12E Bajaj Auto 2,749 Buy 125.6 180.7 197.4 21.9 15.2 13.9 14.3 10.0 8.8 78.8 67.5 48.6 Hero Honda 1,759 Buy 112.2 114.1 134.6 15.7 15.4 13.1 11.0 10.3 8.0 61.7 54.0 39.2 Mahindra & Mahindra 628 Buy 42.6 57.9 68.3 14.8 10.8 9.2 10.2 8.9 7.2 26.1 23.1 22.0 Maruti Suzuki 1,273 Buy 86.7 80.4 97.6 14.7 15.8 13.0 7.7 7.8 6.3 21.1 16.4 17.2 Tata Motors 1,009 Buy 24.1 120.5 140.6 41.8 8.4 7.2 9.5 5.1 4.5 18.3 51.7 39.9 * Price as on 1 September 2010 Source: Company/MOSL 2 September 2010 2 Dashboard Hero Honda Data Track Below estimates; volumes up 2.3% YoY (down 0.7% MoM) at 424,617 units Snapshot of volumes for August YoY MoM Chg YoY Residual Aug-10 Aug-09 Jul-10 YTDFY11 YTDFY10 FY11E (%) (%) (%) (%) Gr. (%) Total volume 424,617 415,137 2.3 427,686 -0.7 2,086,342 1,900,932 9.8 5,290,150 15.0 18.7 Source: Company/MOSL Highlights Hero Honda posted August 2010 volumes of 424,617 units (against our estimate of 445,000 units), growth of 2.3% YoY (down 0.7% MoM). Volumes were impacted by restricted movement of inventory from its Haridwar plant due to the ‘Kawad’ pilgrimage, impacting volumes by 22,000-25,000 units. This growth is despite last year’s high base (~36% growth in August 2009) and ongoing constraint in supply of components. Supply constraints are expected to ease from August 2010. It’s scooter business is scaling up rapidly with volumes of over 27,000 units in Aug-10. Although the outlook seems buoyant, short-term headwinds continue to impact the two- wheeler industry. Anil Dua, Sr VP (Mktg) said: “The domestic two-wheeler industry remains buoyant and we expect growth to maintain this trajectory in coming months. For us at Hero Honda, record four lakh (0.4m) plus sales for fourth consecutive month has set the tone for festive season. We are looking to ride this buoyancy, having lined up a number of new launches to meet our customers’ expectations and bring a lot of excitement in the festive season. However, certain concerns such as high inflation and short supply of components continue to bother two-wheeler industry in the near term.” We model volume growth of 15% for FY11 (to 5.3m units), implying a residual monthly run rate of 457,687units (v/s 417,268 units in FY11 YTD), higher contribution from the Haridwar plant (~34% of volume), and a 220bp decline in margins to 14.7%. The stock trades at 15.4x FY11E EPS of Rs114.2 and 13.1x FY12 EPS of Rs134.6. Buy. Hero Honda: 2-wheelers FY 09 FY10 FY 11 475,000 410,000 Restricted movement of 345,000 inventory impacted volumes 280,000 215,000 150,000 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Company/MOSL Hero Honda: Financialf & Valuation Summary Bloomberg HH IN Year Net Sales PAT EPS EPS P/E P/CE P/BV EV/ RoE RoCE Equity Shares (m) 199.7 End (Rs m) (Rs m) (Rs) Gr. (%) (X) (X) (X) EBITDA (%) (%) CMP (Rs) 1,759 3/09A 123,191 13,008 65.1 34.4 27.0 23.7 9.2 18.8 38.3 48.1 52-Week Range 2,075/1,396 3/10A 157,582 22,402 112.2 72.2 15.7 14.4 10.1 11.0 61.7 72.8 1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%) -5/-8/2 3/11E 184,016 22,795 114.1 1.8 15.4 14.1 7.0 10.3 54.0 63.0 M.Cap. (US$ b) 7.5 3/12E 208,531 26,887 134.6 17.9 13.1 12.1 5.1 8.0 39.2 46.8 2 September 2010 3 Dashboard Bajaj Auto Data Track Above estimates, highest ever volumes at 329,634 units (+54.6% YoY); Buy Snapshot of volumes for August YoY MoM Chg YoY Residual Aug-10 Aug-09 Jul-10 YTDFY11 YTDFY10 FY11E (%) (%) (%) (%) Gr.