FACTORS AFFECTING THE FEASIBILITY OF A WARSAW PACT INVASION OF WESTERN EUROPE A Senior Honors Thesis by Corbin Williamson Submitted to the Office of Honors Programs Texas A&M University In partial fulfillment of the requirements of the UNIVERSITY UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH FELLOWS April 2008 Major: History ii ABSTRACT Factors Affecting the Feasibility of a Warsaw Pact Invasion of Western Europe (April 2008) Corbin Williamson Department of History Texas A&M University Fellows Advisor: Dr. Donald Curtis Department of History The end of the Cold War and the opening of selected archives in both Eastern and Western Europe provide scholars the opportunity to study this period with greater accuracy and detail than was previously possible. This study sought to determine the feasibility of a Warsaw Pact invasion of Western Europe in 1987 through the examination of the factors that would have affected such an operation. The factors are the reliability of military allies, the potential for the use of nuclear weapons, Warsaw Pact strategy, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) strategy, operations on Europe’s flanks, naval operations, aerial operations, reinforcement and mobilization, readiness, terrain and weather, and ground forces. These factors were examined through iii the use of secondary literature on military forces in the Cold War as well as primary sources such as government documents and publications. After each of these factors have been analyzed then conclusions will be drawn about the probable course of such a conflict in Central Europe. The argument will be made that nuclear weapons would not have been used in the first stages of a war by NATO or the Warsaw Pact. NATO’s ability will be shown to be sufficient to successfully defend most of West Germany. As this was not the conclusion of many defense analysts during the Cold War this research highlights the importance of withholding judgments about the capabilities of military forces until all relevant data is available. iv For my fiancé, Ashley v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work would not have been possible with the aid and support of many different individuals and organizations. The Office of Honors Programs at Texas A&M University and the Melbern G. Glassock Center for Humanities Research both provided funding that made the procurement of several key books and articles possible. My advisor, Dr. Donald Curtis, supported me throughout this project and insightfully suggested that I examine the reliability of the members of NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Kallie Gallagher and the Interlibrary Loan staff at the Sterling C. Evans Library helpfully and cheerfully completed my endless requests for books and articles. My roommate, John Luck, deserves thanks for putting up with my less than predictable work schedule. My parents, Matt and Lauri Williamson, and my siblings, Heather and Travis, also deserve recognition for their support and encouragement. Any errors in this work are my own and certainly not the fault of the individuals mentioned above. Corbin Williamson vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT………………………………………………………….. ii DEDICATION………………………………………..…….…….….. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS………………………………………..… v TABLE OF CONTENTS………………………………………….…. vi LIST OF FIGURES…………………………………………….…….. ix LIST OF TABLES…………………………………………………… x GLOSSARY…………………………………………………………. xi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION: WHY THE LATE 1980s?.………….… 1 NATO’s Only Chance….……………………….…....... 3 2 RELIABILITY OF MILITARY ALLIES……………....….. 12 NATO and Reliability….……………………….…....... 12 The Warsaw Pact and Reliability...……………………. 15 3 THE NON-NUCLEAR ARGUMENT…..……………...….. 20 4 WARSAW PACT STRATEGY……………………………. 28 5 NATO STRATEGY………………………………………… 43 vii 6 EUROPE’S FLANKS………………………………………. 54 Norway…………………………………………….…....... 55 The Mediterranean………………………...…….…....... 57 Conclusion...…………………………………….…....... 59 7 NAVAL FORCES AND OPERATIONS…………………... 60 Maritime Roles………………………...………….…....... 60 Soviet Maritime Forces...……………..………….…....... 67 NATO Maritime Forces..……………..………….…....... 78 Conclusion...……………………….…..………….…....... 91 8 THE WAR IN THE AIR……………………………………. 95 Organization…………………………………….…....... 95 Doctrine and Tactics…………………………….…....... 98 Weather………………………………….……….…....... 104 Numerical Strength..…………………………….…....... 105 Quality….………..……………………………….…....... 109 Conclusion……………………………………….…....... 111 9 MOBILIZATION AND REINFORCEMENT………...…… 113 Warning Time…..………..……………………….…....... 115 European NATO..…………..…………………….…....... 119 Overseas NATO..…………...…………………….…....... 133 Warsaw Pact………………..…………………….…....... 149 10 READINESS: TRAINING AND LOGISTICS……………. 166 Warsaw Pact Logistics………………..………….…....... 167 NATO Logistics…..……………...……………….…....... 169 Warsaw Pact Training.………………….……….…....... 172 NATO Training...………………..……………….…....... 175 11 TERRAIN AND WEATHER………………………………. 177 Weather……………..…………………………….…....... 177 viii Terrain….……………...………………………….…....... 178 NORTHAG…..………..………………………….…....... 180 CENTAG.……………...………………………….…....... 186 Conclusion..……………………………………….…....... 191 12 GROUND FORCES………………………………………... 193 Location and Size………..….…………………….…....... 193 Force to Space Ratios..……..…………………….…....... 198 Equipment………………..……………………….…....... 201 Conclusion………………..……………………….…....... 203 13 CONCLUSION……………………..…………………..…... 204 REFERENCES CITED…...………………………………………….. 210 REFERENCES CONSULTED………………………………………. 219 APPENDIX I WARSAW PACT TREATY……………..…………... 229 APPENDIX II NATO TREATY…………………………...………… 234 APPENDIX III CHURCHILL ON MOBILIZATION………………. 239 CURRICULUM VITA………………………………………….……. 241 ix LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE Page 1 Soviet Invasion Plan……………………………………………... 35 2 NATO Corps Sectors…………………………………………….. 47 3 Soviet Air Defenses….…………………………………………... 109 4 West German Forces………...…………………………………… 121 5 Belgian Units in Belgium…..……………………………………. 124 6 Dutch Forces in Netherlands……...………………………… ….. 126 7 French Forces in France…….……………………………………. 129 8 Soviet Forces in East Germany and Poland……………………… 154 9 Soviet Forces in Czechoslovakia………………………………… 155 10 Soviet Forces in Hungary………………………………………... 155 11 Soviet Military Districts……………………………………….. 158 12 Western USSR Military Districts………………………………... 159 13 NATO Corps Sectors…………………………………………….. 196 x LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page 1 Soviet and Warsaw Pact Naval Deployments...……...…………... 69 2 NATO Naval Deployments I.....……………………...………….. 80 3 NATO Naval Deployments II..…………………………………... 81 4 Comparative Naval Strength...…………………………………… 94 5 Summer Weather in Germany…...………………………………. 104 6 NATO Aerial Strength…..……...………………………….…... 106 7 Warsaw Pact Aerial Strength….…………………………………. 107 8 Aircraft for US Reinforcement…………...……………………… 141 9 NATO Ground Forces After Mobilization.……………………… 148 10 Non-Soviet Pact Forces...………………………………………... 151 11 Soviet Forces in Eastern Europe..……………………………….. 156 12 Soviet Forces in the USSR……...………………………………... 160 13 Warsaw Pact Invasion Forces…...……………………………….. 194 14 NATO Defensive Forces………………………………………… 195 15 NATO Corps Force to Space Ratios…………………………….. 199 xi GLOSSARY Army: Military unit composed of 2 or more corps, usually has over 100,000 soldiers Army Group: Military unit composed of 2 or more armies ASW: Antisubmarine Warfare, systems, weapons, or ships primarily designed or trained to detect, track, and engage enemy submarines AWACS: Airborne Early Warning and Control System, US aircraft equipped with long range airborne radar designed to coordinate activities of other allied aircraft Battalion: Military unit with 600-1000 soldiers, composed of 3-4 companies Battle Force: US Navy formation composed of 2 or more carrier battle groups BB: Battleship, a large heavily armored warship of 35-50,000 tons armed with long range 13-16 inch guns and other short and medium range guns, designed to engage enemy ships and provide fire support for ground operations BOAR: British Army of the Rhine, British forces stationed in West Germany Brigade: Military unit with 4-6,000 soldiers, composed of 3-5 battalions C-5: Long range strategic US air transport C-141: Long range strategic US air transport C-130: Medium range strategic US air transport CAST: Canadian Air Sea Transportable Brigade, brigade of Canadian forces tasked to Norway in wartime CG: Guided Missile Cruiser, a medium sized warship of 7-12,000 tons powered by diesel engines and armed with guided missiles, guns, and torpedoes designed to engage enemy ships, submarines, aircraft and missiles, occasionally carried 1-2 ASW helicopters CGN: Guided Missile Cruiser, similar to a CG except powered by nuclear engines CHG: Guided Missile Helicopter Cruiser, similar to a CG carrying roughly 6-15 helicopters and fewer weapons Common User Fleet: Commercial transports owned by US maritime companies who pledged their ships to the US military for sealift in wartime Corps: Military unit composed of 2 or more divisions Counter-force: A strategic nuclear targeting strategy where nuclear weapons are targeted on enemy nuclear weapons and their delivery systems xii Counter-value: A strategic nuclear targeting strategy where nuclear weapons are targeted on enemy cities in order to maximize enemy civilian deaths CV: Aircraft Carrier, a large diesel powered warship, weighing 30-60,000 tons and carrying 20-75 aircraft and several helicopters, armed with short range air defense weapons, designed for use in concert with escorting warships CVBG: Carrier Battle Group, composed of one aircraft carrier and 5-10 escorting warships CVH: Helicopter Carrier, A large diesel powered warship with a complement of 6-20 helicopters designed primarily