Where can you raise capital today ? Euromed Management Maritime Forum 2009 Marseille, France, 15 September 2009 By Joep Gorgels – Head of Transportation Europe – Fortis Bank Nederland 1 Disclaimer This presentation contains information which is either non-public, confidential or proprietary in nature. You hereby agree that you will not disclose at any time or otherwise make available to any third party any of the information presented in this presentation and the presentation itself. 2 Traditional Money Supply versus New Money Supply Traditional New EQUITY EQUITY KG market in Germany Commodity producers and traders Equity Markets in USA / Asia / Europe Funds of all types KS / CV market in Scandinavia / Private and public equity Holland Chinese /Islamic money/funds Private equity (families) Leasing Venture Capital (opportunity / distressed funds) DEBT DEBT Banks (local & international) Pension & Insurance funds Bonds (USA, Norway) Sovereign Wealth Funds (governments) Chinese Banks / Funds Islamic funds Development Banks & Export Credit High yield bonds Convertible bonds 3 Traditional Sources of Capital for Shipping Bank Loans have traditionally satisfied approx. 75% of capital requirements Limited activity Bilateral Lending Internal equity finance Shipyard finance Syndicated closed Government A severe shortage of loans Other bank debt is currently constraining the shipping 40.2% 36.2% 39% industry, an industry that is heavily dependent on the banking market. Bonds/Public2.5% Equity 8.0% 5% 2.0% 6.0% 5.0% Equity funds KG/KS Schemes Tax Lease investors4% Non ship KG / KS Bond & mortgage loans markets Public Equity Markets currently closed or extremely Limited activity limited activity. Source: various 4 The Ship Finance Cycle High returns in shipping Higher margins Non-shipping for counter banks enter the cyclical lending market Non-shipping Increased banks leave competition Current position in the industry the cycle but with the unique difference that the financial crisis has limited the lending capacity of traditional shipping Market Reduced margins banks. Collapses Cheap debt leads Excess supply of to accelerated tonnage borrowing 5 While debt from traditional sources decrease… …new money could be locked in from Pension & Sovereign wealth funds Main shipping banks closed. Reduced appetite for growth of portfolio in asset backed lending due to balance sheet constraints, government rules and support, or merger between banks and too large concentration into one segment. KG / KS / CV market problematic. Difficult to raise new equity via these structures as debt to leverage this equity a scarcity is. Existing structures show a lot of problems due to charters not / less paying and bankruptcy, covenant breaches, high opex, lower returns, and lower asset sale revenues that would offer an early exit. Family run companies have suffered as well in the downturn. Liquidity used for other type of investments (real estate, yachts, cars) at holding level or outside the company. Equity and bond markets went down but open up again!! Investors buy stocks again and the first IPO’s are planned. Many follow-on offers / rights issues are done. Bonds market is active since 2Q2009 again. Pension Funds & Sovereign Wealth Funds sit on large sums of money to invest. Their “asset management” strategy is to invest in shares, bonds, real estate, commodities, private equity, etcetera They diversify in these assets. Sovereign Wealth Funds (“SWF”) are state-owned and contain usually a large amount of foreign currencies. Assets under management probably around US$ 3.5 trillion. Pension funds like ABP / APG / PGGM in The Netherlands have large funds. They consist of savings and investments from decades and originate from employees fees. The amounts they manage vary from EUR 175 billion to EUR 80 billion or smaller ones of a few billion. 6 Table of contents 1. Bank debt – some trends 2. Export Credit 3. (High Yield) Bonds and Equity Raising 4. Pension & Sovereign Wealth Funds 5. Islamic Funds 6. Fortis Bank Nederland / ABN AMRO - committed to shipping 7 Credit tightness since mid 2008….. Global shipping loans by volume in USD bln 100 75 Q4 Q3 50 Q2 Q1 25 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Dealogic, syndicated and significant bilateral transactions In 2007 approximately USD 100 bln was lend to the shipping industry in the syndicated and non syndicated loan market 2008 showed a decline and with credit tightness 2009 is also proving to be a difficult year 8 ….and shipping finance continues to decrease during 2009…. Global shipping loans by quarterly volume and number of deals 35 120 96 96 30 91 100 25 77 74 80 20 60 15 34 33 40 10 21 21 5 20 0 0 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 Source: Dealogic, syndicated and significant bilateral transactions The high volume in 1Q09 was mainly driven by AP Moller’s Maersk USD 6.5 bln debt restructuring 9 …basically coming to a standstill in 2Q & 3Q 2009 Global syndicated shipping volume 30,000 25,351 26,079 25,000 24,257 21,486 22,778 20,443 21,113 20,000 17,521 17,726 16,311 15,000 11,901 14,181 USD mln USD 10,000 10,351 10,848 4,408 5,000 3,999 2,500 360 889 1,018 3,036 2,201 1,635 2,503 2,963 1,436 2,005 1,068 1,584 3,610 680 7,641 1,371 1,725 0 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 Source: Dealogic refinancings / restructerings new money 10 ….with traditional shipping banks pulling out or silent….. Source: Dealogic 11 Some trends in bank debt Refocus on core clients & quality names Smaller facilities Little syndicated loan activity, bi-lateral and club deals Pricing increase Tighter covenants Reshuffling of lending market players as: Some banks closed for (shipping) business Geographic refocus – national link, support local business Reduction of bank’s balance sheets Government intervention Æ So today it’s all about: Core client Core region Core sectors – is this still shipping? (and full recourse, only strong parties, high quality assets, high returns) 12 …while we are back to a “bankers” market…. Loan Market Syndicated loan market has disappeared > bilateral and club deals only If open for business main focus on core clients and cherry picking Banks very busy with restructurings, waivers and anticipating covenant breaches Conservatism omnipresent: • LTV approx. 50% - 60% • Tenors are down 3 – 7 years • Recourse/Corporate guarantee structures • Strong and strict covenants • Strong vessel employment is a must Margin tendency > 300 bps Upfront minimum > 100 bps In shipping bank markets the mood is pessimistic Internal competition for equity within banks (so comparison of deals across industries) 13 ...but the funding demand remains high (despite cancellations)… Expected need for ship financing May ’09 (60% leverage) 250 200 155 150 125 97 USD bln 100 50 103 37 64 83 25 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Clarksons Equity Debt 14 Table of contents 1. Bank debt – some trends 2. Export Credit 3. (High Yield) Bonds and Equity Raising 4. Pension & Sovereign Wealth Funds 5. Islamic Funds 6. Fortis Bank Nederland / ABN AMRO - committed to shipping 15 Banks/governments in Asia support shipping industry…. The global financial crisis has accelerated a shift eastwards in the centre of ship finance as the traditional European banks continue to struggle. Many governments in Asia have come up with plans to lend to the shipping or shipbuilding industry that they consider to be crucial to their country’s economic well being. • The amount of finance available to shipbuilders and suppliers through Korea Exim and KEIC Korea Exim and KEIC will be up to USD 7.6 bln (KRW 9.2 trln). • In addition the Korean government is looking at providing USD 9.2 bln for loans to domestic and foreign shipowners. • Korea Asset Management and KDB are planning distress funds of up to USD 4.8 bln for ship acquisitions. • Export-Import Bank of China (China Exim Bank) has provided USD 5 bln in newbuilding loans to support the Chinese shipbuilding industry • Malaysian government has allocated an additional USD 542 mln (RM 2 bln) from its 2009 budget to a RM 1 bln shipping fund to assist shipping companies in the purchase of ships and upgrade shipyards. Sources: Marine Money, Tradewinds 16 Export Credit Agencies - Korea Korea Exim Bank Korea Exim Bank has committed USD 12.5 bln to the financing of orders at Korea yards since 2002. Ship Finance Volume (2008) : USD 1.2 bln 42.9% to European owners USD 300 mln facility to Odebrecht (Brazil) for two drillships ordered at DSME. Korea Exim Bank will be providing KRW 4 Billion to 10 Shipyards Korea Export Insurance Corporation (KEIC) Ship Finance Volume (2008) : USD 6.8 bln 41.6% European ship owners Safmarine Container CIDO Lines N.V. (TANKERS) (CONTAINERS) Deals done in 2009: US$ 136 mln US$ 66 mln Buyer’s credit Buyer’s credit 17 Export Credit Agencies (China and Germany) China China Exim Bank Since 1994 China Exim Bank has granted shipping/shipbuilding loans of over RMB 102.5 bln (USD 15 bln) Ship Finance Volume (2008): USD 7.45 bln Germany Euler Hermes A EUR 444 mln (USD 557 mln) loan financing a cruiseship for US line Royal Caribbean, built at German shipyard Meyer Werft, covered by a state-run export guarantee. Guaranteed loans for container ships built in Germany during 2007 and 2008 18 Table of contents 1. Bank debt – some trends 2. Export Credit 3. (High Yield) Bonds and Equity Raising 4. Pension & Sovereign Wealth Funds 5. Islamic Funds 6. Fortis Bank Nederland / ABN AMRO - committed to shipping 19 High yield bonds became an attractive substitute for loan debt.... Institutional loan market is going through unprecedented disturbance • As economy went into recession, typically flexible/pre-payable loan debt became either less attractive or simply unavailable for many borrowers with cyclical business profiles • Banks have been able to provide only a fraction of debt requirement to leveraged borrowers via secured facilities, but the bulk of this funding source disappeared • Investors which had traditionally provided the bulk of secured leverage via CLO/CDO vehicles lost ability to lend, but the market is beginning to mend..