Eastern Kentucky University Encompass Online Theses and Dissertations Student Scholarship January 2012 Civilian Aviation Screening: A Time-Series Analysis of Confiscated Firearms at Screening Checkpoints Shon Agard Eastern Kentucky University Follow this and additional works at: https://encompass.eku.edu/etd Part of the Criminology Commons, Defense and Security Studies Commons, and the Public Policy Commons Recommended Citation Agard, Shon, "Civilian Aviation Screening: A Time-Series Analysis of Confiscated Firearms at Screening Checkpoints" (2012). Online Theses and Dissertations. 60. https://encompass.eku.edu/etd/60 This Open Access Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Scholarship at Encompass. It has been accepted for inclusion in Online Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Encompass. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CIVILIAN AVIATION SCREENING: A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF CONFISCATED FIREARMS AT SCREENING CHECKPOINTS By SHON AGARD Bachelor of Science Eastern Kentucky University Richmond, Kentucky 2010 Submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Eastern Kentucky University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 2012 Copyright © Shon Agard, 2012 All rights reserved ii DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated to my parents Don and Lorna Agard for their unconditional love and support. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my advisor, professor, and friend, Dr. Norman Spain for teaching me how to become a successful student, giving me excellent advice when I needed it, and having confidence in my abilities. I would like to thank my thesis chair, Dr. Scotty Dunlap, for his assistance and patience over the duration of my post-graduate experience. Dr. Dunlap's support and encouragement has been invaluable. I would also like to thank Dr. Michael Collier for his excellent guidance and feedback throughout this thesis process. I would like to thank my mentor, Doug Kohlsdorf, for introducing me to the security profession and inspiring me to pursue the field. Finally, I would like to thank my family for supporting me throughout all of my studies. iv ABSTRACT This study investigated the aviation screening process and sought to determine if the federalization of the screening process had any effect on the number of firearm confiscations at civilian aviation screening checkpoints. The hypothesis of the study was that airport screening firearms confiscations (per one million screenings) were lower before the U.S. government (TSA) took over screening in 2001-2002. This quantitative research required the performance of an interrupted time series analysis. Interrupted time series analysis evaluates the impact of one or more events on the values in the time series. An interrupted time series analysis attempts to determine whether an outside event affected subsequent observations. For an example, did the implementation of a new economic policy improve economic performance, did a new gun ordinance reduce violent crimes; or in this study, did the federalization of civilian airport screening increase the number of confiscated firearms. Such comparison of an interrupted time series was applied to this study of firearm confiscations at airport checkpoints. Due to limited publically available data and inconsistencies in data collection, firearms were the only category of confiscations available that provided sufficient data points (years of data) to conduct quantitative research. The first data set includes persons screened and firearms confiscated from years 1990 through 2000. The second set of data includes persons screened and firearms confiscated from years 2003 through 2009. The total data that was used spans a twenty year period (1990-2009). An examination the theoretical screening process model used by the private sector and the process model currently in use by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) was performed to v determine if any technological advances or changes in screening process may have had an effect on the statistical results. The results of the investigation revealed the following findings: 1. There was no statistically significant difference between the number of firearm confiscations by private screeners and the number of firearms confiscated by government screeners. 2. Advancements in screening technology and screening processes had little to no effect on the number of confiscated firearms between both theoretical process models. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE I. Background ...................................................................................................... 1 Statement of the Problem ................................................................................ 4 Purpose of the Study ....................................................................................... 5 Potential Significance ..................................................................................... 5 Organization of the Study ............................................................................... 6 II. Literature Review ............................................................................................ 7 Policy and Regulation ..................................................................................... 7 Public Perception and Privacy ........................................................................ 13 Screening Technology and Performance ........................................................ 15 III. Methodology ................................................................................................... 27 Context of the Study ....................................................................................... 27 Research Hypothesis ....................................................................................... 27 Data Collection ............................................................................................... 27 Application of Time-Series Analysis .............................................................. 28 Data Analysis .................................................................................................. 29 Assumptions .................................................................................................... 32 Limitations ...................................................................................................... 32 Subjectivities or Bias ...................................................................................... 32 IV. Research Findings and Analysis ..................................................................... 33 Rate of Firearm Confiscations Per One Million Persons ................................ 35 Firearms Confiscated Averages ...................................................................... 38 Group 1 Average ....................................................................................... 38 Group 2 Average ....................................................................................... 38 Yearly Change in Confiscated Firearms ......................................................... 39 Percentage Change in Confiscated Firearms .................................................. 41 Hypothesis Test ............................................................................................... 43 Degrees of Freedom ........................................................................................ 44 vii Critical Value .................................................................................................. 44 Determining Variance ..................................................................................... 44 T-Test Calculation .......................................................................................... 46 T-Value Test Statistic ..................................................................................... 47 2001 Theoretical Screening Process Model (Private Screening Model) ........ 48 Current Theoretical Screening Process Model (TSA Screening Model) ........ 52 Theoretical Process Model Comparative Analysis ......................................... 58 V. Discussions and Implications .......................................................................... 60 Future Research .............................................................................................. 61 Summary ......................................................................................................... 62 List of References .................................................................................................... 65 viii LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE 1. Groups of Data ……………………………………………………..........34 2. Firearms Confiscated per One Million Persons ………………………….36 3. Average Confiscated Firearms by Year ………………………………….39 4. Average Confiscated Firearms by Group………………………………...39 5. Yearly Change of Confiscated Firearms Per Million ……………………40 6. Yearly Percentage Change of Confiscated Firearms Per Million …….....42 ix LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE PAGE 1. Rate of Firearms Confiscated Per One Million Screened ………………..37 2. Yearly Change of Confiscated Firearms Per Million…………………….41 3. Yearly Percentage Change of Confiscated Firearms Per Million ………..43 4. 2001 Screening process passenger flow prior to federalization …………49 5. Theoretical process model used in the 2001 checkpoint screening of passengers and accessible property (Private Screening Process Model) ...51 6. Layers of U.S. Aviation Security …………………………………..........52